[Oilguy]

Kyrgyzstan’s mass anti-government protests last week were essentially the culmination of more than a decade of disillusionment and dissatisfaction that accumulated in the nation’s political, economic and social spheres from the period of Akayev to his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev, with virtually every Kyrgyz concerned about rising prices and falling standards of living, both issues of little concern and dimly understood in Washington.

BAKIYEV FLEES--The diplomatic logjam over the fate of deposed President Kurbanbek Bakiyev has apparently ended, as on 15 April Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency reported that Bakiyev, along with his younger brother Dzhanysh, former head of the country’s feared National Security Service (NSS) and the presidential guard and former Defense Minister Bakytbek Kalyev had fled the country. Kazakh Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kazakhstan Askar Abdyrakhmanov subsequently confirmed that their military aircraft arrived in Taras, Kazakhstan. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) office in Bishkek issued a statement that Bakiyev left “as a result of joint efforts by President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, (U.S. President) Barack Obama and the Russian Federation (President) Dmitrii Medvedev, as well as the active mediation of the OSCE, the UN and the EU.” According to interim government member Almambek Shykmamotov, Bakiyev was allowed to leave the country after signing a formal resignation statement.

While Kyrgyzstan’s political impasse has been resolved by Bakiyev’s sudden departure, expect to see furious behind the scenes politicking in Bishkek, particularly between Russia and the U.S. as both attempt to strengthen their influence with interim Prime Minister Roza Otumbayev’s administration at the expense of the other.

Two issues are likely to dominate Kyrgyzstan’s political scene in upcoming weeks – negotiating as much foreign aid as possible and recovering as much of the money looted by the Bakiyev kleptocracy as possible.

FISCAL DEPREDATIONS BY THE BAKIYEV FAMILY--The scale of the fiscal depredations of Bakiyev’s inner circle is quite startling for a country of only 5 million people. According to Natsional’nyi bank Kyguzstana Acting Chairman Zair Chokoev, during the period 7-8 April, when the unrest peaked, the country’s largest commercial bank, AziiaUniversalBanke (AUB), controlled by Bakiyev’s son Maksim, sent $200 million out of the country.

Such thievery has had an immediate impact on the country’s finances; provisional Finance Minister Temir Sariyev said that as the result of such depredations, the country’s budget deficit will amount to over $20 million in April alone.

Again outpacing Washington, on 14 April Russian Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin announced that Russia was Kyrgyzstan an immediate grant of $20 million and a soft loan of $30 million, commenting, “I think it is possible to provide humanitarian aid - a grant of $ 20 million for the priority of payments for social support…now, collection of customs and tax payments to ensure the ongoing costs of government in Kyrgyzstan is weak.”

WASHINGTON’S INTERIM POLICY--In contrast, Washington has yet to announce any relief aid. Instead, expect the U.S. in the upcoming days to focus obsessively on continued access to the Manas Transit Center airbase, 20 miles from the capital. While the base’s lease expires on 7 July, Otunbayeva has already stated that it will be “automatically” extended, though next year the issue is likely to arise again unless Washington institutes some major course corrections in its previous policies towards Kyrgyzstan. Washington has a major uphill struggle ahead, largely of its own making.

Senior leaders in the interim government that took power last week are accusing the United States of allowing Bakiyev family members to enrich themselves with inflated contracts supplying jet fuel to Manas Transit Center. According to provisional government senior members, companies controlled by the president’s 32-year-old son, Maksim, who last October was appointed by his father to head the country’s newly created Central Agency on Development, Investment, and Innovation, skimmed as much as $8 million a month from daily jet fuel sales to the base of up to a quarter million gallons, utilizing a monopoly and favorable taxes.

Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-kyrgyzs ... e-280.html

[evgeny]

Could we have another revolution on Russia's doorstep?

After civilian uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine, Kyrgyztan could be following the same path.

The reason that this is very important is because this could spark a similiar chain of events in Capian Sea countries. If this were to happen then the geopolitical impact on Russia would be huge because then it would start to lose influence in it's former Soviet territory and this could spark change within Russia itself.

It also helps the West get hold over the resources in that region.

Kyrgyztan: Is it another Ukraine or Georgia

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

Mass protests are under way in the south of Kyrgyzstan -- the third such upheaval in a former Soviet republic following Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" and the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia.

The following are points of similarity and difference between the Kyrgyz unrest and what took place in Ukraine and Georgia.

Protestors seize government buildings in Kyrgyztan.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ ... rnational/

More than 17,000 people rallied in Kyrgyzstan on Monday, seizing government buildings in the latest protests demanding the resignation of Soviet-era President Askar Akayev over allegations of election fraud.

Some analysts have suggested Kyrgyzstan is ripe for an outburst of mass protest similar to the peaceful revolutions that have swept two other former Soviet republics over the past two years: Georgia and Ukraine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anlVdbfnz1Q

British try to play this game after Russian revolution and civil war in 1917- 1923, this game was not good for British, smart person learn from another person mistakes, regular person learn from personal mistakes, idiots never learn

[Oilguy]

Nazarbayev’s Successful Diplomacy in Kyrgyzstan Signals Deeper Strategic Shifts

The recent crisis and instability in Kyrgyzstan, highlighted the fragility of security and the potential weakness of the political systems throughout the region and exposed new dimensions in the conduct of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy that may well prove pivotal for US energy interests in the Caspian Sea region. These complexities, often disguised or downplayed by the national governments in the region, attest to the deep political fault lines running through Eurasia as well as the potential for events in one state to ignite potential cross-border discontent and instability elsewhere.

Indeed, an analysis of the nuances in approach, media coverage, and official statements offered throughout the crisis, confirms how concerned some regimes are about their own internal stability, weaknesses in civil society, and their vulnerability to external influence. While, Kazakhstan’s leadership emerged with an enhanced reputation for contributing to defusing a possible civil war in neighboring Kyrgyzstan with the timely evacuation of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev on April 15 to Taraz in southern Kazakhstan, its underlying motives relate more to personal ambition and geostrategic maneuvering around the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Moscow’s efforts to promote a new European security architecture.

Silence in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

First, the silent regional observers must be identified. Since April 7, and the bloodshed on the streets of Bishkek that signaled the beginning of the end for the Bakiyev regime, drowning in corruption and promoting family interests at the expense of economically and politically developing the state, the governments and state media were predictably silent in both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

In the latter, only one official statement, through the Uzbek foreign ministry news agency “Jahon” noted that a “confrontation” had occurred resulting in “human casualties.” Understandably, since the authorities remain sensitive to the memory of the uprising in Andijan in May 2005 that witnessed a crackdown on civilians which resulted in widespread international condemnation, and in due course was one of the contributory factors in Tashkent’s decision to evict the US military later that year from the airbase in Kharshi-Khanabad.

Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-nazarba ... s-293.html

[Margarethe]

Too bad for Kyrgyztan if that happens. I rather like the traditional lifestyle they kept over the years - I hope this doesn't destroy that.