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Oil price surges above $101 on spreading unrest,

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Re: Oil surges above $101 on spreading unrest, Suez Canal fe

Unread postby Xenophobe » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 01:32:43

papa moose wrote:So what is up?


It's churn. Without anything of consequence to talk about, posters take what would otherwise be normal events, naval movements, government transitions (peaceful or otherwise), price volatility of commodities, minor inflation/deflation, stock market movements (in either direction), even websites going down, and turn them into.... SOMETHING IMPORTANT!!
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Re: Oil surges above $101 on spreading unrest, Suez Canal fe

Unread postby papa moose » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 02:02:19

Xenophobe wrote:
papa moose wrote:So what is up?


It's churn. Without anything of consequence to talk about, posters take what would otherwise be normal events, naval movements, government transitions (peaceful or otherwise), price volatility of commodities, minor inflation/deflation, stock market movements (in either direction), even websites going down, and turn them into.... SOMETHING IMPORTANT!!


8O Well blow me down with a feather, you've actually posted something intelligent for once.

Edit: Despite your valid comment, shutting down commercial traffic for an unscheduled transit of a carrier group suggests something unusal is afoot.
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Re: Oil surges above $101 on spreading unrest, Suez Canal fe

Unread postby eXpat » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 12:11:54

papa moose wrote:
eXpat wrote:12 American Warships, Including One Aircraft Carrier, And One Israeli Corvette, Cross Suez Canal On Way To Red Sea And Beyond


I don't see the signifigance of this, okay it was the biggest disruption to shipping in the Suez canal for many years but to what end?
The egyptian army providing cover onshore would sort of rule out an invasion of Egypt, also if this was an egyptian invasion it would be far easier and safer to attack from the Med.
So could be an invasion force heading for Iran... why forewarn the enemy this way, why not make a scheduled crossing that no one would have paid any attention to?
On the other hand if this carrier group is just heading to trade places with the Eisenhower (which is a reasonable explanation) why the big rush?
So what is up?

Power display papa moose, whatever their private talks are, either supporting Mubarak or asking him to step down, that was a display of the stick, that tactic has been used since the times of the ironclads.
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Re: Oil surges above $101 on spreading unrest, Suez Canal fe

Unread postby Xenophobe » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 20:12:14

papa moose wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:
papa moose wrote:So what is up?


It's churn. Without anything of consequence to talk about, posters take what would otherwise be normal events, naval movements, government transitions (peaceful or otherwise), price volatility of commodities, minor inflation/deflation, stock market movements (in either direction), even websites going down, and turn them into.... SOMETHING IMPORTANT!!


8O Well blow me down with a feather, you've actually posted something intelligent for once.


I do it all the time. It's only when the conclusions and objective observations I make conflict with groupthink that I get into trouble.

papa moose wrote:
Edit: Despite your valid comment, shutting down commercial traffic for an unscheduled transit of a carrier group suggests something unusal is afoot.


Something "unusual" is relative, I can find something "unusual" occurring every day of the week, every week of the year. For cryin out loud, people make a LIVING doing this sort of stuff, find three different facts, throw in a dose of speculation and some hysteria, presto! Instant conspiracy! Attach some end of the world scenario and you've got tomorrows blog topic.
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Re: Oil surges above $101 on spreading unrest, Suez Canal fe

Unread postby papa moose » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 21:20:07

eXpat wrote:
papa moose wrote:
eXpat wrote:12 American Warships, Including One Aircraft Carrier, And One Israeli Corvette, Cross Suez Canal On Way To Red Sea And Beyond


I don't see the signifigance of this, okay it was the biggest disruption to shipping in the Suez canal for many years but to what end?
The egyptian army providing cover onshore would sort of rule out an invasion of Egypt, also if this was an egyptian invasion it would be far easier and safer to attack from the Med.
So could be an invasion force heading for Iran... why forewarn the enemy this way, why not make a scheduled crossing that no one would have paid any attention to?
On the other hand if this carrier group is just heading to trade places with the Eisenhower (which is a reasonable explanation) why the big rush?
So what is up?

Power display papa moose, whatever their private talks are, either supporting Mubarak or asking him to step down, that was a display of the stick, that tactic has been used since the times of the ironclads.
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I understand what you are saying but i am struggling to understand their message.
I mean the last i heard the is a 3 way power struggle going on, rioters, police and army.
A show of force is unlikely to impress the rioters as they have been "out-gunned" since day one.
The police (aka Mubarack) IMO seem to be the most likely target of the threat, but again they seem to be "out-gunned" by the Egyptian army already, so a second more powerful force doesn't really change their situation.
That only leaves the Egyptian army as a possible target of this subtle threat.
IIRC the army isn't breaking it's neck to oust Mubarack but at the same time they haven't stamped out the rioters.
So what is Uncle Sam's implied threat?
"Support Mubarak and stamp out the rioters or else we will kick your arse, kick the rioters arse and make sure our good buddy keeps his cushy job" :?:
...or is it...
"Kick that slime ball Mubarack to the curb or else we will come in and kick him and you both in the arse" :?:
I mean if the US followed thru on either of these threats it would just bog them down in another unwinnable conflict (or would it be a 'police action'), whichever of the above threats is the actual, the rioting locals will not be eternally grateful for being "rescued". It will not be Pairs 1944, it will be Baghdad or Karbul 2010.
Is there another plausible threat that i am missing?
"That really annoying person you know, the one who's always spouting bullshit, the person who always thinks they're right?
Well, the odds are that for somebody else, you're that person.
So take the amount you think you know, reduce it by 99.999%, and then you'll have an idea of how much you actually know..."
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Re: Oil surges above $101 on spreading unrest, Suez Canal fe

Unread postby papa moose » Wed 09 Feb 2011, 21:30:53

Xenophobe wrote:I do it all the time. It's only when the conclusions and objective observations I make conflict with groupthink that I get into trouble.

Ya ya, okay i will give you this, not the "groupthink" comment, just the bit about your wacky conclusions. :-D
Xenophobe wrote:Something "unusual" is relative, I can find something "unusual" occurring every day of the week, every week of the year. For cryin out loud, people make a LIVING doing this sort of stuff, find three different facts, throw in a dose of speculation and some hysteria, presto! Instant conspiracy! Attach some end of the world scenario and you've got tomorrows blog topic.

There was an amusing case in Oz this week where a major radio network ran a story and did an interview based on a research paper calling for increased speed limits on the roads. About half way thru a live interview the host pulled the plug and went to a musical interlude when he cottoned on to the fact that the "research paper" was written by 3 ficticious authors. The organisation that funded the paper, 50% didn't exist and the other 50% was one guy with an email address and a mobile phone number.
http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/speed-scammers-stir-up-media-storm-20110209-1amaf.html?comments=17

But enough thread jacking, let go back to being afraid of the Suez Canal. :twisted:
"That really annoying person you know, the one who's always spouting bullshit, the person who always thinks they're right?
Well, the odds are that for somebody else, you're that person.
So take the amount you think you know, reduce it by 99.999%, and then you'll have an idea of how much you actually know..."
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