[Sixstrings]

South China Sea: China may establish air defense zone after losing court ruling

Liu Zhenmin, China's vice foreign minister, told a press conference in Beijing that China's sovereignty over the bulk of the South China Sea wouldn't be affected by a decision by the International Court for Arbitration, which went overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines.
Liu said imposing an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the region, which would require aircraft flying over the waters to first notify China, would depend on the threat level China faced.

"If our security is threatened, we of course have the right to set it up," Liu said.

China set up an ADIZ over the East China Sea in 2013, prompting an outcry from Japan and the United States, but the zone has not been fully enforced.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/

South China Sea trouble looms and Australia’s vulnerable: Andrew Bolt

OH DEAR. There’s now a risk of war with China over its illegal grab for territory to our north, and here we are with our pants down.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will have to beg China to give us a few decades to prepare for this showdown over the South China Sea.

Beijing has already deployed warships there, to tighten its grip, even though the Permanent Court of Arbitration this week ruled its claim over the vast area was illegal.

China has denounced the ruling as part of a plot by the US and the Philippines and will defend the armed islands it’s built all over the area. This could get ugly. But Turnbull needs China to hang on for 50 years before pressing any buttons so we can slowly build all his 12 you-beaut new Barracuda submarines. ...

China has for years claimed it actually owns nearly 80 per cent of the South China Sea — that stretch of sea between China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.

It doesn’t only want to protect its southern flank or control the sea lanes through which come nearly two thirds of the energy supplies for its traditional rivals — Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

It also wants the rich fishing grounds of what it claims is its “historic” territory, and is even hungrier for what lies underneath — proven oil reserves of seven billion barrels, and vast reserves of natural gas.

To back its claim with muscle, it has grabbed reefs and outcrops around the sea to build fortified military bases, and has reclaimed almost 1300ha of land in the Spratly island chain alone.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/south-china-sea-trouble-looms-and-australias-vulnerable-andrew-bolt/news-story/3c5d2d80bf2d412fc4a68694492d7056

I don't know if this is true or not, about a "Chinese trojan horse in Australia," but I found this comment interesting:

There are many in our almost million strong community who at every level of government,council and business spy and report back to Beijing anything that is of strategic or intellectual interest.

We saw in the lead up to the Beijing Olympics and when the Dalai Lama last visited that students are ordered to protest they will in an instant and in a militant manner.

Same with various Sino-Australian business groups here who have shown on a number of occasions that their loyalty is 100 % to their mother country and have warned and threatened our government and will continue to do so more stridently as they grow in power.

The Trojan horse is already inside the gates eating hay

Some other Australian comments:

We are allowing Foreign Chinese to buy large properties...and houses here.... THAT has to be stopped and Chinese Real Estate Agents taken a good look at...because ...they very obviously instigate these foreign buyers from Chine....If the buyers are not Australian...no sale!.If this goes on in years to come Australia will be an extension of China...and our young will never have hope of purchasing properties themselves...it will be all

Chinese!!!

If Australia is viewed as vulnerable in this situation there is a simple solution ... invite the USA to increase the base Julia Gillard very astutely gave them in the Northern Territory ...problem solved !!

Vulnerable????? They don't have to invade....we are selling the place to them at bargain basement prices.......We are such fools, they will own us without firing a shot!

[Sixstrings]

Beware China: America fights back in the South China Sea

Beijing’s moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the region—one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. This alignment will further U.S. goals: to continue to mount a forward defense, to keep the seas and skies free, and to promote prosperity and the spread of democracy. ...

This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, which initially launched the effort to move beyond America’s traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. But the new map’s contours truly began to crystallize earlier this year, when the Philippines’ Supreme Court ruled as constitutional a new defense agreement with the United States. Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s.

During the George W. Bush administration, U.S. forces in the Philippines were focused primarily on aiding the Philippine military in its counterterror fight. Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. Importantly, American access to four airbases (with potentially more to be made available at a later date)—especially those on Luzon and Palawan—will make U.S. air power “resident” in Southeast Asia.

This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Importantly, the Air Force’s presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean.

The U.S. military’s enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLAN’s underground naval base on Hainan island.

Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Sea’s western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. The USS John C. Stennis tied up there for a few days in April.

Even if Beijing’s island-building campaign succeeds in turning the South China Sea into a Chinese lake, it will be one in which Chinese forces are constantly monitored and from which they can only depart with implicit American acquiescence.

Then again, China may see its efforts in the South China Sea blunted. The Obama administration’s decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. Over the longer term, American defense contractors may have their sights set on sales of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters.

Vietnam already flies modern Russian fighter jets and is expecting delivery this year of its sixth and final Kilo-class submarine—submarines so quiet that the U.S. Navy refers to them as “black holes.” If the Chinese Navy wants to have its way in the South China Sea, it will have to dedicate resources to tracking those subs, a task with which the PLAN has limited experience. ...

