[Jack]

Cooperation within groups serves only to oppose other groups - the enemy, however defined.

Weird.

No, it doesn't. Groups help each other survive by helping to procure food, raise children, make useful things. You ever tried to live on your own, with no other human to help you? Doesn't generally work.

Weird damn world you seem to live in.

Or, alternatively, groups help each other by eliminating threats and competitors. Generally, a team works better than an individual, if only because a single individual can't stay alert around the clock.

You say that I live in a weird damn world; yes, I can understand your perspective. But I offer a question for your consideration - what if my weird world is a vision of what is to come?

[jato]

My Fast says conservation is for the WEAK!

[johnmarkos]

Right, okay, except that: 1. the supply of ice cream can rebound after, whereas oil will not, ever; 2. it's pretty easy to stop buying ice cream if I want;

Economists say that oil demand is "short term inelastic" and "long term elastic." That is, it takes some time for demand to decline after a price rise. The reason for this is that most people won't go out and by a new, more efficient car (or change their habits in any other significant ways) in response to a short term price spike. However, if the price increase lasts for many months or years, they adapt their habits accordingly.

Okay, but are you maintaining that the price of oil has to reduce all the way back to its original level in order to have an effect on markets? Not trying to argue the point with you any longer, just wanting to understand the position; because it seems to me that any noticeable change in demand of such an important commodity should have an effect on markets.

No, I agree that conservation (demand destruction) has an effect on price (and the markets). It's just that in a condition of declining production, that effect is likely to be less significant than that of the production decline itself. See my scenarios above.

At the beginning of this thread, Aaron argued that conservation is wicked because it perpetuates the ethic that energy use can grow indefinitely. My point is that in a condition of post-peak oil production decline, it takes a implausibly great deal of conservation to counteract the lost production. Therefore, it is likely that all consumers must shrink their oil consumption in this PO scenario, irrespective of one nation's (or individual's) conservation.

[coyote]

Therefore, it is likely that all consumers must shrink their oil consumption in this PO scenario, irrespective of one nation's (or individual's) conservation.

That I do definitely agree with -- but maintain that there will always be a subset of rich fatcat hog consumers, who will greedily use up whatever small offsets might be made through efficiency or conservation. Unless they get lynched, of course.

But eventually, more seriously, paradigm shift will be forced on us, one way or the other: either we'll succeed through it, or we will realize we've failed once it's too late. Once way or the other.

Now I think I'll go have some ice cream. Ben & Jerry's.

[Aaron]

Interesting replies...

Many of you show great promise.

I shall enjoy harvesting you.

[Doly]

That I do definitely agree with -- but maintain that there will always be a subset of rich fatcat hog consumers, who will greedily use up whatever small offsets might be made through efficiency or conservation. Unless they get lynched, of course.

What small offsets? Do you still believe there will be any extra energy left?

[Aaron]

I have responded in more depth to your jaded view of human nature in Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation In summary it proves that altruism is a natural as brutality and is often the more appropriate response

I gotta love your optimism...

However...

If you didn't exist, it would be necessary to invent you.

- Some old, dead, smart dude.

&

There ain't no safety in numbers... or anything else.

- Less old, but just as dead, smart dude.

[coyote]

That I do definitely agree with -- but maintain that there will always be a subset of rich fatcat hog consumers, who will greedily use up whatever small offsets might be made through efficiency or conservation. Unless they get lynched, of course.

What small offsets? Do you still believe there will be any extra energy left?

I never did believe that, no. I'm sure that attempts will be made, through conservation and increased efficiency; but that whatever small successes there are will be swamped by overall consumption. No, I think that every year after Peak, we will pump, and use up, all that we're able to. Where I disagree with Aaron and Jack is that I think the attempts at conservation and efficiency will be great practice for later down the road, and will be necessary for the paradigm shift we'll be needing if our species is going to make it.

[grabby]

This is an interesting thread.

Pstar speaking from the heart and hopes and Aaron from truth and logic.
Well, it all boils down to what speed are we going off the cliff? Slow or fast, sooner or later.

