Carlhole wrote:...
However, nukes don't get built overnight. They take time. But fortunately, there will be plenty of fossil fuels to last through the period of dramatic nuclear facility construction. Expect to see a thousand state-of-the-art reactors built in China over the next several decades.
Huge new discoveries, such as the Jordanian oil shale, merely provide for additional ample supply of fossil fuels, exerting a moderating price pressure. Gradually, nuclear energy will allow for a complete phase out of the filthiest fossil fuels.
As a moderate, I have to say Carl that I hope you're right. Clearly there is lots of oil out there. How much longer will it be affordable for the middle class to burn it though? The "several decades" you cite to build out the Nuclear facilities (and also the electric car facilities IMO) is a mighty long time, given the ascendancy of the third world middle class who want cars.
Consider China. I recently read two interesting articles in the WSJ abut China and cars over the next decade. The first said Chinese car demand is expected to soar from about 10 million/year now to about 17 million/year by the end of the decade. So, that's roughly 135 million new cars. Allowing for say 35 million to be wrecked or die of old age, that gives us roughly 100 million net additional cars in China alone in the next decade.
The second article discussed China's "aggressive" plans to build "green" cars in the coming decade. If all goes well, China hopes to have a total of 5 million "green" cars on the road by the end of the decade. And that includes hybrids, which of course burn gasoline.
Now, think about India and the rest of the third world. And about how expensive it will be to get at much of the new oil being found (if/when various governments allow it given the environmental issues).
Everything may end up dandy, but with all the cries of doom over $4.00 gas in the U.S., I hate to see what things will look like economically if we have sustained average oil prices of $200ish (or more) in the next 10 to 15 years, as we struggle to transform away from it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.