The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. A new arrangement for U.S. naval access to Cam Ranh Bay may well be in the offing. Hanoi will move cautiously and such access may be limited to the purposes of logistical support for the time being. But if China continues to play its cards wrong and if the United States proves itself a dependable partner, American warships could one day regularly operate out of Cam Ranh Bay, the strategically located port-of-call, for the first time since the Vietnam War.

U.S. access to the military facilities on the South China Sea’s southern flank, however, would shift the region’s balance of power in America’s favor. Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compass—especially when combined with regional states’ advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investment—would enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. It would also open the option of persistently jamming Chinese radar installations in the Spratlys.

Chinese missiles on the mainland already hold all U.S. Asian bases at risk. Dispersed American forces would act as countermeasure and would complicate defense planning for the Chinese military and political calculations for Beijing, while ensuring U.S. forces are positioned to support each other in the event of a crisis.

Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea.

All countries want positive economic and security ties with both China and the United States. Southeast Asians do not want to and should not have to choose between the two, but Chinese behavior is moving some states to pick sides—or at least to lean in one direction or another. ...

The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asia’s future is prosperous, peaceful and free.
https://www.aei.org/publication/beware-china-america-fights-back-in-the-south-china-sea/

Interesting, according to the above article Singapore "quietly" built a dock that can accommodate US aircraft carriers, the only port other than Yokohama Japan.

Incidentally, the littoral class of ships was designed for shallow water operations like the south china sea:

WORLDS BEST !!! US Navy Littoral Ships & Patrol Boats
https://youtu.be/7QHIJKKIrP0

US Navy’s $4.4 Billion Battleship Gigantic Destroyer is ‘Nearly Invisible’

The next generation 610-foot destroyer, the largest in the US fleet, appears as little more than a 50-foot vessel on radar making the behemoth nearly undetectable to adversaries until it is too late. ...

So what does $4.4 billion buy you?
The next generation destroyer stretches 610 feet at the waterline, with a unique angular design that makes it 50 times more difficult for radar to detect its presence at sea.

The destroyer not only can avoid detection on the high seas, but it is also arguably the most deadly battleship in the US fleet. The USS Zumwalt comes with firing cannons that can hit sea or land targets over 100 miles away. The high speed destroyer is powered by turbines inspired by the Boeing 777 airplane and is claimed to be able to top 35 mph.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the new destroyer is that its functions are largely automated, and the ship requires a crew of only 140.
https://youtu.be/xoz0XJ5YCWs

[vtsnowedin]

Once the Chinese have finished building "Our" new air base on these shoals we must take care to leave enough cargo aircraft or ships functional to ship all the Chinese personnel that survive our Seal teams assault back to China so we don't have to do a Check point Charlie reenactment.

[Sixstrings]

:twisted: Once the Chinese have finished building "Our" new air base on these shoals we must take care to leave enough cargo aircraft or ships functional to ship all the Chinese personnel that survive our Seal teams assault back to China so we don't have to do a Check point Charlie reenactment.

Alright George Patton, that's going a bit far (even if you're right ).

Here's my opinion..

As far as I'm concerned, the Philippines was the western Pacific defense line going back to the days of Teddy Roosevelt. Japan made a move to grab Philippines, and Hawaii, back in WWII.

Who knows about China, maybe the nationalism they've got brewing could boil out of control one day and fascism sweep the place and it's a billion people yelling "that's OUR sea, your Hague court is bunch of crap!"

The whole idea of standing up to China is to direct them in the opposite direction, toward being a responsible globalist partner in the world that WORKS WITH the other nations of the world.. so, the idea is to checkmate them early before they get too big of a head and think they own everything, and just keep China in line with everybody else.. everybody else in the world follows the law, and can't just annex things and grab things.

Hopefully China is stood up to a bit, and that would cause them to change their behavior some and tone it down and everyone get along, per international norms and law.

But if it doesn't and they get worse, then it would be easier to not ever lose the Philippines in the first place, than have to re-take it, and have no toe-holds at all in the Pacific and the line is at Hawaii -- and the whole region has all allied to China anyway, because we left.

So.. I think I would conclude with the former commander of the Pacific theater, when he says the US ought to say it's gonna defend the Scarborough Shoal off the Philippines coast.

Philippines is our outpost in the far Pacific, the far west line of defense. (if nothing else, we have to defend Australia.. we all love Australians, right? Well okay, we need to be in the Philippines to take care of those Aussies behind that line)

So it makes sense to me that we shouldn't let China build on any islands, too close to Philippines. Not something as close in as Scarborough Shoal.

As the state deparment recently said -- 5 of the USA's 7 treaty alliances are in the Pacific. We're responsible for Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Philippines, others. So, we gotta do what we gotta do, that's how it is.