It is better to buy less, use less and really cut down, the shock won't be so bad, for the problem is not with things, it is with human nature.

Stress is better spread out over time and actually we need stress, we need to get used to things.

When the POW's were thrown into cells 5x5 and had to defecate on their floor cells and were randomly waken by beatings, they got used to it people can too.

Mentally , I think we need to prepare now, cut as far back as you can, sell one of the cars, shop every two weeks then finally every month. This will prepare you.
help others, Sell the big digital screen tv, while you can, super stereo system, sell it, get used to little, once in a while for good sound, put on headphones, that is a good as it gets anyway. lots cheaper.

Get out, actually drive over and visit friends, go to the neighbors each evening, visit, physically. What a concept. We like it, we are doing this more and more now it is actually fun.

Maybe when gas pumps shut down where your local town shuts down, these neighbor friends will be in your kitchen shaking and crying and you will have to support them you were ready.


, go on walks get a bike start living in the future.
It won't HURT you and it is HEALTHIER and in fact you will not go into nervous breakdown and depression.

When you hit depression many never come out again.
I am selling any piece of junk I havnt used for 6 months, its junk.

My ideal is get down to a bed a table and some books, and good walking shoes. I have a long way to go.

but this way it is a challenge not a shock.

Conservation to help society?
it can't be done now, we are using 80 million barrels a day.
This is not understandable or we wouldn't even think of alternate energy.

Alternate enrgy is a red herring.

But it isnt bad. I mean a van with two solar panels on top can charge your little batteries and you can run and charge your laptop to run a couple hours a day, its feree, why not, solar is great but it wont be replacing oil.

Alternate energy is great, it gets you used to whats coming.
BUT dont spend any mony on it, you can downsize without spending any money, and without sonsuming.

I just bought a laptop and am about ready to retire my terrabyte monsters I have about had it with windows, and I still use them for music.

Get your music collection together, burn your favorite MP3's get a
Gmini or small device.

I just bought a 120 gig (sorry) Western digital passport, and everything I will have will be on that and the laptop, I plan to be mobile. maybe soon I will sell that too.

We will have some months of hard times while we still have houses and things and it will just be easier to be very light.
don't worry about the power, you arent helping the world.
YOU ARE HELPING YOURSELF.

get used to the minimum there will be a BIG step from a VERY MINIMUM lifestyle now to whats coming.

Dont stock up food.
have enough for a few week,s but beyond that who wants to be locked up in a house for months?
man, go live in the woods enjoy it while you can.

you think society will sing kumbaya and clothes their eyes together and walk to work?

fine, thats a nice dream, you can live it if you want, but when the things run out it will be family by family.

Here is how to prepare:

ask yourself:
I LOST MY JOB AND CANT GET ANOTHER. start from there.
that is how it will first start with you. why have 6 months of food sotred up, you arent going to sit there for six months and eat it, its hard to move 6 months of foot around. food storage is not going to work.

In the big depression storing 2 years of food would have not helped a bit for anyone, food wasnt the problem.
there will be food, you'll survive, you just wont have a lot. and you sure wont have a job.

It starts with you loosing your job, think of it that way.
that is how it starts.
so dont have a lot, have a vehicle you can live out of for a while and be mobile.
like a 6 cylender van or something that is the best prep.
when there is not any fuel that would be an ideal home for many months small, easy to heat.
(3 people in a van keep it very warm.

anyway, it will be much different than we thought it will be basically you loose your income and your job and stay that way.

Conservation is necessary , but it is to get each of us ready.

also get rid of the sparkles glitter and glam and all the time wasting things, enjoy real life, get out into nature, get used to it.

