Plantagenet wrote:Pops wrote:To clarify, we'll use this definition for purposes of the poll:
re·ces·sion
rəˈseSH(ə)n/
noun
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
That definition doesn't match up very well with what the world economy has actually been going through since 2008. What we're going through is lot more severe than that. Try this definition instead---it matches up really well with what is actually happening:
[i]In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a recession...
In the US we've had weak growth, with occasional negative GDP in one quarter (the most recent negative quarter in the US was the first quarter of 2014, and in the EU they are on their third recession. 6 years of crappy economic growth ain't your garden-gariety recession. The 2009 collapse and subsequent weak global economic picture fits much better with the definition of a depression (see above). The current depression is hitting harder in the EU then it is the US, while the 1930s depression hit harder in the US and mostly weaker in Europe. But make no mistake about it---we are in year 6 of global economic weakness.
1). We've had no recession in the US since April 2009. By the definition you give, a depression is worse than a recession. So then, by the kind of logic only known to zerohedge, you claim the US has been in a depression. OK.
I'm sure that plays well in the doomer echo chamber, at any rate. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united- ... gdp-growth
2). The last time the global GDP was negative was in 2009. The real (inflation adjusted) global GDP growth rate has averaged well over 3% since then. Not a global depression by any stretch.
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=66
3). If you want to see a depression in the next few years, watch Greece. Given how they're behaving, if they default a depression seems likely. (Too bad blaming the rest of the world won't cause economic growth, because they could quickly resolve the problem, if so).
If you want to call moderate inflation-adjusted global growth since mid 2009 "six years of global economic weakness", fine. That doesn't make it a "depression" any more than calling an aardvark a helicopter means it can fly.