Really, in defending the Philippines, it's like defending US territory. Because that was American way back in Teddy Roosevelt's time, China ought to know better than building around there, that's same as Hawaii.

[Sixstrings]

Indonesia response:

Indonesia details defence plan after South China Sea ruling

JAKARTA: Indonesia will sharply strengthen security around its South China Sea islands where there have been clashes with Chinese vessels, the defence minister said on Wednesday (Jul 13), a day after Beijing's claims in the sea were declared invalid.

In an interview with AFP, Ryamizard Ryacudu said bolstering defences around Indonesia's Natuna Islands would involve deploying warships, an F-16 fighter jet, surface-to-air missiles, a radar and drones, as well as constructing new ports and improving an airstrip.

The military build-up, which started in recent months, would be completed in "less than a year," he said.

"This will be our eyes and ears," the retired general said. "So that we can really see what is happening in the Natunas and the surrounding area in the South China Sea."

Unlike several of its Southeast Asian neighbours, Indonesia has long maintained it has no maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea and does not contest ownership of any territory.

But Beijing's claims overlap Indonesia's exclusive economic zone - waters where a state has the right to exploit resources - around the Natunas, and there has been an upsurge in clashes between Indonesian patrol and navy boats and Chinese fishing vessels and coastguards.

Indonesia has become increasingly irate over Chinese incursions into its waters and after a clash last month, President Joko Widodo visited the Natunas on a warship with his cabinet to send a message to China that Jakarta is serious about defending the remote archipelago.

As well as the military hardware, Indonesia will send special air force and marine task forces as well as an army battalion to the Natunas, once barracks and housing have been built, Ryacudu said.

He insisted that Indonesia was not adding to the growing militarisation of the South China Sea, and suggested it had a right to defend its borders.

"It is our front door, why is it not guarded?" he said.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/indonesia-details-defence/2953838.html

[Sixstrings]

Chinese tourist tours, to the man-made islands:

Taking a cruise to disputed South China Sea islands
Tourist boat cruises to Paracel islands highlight China's public relations moves to stake its claim on them.

"We will NOT let foreign invaders take any part part of our land," he said. "Now, please raise your hand, and swear with me!"

All the tourists raised their right fists up past their heads. Most of them also had a smile - and a smartphone in the left hand to record the moment.

"I love the motherland! I love Xisha!"

The red national flag slowly climbed to the top of the pole during the loud, 50-second-long national anthem.

Following suit is the obbligato group photo, when the guests participate in a loud Q&A session with the tour guide.

"Is Xisha beautiful?"

"Beautiful!"

In the afternoon, tourists were taken to an even smaller island, Yagong Dao, or Male Duck Island. It is only half the size of the Quanfu, but with inhabitants. There is no sand on the island; instead shells and dead coral lie everywhere.
http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/asia/2016/07/cruise-disputed-south-china-sea-islands-160712144537521.html

This stuff's nuts. It's like Russia with Crimea.. except China is BUILDING crimeas, and an artificial island built over what was once a living coral reef, becomes "the motherland." And then it's "defend the motherland!"

But the motherland was not there until they built the island, it was a coral reef before.

They're expanding their motherland, to take over other people's motherlands.

There's Russia, and Not Russia. There's China, and Not China.

The tour guide showed us a big stone tablet, on which it says "military forbidden zone" and "no landing without permission", both in English and Vietnamese. I asked the tour guide when this stone tablet was set up. He said he was not sure, but added: "This warns the Vietnamese … not to come here."

"Yes!" one of the tourists agreed. "If they dare come here, we'll kick them out!"

"I've been to many islands and seaside cities, including Palao. This trip is boring, there's nothing to do," said one elderly lady from Anhui province. "This cruise is more of a political tour rather than for leisure."

[vtsnowedin]

Six strings:
If your talking about anything near the Philippines you should be quoting Douglas MacArthur not Patton.
As to your quote:

Hopefully China is stood up to a bit, and that would cause them to change their behavior some and tone it down and everyone get along, per international norms and law.

What better way to stand up to them ( a bit) then taking away their little air base that they have neither the Navy or Air force to defend and no civilians on it to become collateral damage?
Now before you type out six pages of why it will not work at least type out one page of your better idea.

[Sixstrings]

Six strings:
If your talking about anything near the Philippines you should be quoting Douglas MacArthur not Patton.

Well, both generals had a habit of getting a bit ahead of themselves, so I was teasing you with the Patton reference. But yep, MacArthur was one of the greats:

General Mcarthur: "People of the Philippines, I have returned"
https://youtu.be/Wv1PF0tAE1s

"People of the Philippines, I have returned. By the grace of almighty God, our forces stand again upon Philippine soil. We have come, dedicated and committed, to the task of destroying every vestige of enemy control over your people.

