The EU had in March this year released a "Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050" in which it analyzed implications of meeting its GHG goal. That report found that if investments to reduce GHGs were postponed, they would cost more from 2011 to 2050 and "create greater disruption in the longer term." The new report, "Energy Roadmap 2050," essentially provides directions as to what should follow the 2020 agenda, exploring routes toward decarbonization.
"Uncertainty is a major barrier to investment," the commission says in its new report. "The analysis of the projections conducted by the Commission, Member States and stakeholders show a number of clear trends, challenges, opportunities and structural changes to design the policy measures needed to provide the appropriate framework for investors."
Using a number of possible outlooks, including current trend scenarios and decarbonization scenarios (ranging from high energy efficiency and high renewables to low nuclear), the report concludes that decarbonization "is possible" and could be less costly than current policies in the long run. One reason for this is that "Exposure to fossil fuel price volatility would drop in decarbonisation scenarios as import dependency falls to 35-45% in 2050, compared to 58% under current policies."
All decarbonization scenarios show that by 2050, the EU could have an energy system based on higher capital expenditure and lower fuel costs, the report claims. The scenarios would require immense development of the grid, however, which could result in investment costs of between 1.5 trillion and 2.2 trillion euros by 2050 (with the higher end of the range reflecting support of renewables).
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