Just two cents

[oowolf]

Any species that acts like ours has for the last few thousand years (especially the last few hundred) deserves extinction. Dieoff is an escapable eventuality. The fact that I've lived a life of voluntary simplicity won't delay the crash much. When I moved to Montana 30 years ago there were many folks here who still lived as "bottom feeders". Now the county is filling up with brain dead consumeroids who call me "the crazy guy who walks everywhere". Last week a 51 year old woman made a wrong turn onto a forest service road and continued to drive up into a pass blocked by 8 feet of wet snow; the car got stuck and the idiot woman CONTINUED WALKING UPHILL despite the fact there was a ranch just 1 mile BACK DOWN the road. She and her 15 year old son died of hypothermia. This nation is full of walking dead just as out-of-it, who have no clue as to the real meaning of human life and just exist to consume mindlessly. I can hardly wait for most of them to go. When there's no more gas and the cell phones quit they'll just sit down and die because they had no other excuse for living in the first place. Sounds harsh but that really is the way it is. I am continually astounded how seemingly UNCONSCIOUS people have become; they have definitely been conditioned NOT to think critically. Algae are more intelligent. EOR

[coyote]

When there's no more gas and the cell phones quit they'll just sit down and die because they had no other excuse for living in the first place. Sounds harsh but that really is the way it is. I am continually astounded how seemingly UNCONSCIOUS people have become; they have definitely been conditioned NOT to think critically. Algae are more intelligent. EOR

Grandfather Stalking Wolf called modern society "The Land of the Living Dead." When Tom came back from a year in the wild, he said he half-expected people on the street to actually bump into each other, like zombies. Unconsciousness, extreme low awareness, is what they were talking about. With that low level of awareness it is impossible to live in the wild; and it takes time to learn to change it. That's one of the things I'm working on now. If these 'civilized' people are ever put into a genuine survival situation, survivability will be low.

[holmes]

Here is another F@CK YOU to the selfish pricks. and we continue to give out tax dollars to the shit birds. Edumacation. Fk em.
More widdle pictures. OOGOO GOO gOO. Less Math and ecology! Shit Will hit the fan jack offs. Youll be ripped out of your little "ECO" friendly mcmansion and aprtment. The refrigerator ripped out and thrown out the 10 floor window. the cities and burbs are graveyards already. Its all about ME.

[holmes]

When there's no more gas and the cell phones quit they'll just sit down and die because they had no other excuse for living in the first place. Sounds harsh but that really is the way it is. I am continually astounded how seemingly UNCONSCIOUS people have become; they have definitely been conditioned NOT to think critically. Algae are more intelligent. EOR

Grandfather Stalking Wolf called modern society "The Land of the Living Dead." When Tom came back from a year in the wild, he said he half-expected people on the street to actually bump into each other, like zombies. Unconsciousness, extreme low awareness, is what they were talking about. With that low level of awareness it is impossible to live in the wild; and it takes time to learn to change it. That's one of the things I'm working on now. If these 'civilized' people are ever put into a genuine survival situation, survivability will be low.

Tom Brown. Cool dude. Your thinking, man.

[Zardoz]

Fascinating thread. Some amazing thought processes demonstrated here.

Aaron and Jack - Question for you sunny-faced Pollyannas:

Assuming you understand what life was like in the 30s during the Great Depression, can you explain why people did not turn into the marauding monsters you both seem to think we'll become when TSHTF in a few years?

They didn't, you know. In fact, there was a hell of a spirit of cooperation back then. How do you explain that? Lack of sufficient firepower?

[Aaron]

Fascinating thread. Some amazing thought processes demonstrated here.

Aaron and Jack - Question for you sunny-faced Pollyannas:

Assuming you understand what life was like in the 30s during the Great Depression, can you explain why people did not turn into the marauding monsters you both seem to think we'll become when TSHTF in a few years?

They didn't, you know. In fact, there was a hell of a spirit of cooperation back then. How do you explain that? Lack of sufficient firepower?

Ahh the "good ole days" argument.

Watch this... I don't even need to post my thinking here anymore... lol.

Some of these folks know me so well they do a better job stating my position... than I do.

So ok folks... why no 1930's style "friendly" depression?

Hobo's, fleas, & spellin bees... shucks... ain't nuthin but a thang.

[Pops]

Yawn...

Nukes

[Zardoz]

Please re-read my question. I asked why people were the way they were back then, rather than the ravenous beasts Jack insists we all are, deep in our black hearts. Why did they not slaughter each other by the millions?