The hour of your redemption is here." -- Douglas MacArthur

What better way to stand up to them ( a bit) then taking away their little air base that they have neither the Navy or Air force to defend and no civilians on it to become collateral damage?
Now before you type out six pages of why it will not work at least type out one page of your better idea.

Well, just strategically, it would have been easier to stop the island construction back when it first got started up. Now it's a different situation, very large artificial islands complete with military bases and lighthouses.

COULD it be done? Yes, of course, there's absolutely no match for the US Navy and Army and air force. That's flat out, China is no match at all.

BUT, there are just many factors involved.

Firstly, the US interest really is PEACE and regional stability -- that's why the US is the preferred leader in the Pacific (and Europe) to start with, because the Americans are the good guys. Our country upholds international law, and rule of law, and what the diplomats call "a rules based global order."

Secondly -- it's not clear yet where China is, on the frenemy scale. How much is it going over to enemy, versus friend. So we gotta wait and see and find out. Maybe do more freedom of navigation patrols, and within twelve miles of those islands (which the court has ruled are not sovereign territory).

And then just see what the Chinese do, and go from there. Who knows, maybe they'd be reasonable after being stood up to a bit.

US policy, right now, is just that the US government is waiting to see what happens (maybe talks, maybe not) between Philippines and China.

And then while that's going on, the US is going to continue to do freedom of navigation patrols, and continue to work with US allies and partners in the pacific, make new friends and do business deals.

What really SHOULD happen, is that what you're asking me vts? Actually, the world ought to stand up about China -- diplomatic pressure -- about them building these big islands on top of coral reefs and then they call it "the motherland!" It's destroying reefs, if nothing else. And they're hunting endangered sea turtles. Environmental issues were another part of that Hague ruling.

And international arbitration and law is important to all countries, ESPECIALLY smaller nations that can't just fight it out with larger powers in a "might makes right" world.

[Sixstrings]

US Navy’s Futuristic New Weapons Could be Key to Limiting a Clash with China
Lasers, railguns, and hi-velocity projectiles may let warships defend themselves without escalation
http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/u-s-navys-futuristic-new-weapons-could-be-key-to-limiting-a-clash-with-china/

China hacked the FDIC - and US officials covered it up, report says
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/13/technology/china-fdic-hack/index.html

China is crushing the U.S. in 'economic warfare'
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/30/news/economy/china-us-war-by-other-means/

U.S. Republicans urge penalties for China firm over Iran exports
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-iran-idUSKCN0ZT2S7

[Tanada]

Anyone who wants to deliberately provoke a shooting war with a country armed with nuclear tipped ICBM's, cruise missiles and bombs is IMO off their rocker and needs to be placed in a straight jacket forthwith.

[Sixstrings]

China's actions in South China Sea seen as defying ruling

HANOI, Vietnam — Two Chinese aircraft landed on disputed reefs and Beijing's coast guard reportedly blocked a Filipino boat from a contested shoal, in acts of defiance after a landmark ruling found China's vast claims in the South China Sea legally baseless.

Vietnam protested Thursday that the recent Chinese actions seriously violated Vietnamese sovereignty.

Chinese state media reported that two Chinese civilian aircraft landed successfully Wednesday on two new airstrips on Mischief and Subi reefs.

In the Philippines, ABS-CBN TV network reported that Chinese coast guard ships blocked a Filipino fishing boat from approaching the disputed Scarborough Shoal on Thursday. Journalist Chiara Zambrano reported the two speedboats approached and encircled the Filipino boat carrying her and local fishermen.

One video the network aired showed the Filipino boat being tailed by a white Chinese coast guard ship in an area Zambrano said was a few miles (kilometers) from Scarborough, where the local fishermen were blocked from entering to fish. Another video showed the Chinese coast guard personnel using a bullhorn and ordering the Filipinos to leave "this area immediately."

Mayor Arsenia Lim of the northwestern town of Masinloc, where the fishermen live, said they sailed to Scarborough to test China's compliance with the ruling.

"What they're doing is bad because it shows as if there is no law," Lim told The Associated Press by telephone. "Our government should defend the livelihood of these people because it's the only place where they get their income." ...

Vietnam Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh demanded Beijing cease actions that complicate the situation.

"Despite the opposition of Vietnam and concerns by the international community, those actions conducted by China have seriously violated Vietnam's sovereignty and are unlawful and cannot change the fact about Vietnam's sovereignty over the Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagoes," Binh told reporters, referring to the Paracel and Spratly chains of islands and reefs.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said if anyone challenged China's interests with provocative actions, "China will surely make a resolute response."
http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/07/14/chinas-actions-south-china-sea-seen-defying-ruling/87088126/

U.S. launches quiet diplomacy to ease South China Sea tensions

The United States is using quiet diplomacy to persuade the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and other Asian nations not to move aggressively to capitalize on an international court ruling that denied China's claims to the South China Sea, several U.S. administration officials said on Wednesday.

"What we want is to quiet things down so these issues can be addressed rationally instead of emotionally," said one official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private diplomatic messages.

Some were sent through U.S. embassies abroad and foreign missions in Washington, while others were conveyed directly to top officials by Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Secretary of State John Kerry and other senior officials, the sources said.

"This is a blanket call for quiet, not some attempt to rally the region against China, which would play into a false narrative that the U.S. is leading a coalition to contain China," the official added.

The effort to calm the waters following the court ruling in The Hague on Tuesday suffered a setback when Taiwan dispatched a warship to the area, with President Tsai Ing-wen telling sailors that their mission was to defend Taiwan's maritime territory. ...

"We don't have a dog in this fight other than our belief ... in freedom of navigation," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told a briefing on Wednesday. "What we want to see in this very tense part of Asia, of the Pacific, rather, is a de-escalation of tensions and we want to see all claimants take a moment to look at how we can find a peaceful way forward." ...

CONTINGENCY PLAN

However, if that effort fails, and competition escalates into confrontation, U.S. air and naval forces are prepared to uphold freedom of maritime and air navigation in the disputed area, a defense official said on Wednesday.

Democrat Ben Cardin of Maryland, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said confrontation is less likely if the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries work with the United States rather than on their own.

"I don't think China wants a confrontation with the United States," he told reporters. "They don’t mind a confrontation with a Vietnamese fishing boat, but they don’t want a confrontation with the United States."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-usa-idUSKCN0ZT2TY

[AgentR11]

However, if that effort fails, and competition escalates into confrontation, U.S. air and naval forces are prepared to uphold freedom of maritime and air navigation in the disputed area, a defense official said on Wednesday.

Considering that China is more concerned and more interested in freedom of maritime and aviation navigation in the SCS than anyone else; this is basically an admission that we're going to drive around, periodically nip the territorial water boundaries of the various island, and make snarky comments on the radio.

THE END.

China will make lots of loud noises, and their teenagers will insult our teenagers over the radio; but will otherwise ignore that we are there.

[Sixstrings]

Considering that China is more concerned and more interested in freedom of maritime and aviation navigation in the SCS than anyone else; this is basically an admission that we're going to drive around, periodically nip the territorial water boundaries of the various island, and make snarky comments on the radio.

THE END.

China will make lots of loud noises, and their teenagers will insult our teenagers over the radio; but will otherwise ignore that we are there.

The overall situation is a lot like east europe, seems to me. There's lots of EMOTION (between Poles, baltics, Russia). People talking about ancient history, etc., and generations long grievances.

In my opinion, it's NATO, and then most of all the US, that's a stabilizing presence in east europe. The reality is that the US government is not driven by emotion -- there really is no passionate emotional grievance against Russia.. an American soldier likes everybody. Maybe a Polish or Estonian soldier has a long list of grievances about Russia that go back to their great grandmother or something, but a GI from Kansas City just doesn't.

Ironically, the USA and the fact the US leads NATO, is *so good for Russian security*.

If not for calm west europe, and the US, then things like what happened with Turkey could get out of hand with Russia.

And it's the same in the Pacific -- Japan and SK are core allies to us, Japan in particular is a close relationship / alliance going back 71 years now (a very long time). But otherwise, we really are not a party to *emotional* grievances with China. Or North Korea.

But we do defend these places, and will. And the US plays neutral cop on the beat between these parties, checking our own team too when they are maybe getting a little loose cannon. Because the US interest is stability and peace and business.

Russia, China -- they want to rise up in the world and shake it up, and go grab some stuff. That's a rising power's interest, different from ours.

It's rising powers that want to shake things up and jostle their way -- sometimes by force -- up the food chain.

Our country is already at the top of the food chain. All our interest is, is staying there.. and keeping all the kids at the table from going bananas and fighting too much and wrecking the whole kitchen, ruining everything for everybody.

And in between all that, yeah, the US sells arms to certain rising powers and certain sides.. and yeah, it's business.. but it's also strategy and counter-balancing what's going on in these regions. If one side is getting too strong, then you arm the weaker side. And keep the situation balanced, that's the idea.

One thing about China though -- they do hack us, a lot. They most recently hacked the FDIC. Certainly at some point, if China isn't careful, they may start emotionally pissing off Americans. (it's like.. the kids can fight with each other to an extent and that's tolerated, but don't start treating DAD that way.. )

[Sixstrings]

Op-Ed Why Americans should care about the South China Sea

China’s government argues the U.S. is using the treaty as a pretext for isolating China. In reality, China is isolating itself: The country’s aggressiveness has strengthened America’s alliance relationships across Asia, as countries seek a strong partner to balance against it. ...

What makes China’s policy in the South and East China seas so curious is that it is so contrary to the government’s description of its “peaceful rise.” At the most recent meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — a regional organization not notable for taking tough, principled stands on security issues — the group issued a unanimous condemnation of China before governments got cold feet and retracted it. China’s behavior is so egregious that other countries now blow up the country’s vessels captured in their waters. It should worry China that so many nations overpowered by it militarily and linked to it economically are willing to challenge it.

In the aftermath of the court decision, China likely will test the U.S.’ readiness to uphold the rules, creating military provocations that could escalate into war.

It is reasonable to ask why Americans should care about uninhabited rocks in the South China Sea. Would we really risk war over that? The answer is that war will become more likely if we do not run the risks of enforcing the rules that every country in Asia except China accepts.

If we allow China to strong-arm weaker states, an international order that has benefited us all will erode: Military conflict will become more likely as countries try to protect their waters from Chinese incursion, and trade will be pinched. (More than $5 trillion in trade is carried on ships through these waters annually). Countries such as Australia and Japan, on which the U.S. relies as partners in military operations around the world, will narrow their focus to more immediate regional concerns.

Only by keeping the steady course of enforcing the rules and supporting our allies can the U.S. forestall bad outcomes in Asia.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-schake-south-china-sea-ruling-20160714-snap-story.html

And I would just add to the above, that the Philippines was the western line of US defense going all the way back to Teddy Roosevelt times. US is allied to the Philippines.. it's a US outpost for a reason.. Scarborough Shoal is so close to the Philippines, that it makes sense Obama has said that's a red line, that China can't build there.

So it's just as simple as that, the Philippines is our picket line out west. So yeah, we gotta be involved a bit. Reasonably.

I think probably Scarborough Shoal should be secured, as a consequence *IF* China does some escalation things.

I know everyone is scared about nuclear weapons and conflict, but neither can we ever just keep the navy in drydock and close up shop either. (and in fairness, China DOES NOT ever nuclear saber rattle.. whereas Russia has flirted with that a tad, but China has not)

The Philippines is a US ally, it's the western outpost of defense.. smack dab in the middle between all these other allies we're treaty bound to defend. And in the middle of crucial shipping lanes.

Objective, non-emotional US strategic interest is reasonably defending the Philippines, within a reasonable distance from its shores.. and then also, freedom of navigation and peacefully sailing / flying in the south china sea.

And the overall goal is what the US policy actually is, which is that China WORKS THINGS OUT with their neighbors, in a "rules based international law" world.

Hillary Clinton will need to clean up Obama’s Iran and China messes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/07/12/hillary-clinton-will-need-to-clean-up-obamas-iran-and-china-messes/

The Obama administration is failing to stop China’s Pacific aggression
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-obama-administration-is-failing-to-stop-chinas-pacific-aggression/2016/06/23/fce65f98-396c-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html

Europeans are divided, as usual :

EU Response to South China Sea Ruling Blocked by Rift
http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2016/07/14/eu-response-to-south-china-sea-ruling-blocked-by-rift/

Xi’s ‘Neighborhood Diplomacy’ Runs Aground in South China Sea

An international tribunal’s rejection of China’s claim to most of the South China Sea has exposed a problem with President Xi Jinping’s "neighborhood diplomacy." It hasn’t been very neighborly.

“The Chinese government is quite happy to basically walk right up the line where people have to punch them to get them to stop,” said Nick Bisley, a professor of international relations at La Trobe University in Melbourne. “They will continue to behave in this way and in some respects the fact that the rest of the world says things like, ‘China is misbehaving,’ well, that is grist for the mill.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-14/xi-s-neighborhood-diplomacy-runs-aground-in-south-china-sea

South China Sea ruling won't stop plundering of ecosystem, experts say

"China will take no notice of the Hague ruling," Brian Morton, Emeritus Professor of Marine Ecology at Hong Kong University, told Reuters. "And it will be virtually impossible to restore the reefs given global warming and destructive fishing techniques continuing."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-china-sea-ruling-wont-stop-plundering-ecosystem-100158145--business.html

[Sixstrings]

I think the below image is Chinese plans for a base / development on Scarborough Shoal, RIGHT OFF the coast of Philippines. Obama and the Pentagon are concerned that would give the Chinese a radar / control triangle in the south china sea. So Obama doesn't want China to complete that triangle, right off the Philippines.

The shoal is currently empty and not built up.. the court has ruled China has no right to be building any of these in the first place.. Obama told Xi back in March, that this shoal is a red line. From the reporting, apparently China hasn't made any moves to build on this shoal, since Obama told Xi Jinping it's a red line.

So far, all they do is have Chinese coast guard there, and they chase off Filipino fishermen.

Scarborough Shoal could become a flashpoint for a South China Sea Military Conflict

China has plans for the military buildup of Scarborough Shoal and it would put Chinese and US Naval Forces (stationed in the Philippines) within short range missile of each other.

Vice Adm. Yoji Koda, a retired commander-in-chief of Japan’s Self-Defense Fleet, said in answer to a question that Tuesday’s decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the U.N. Convention of the Law of the Sea, presents Washington and Tokyo with a “fait accompli.”

Militarily, he told an audience at the Center for the Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think-tank, if Beijing goes ahead with building up Scarborough Shoal, it “could be a game changer.”

What he was referring to at the Wednesday event was the creation of a triangle of military facilities on artificial islands allowing China to project power to its claimed “nine-dash line,” from its coastal mainland.

“I’m not saying go to war today,” but “you have to be prepared.”

The plan to develop and militarize Scarborough Shoal, however, has set off alarm bells in both the Pentagon and State Department because of the area’s proximity to the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally that recently agreed to enhance defense cooperation in the face of Chinese aggression.

Contrary to China’s claim, the primary purpose of the reclaimed atolls is strategic.

The harbors on the manmade islands will enable PLA-Navy and Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels to conduct round-the-clock presence missions in the South China Sea without the need to return to ports in mainland China. Radar and satellite communications systems will significantly enhance China’s maritime domain awareness in the South China Sea. The airfield on Fiery Cross Reef is able to accommodate almost every aircraft in the PLA’s inventory, including heavy transport and combat aircraft.10

As the PLA currently lacks a fully operational aircraft carrier, and has limited in-flight refuelling capabilities, the atolls should enable China’s military to base fighter aircraft in the Spratlys on a permanent basis.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/07/scarborough-shoal-could-become.html

Incidentally: ever since about 1940, the Communist Party has been teaching Chinese schoolchidlren that Chinese territory extends from that point in the far north of mainland China all the way down to the southern end of that dashed line ("the nine dash line").

So the situation is that there's a billion Chinese people that are utterly mystified that the court ruled against them.

But the problem here is that Chinese are not the only people in this world -- Vietnamese are people too, as are Filipinos and Japanese (Chinese feel similarly about the east china sea, near Japan.) The UN maritime tribunal exists, to peacefully resolve these disputes through arbitration and international law. Because otherwise, Vietnamese and Filipinos think they TOO have a right to these areas that are really right off their coast, and really there should be something fair worked out in these situations.

If one were just FAIR and objective about it, then obviously there's no reason why China should just own all that vast ocean next to all those other countries.

Chinese people are having a problem understanding all this, because the Communist Party had them repeating over and over in geography class that this sea belongs to them.

China’s citizens are livid at the South China Sea ruling because they’ve always been taught it is theirs
http://qz.com/730669/chinas-citizens-are-livid-at-the-south-china-sea-ruling-because-theyve-always-been-taught-it-is-theirs/

NINE-DASH WHAT?

China has no respect for international law, its neighbors, or marine life, a tribunal rules

Indeed the tribunal ruled that China’s nine-dash line is essentially illegal and without basis under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which is at the core of modern maritime law and has been signed by over 160 nations (including China). The treaty for instance grants exclusive economic zones (EEZs) to coastal nations extending 200 nautical miles from the shore baseline, giving them sole exploitation rights over all natural resources in that zone.
http://qz.com/729524/chinas-activities-in-the-south-china-sea-are-illegal-and-destroying-the-environment-an-international-court-finds/

[SeaGypsy]

Funny, Taiwan is getting Pissed now, angry that they got nothing.

The dominant tribe in the Northern Philippines is the Tagalog, which is descended from the Ilocano, who were pushed out of Taiwan by genocidal Han Chinese 800+ years ago. So sure, there were Chinese tribes in these islands at least that long ago, they just happened to have run there to escape mainland Chinese, which they did for over 800 years. Most Filipinos don't know that about their own history.

Panatang is 2 hours by small fishing boat from my wife's village.

[Sixstrings]

Funny, Taiwan is getting Pissed now, angry that they got nothing.

Interestingly, Taiwan are like the mainland Chinese, in that Taiwanese claim this entire south china sea too ( ). Taiwan recently sent a warship down there.

Taiwan obviously isn't causing the problem that China is though; PRC is the one building all these island bases on top of coral reefs. With plans for hotels and casinos, too.

Is THAT the fate we want, for the world's coral reefs? Today it's Scarborough Shoal, tomorrow it would be the Great Barrier reef, and maybe Chinese hotel-casino-army bases in the Caribbean Sea.

It's a total breakdown of international law, and no cop on the beat anymore, and gangs just grabbing things, from chewing up Ukraine, to maybe the Baltics next, to a free-for-all grab what you want in the Pacific.

All I'm saying here is -- maybe China should be stood up to a LITTLE bit, while it's still possible to do so.

Oh by the way SG, China's reprimanding your country's foreign minister:

China ‘bit shocked’ at Julie Bishop’s comments on the South China Sea ruling

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said China had formally protested against Australia’s “wrong remarks”, and that China hopes Australia does nothing to harm regional peace and stability.

“Honestly speaking, I’m a bit shocked at Bishop’s comments,” Mr Lu said.
http://www.news.com.au/national/china-bit-shocked-at-julie-bishops-comments-on-the-south-china-sea-ruling/news-story/05c8a0d11dd42ff86979ddda42c8eb6c

Yeah you bet they're shocked, they thought Australia was were their bitch.

Aren't we all getting a bit tired of being bossed around, and told what we can and can't say, by the Communist Party in China?

Haven't we been bossed around about the Dalai Lama, *our entire lifetimes*?

China is just TOO BOSSY. Bossy, bossy, bossy.

It's ridiculous.

The dominant tribe in the Northern Philippines is the Tagalog, which is descended from the Ilocano, who were pushed out of Taiwan by genocidal Han Chinese 800+ years ago. So sure, there were Chinese tribes in these islands at least that long ago, they just happened to have run there to escape mainland Chinese, which they did for over 800 years. Most Filipinos don't know that about their own history.

The court ruled against China's "ancient history" claims.

The bottom line about it is just that small, weak countries.. and POOR countries.. ought to have equal and fair rights to rich resources around their coasts. No large power ought to be able to just come in and TAKE it.

What China should have done, from the very start, is just make development deals -- with the AGREEMENT of Philippines, and Vietnam. PARTNERING for development, and SHARING the profits. That's how things are supposed to be done, not just TAKE things and tell these little countries that their people don't matter and they don't deserve anything that's right off their coast.

China COULD HAVE (and still can) done the development and business they want to do, the RIGHT way.

[Sixstrings]

US ambassador Max Baucus: ‘We can’t let the Chinese bully us’

After a 40-year career in electoral politics, representing Montana first in the House of Representatives and later in the Senate, Baucus doesn’t have much time for diplomatic niceties and says he regularly interrupts exchanges of official “talking points” in an attempt to cut to the chase.

“I speak to [Chinese government officials] very candidly. Maybe it’s because I’m a westerner,” he says. “We have to exercise self-respect. We can’t let them bully us.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3c020d0a-451e-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1.html

That's his general philosophy dealing with the Beijing government, not south china sea in particular.

US quite fair to China in maritime dispute

The bottom line is law and order - and respect. Contrary to the apprehensions and allegations of Chinese officials, no country is taking sides in the Scarborough Shoal fracas, not even the United States. ...

We all want to make peace with China, not war. It is China that is making war, with itself and the world.

Regardless, the US and the international community will not be cowed by China, much less cower. They are aware it is incumbent upon them to back up the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, and assure its enforcement as a universal, obligatory act for the sake of genuine peace, security, equity, justice and truth on this planet.

(From the Philippine Daily Inquirer/ANN)
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/US-quite-fair-to-China-in-maritime-dispute-30290616.html

[SeaGypsy]

The Pinoy are great coastal fishermen & intellectual midgits. The Han Chinese see them as vastly inferior in every way, the government must bluster along as if this decision is utterly against natural law, pretend there is no superior race business going on within China & never was, whilst it is advantageous to claim unity over areas the Han long ago subjugated native others across.

So far Dutertes office is very subdued, everybody knows he wants to do a deal with China in terms China designs no doubt, in the other hand almost nobody in the Philippines wants a soft hand offered to China & he risks impeachment to do so. Interesting times.

[Sixstrings]

So far Dutertes office is very subdued, everybody knows he wants to do a deal with China in terms China designs no doubt, in the other hand almost nobody in the Philippines wants a soft hand offered to China & he risks impeachment to do so. Interesting times.

What's unclear, is what the US state department is advising his administration to do / which way Washington is leaning. (my hunch is that's why Duterte is being quiet lately)

From the best I can tell, washington would just like China and Philippines to work a deal out. But likely, that doesn't include the US leaving Philippines, nor a Chinese base on Scarborough.

So, what's China trying to do, really?

Do they want to do business or do they insist on being the unipolar power in charge, too?

If they just want to do business, then they ought to stop the drama and offer the Philippines and Vietnam a genuine partnership, with profit and resource sharing in the south china sea.

China should treat Vietnam and Philippines as what they are -- sovereign nations, with rights, and due respect.

These countries actually need Chinese money and development, but it's just that China has to treat them right. China can't just roll over the ocean outside their doorstep saying CHINA owns it all, chasing and harassing their fishermen. That's no way to make friends.