Revi wrote:Kevin Anderson says that anything less than an 80% cut in the amount of fossil fuel we consume by the year 2020 would cause us to go over the 2 degree C threshold for catastrophic climate change.
Us humans don't seem to be able to limit ourselves, so we are going to go right over the tipping point if left to our own devices.
Along comes Peak Oil to the rescue.
Assuming that we are at the peak, and we drop 15% per year from here on, we'll be at 15% in 2016, 30% by 2017, 45% in 2018, 60% in 2019 and 75% reduction by 2020, which is close to where we need to be.
Gaia has a way of sorting things out.
Of course this doesn't say anything about the amazing amount of suffering that will transpire, but maybe we'll have a planet that will remain habitable for the survivors.
Please let me know what you think of my idea.
Revi wrote:useful work of oil will decline until our society can't afford it
Revi wrote:Check out what he says here:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_018.htm
Basically the thesis is that it's going to be so expensive to produce oil that the average person won't be able to afford it by 2020.
Revi wrote:We all know that the useful portion of oil is going down. Why wouldn't it go down steeply? Right now we are using borrowed money to hold up most of the governments of the world. How's it going to go work out? There might be some oil around, but most of us will be too broke to buy it pretty soon. A lot of people already are.
I just finished the book, and I would say the most useful fact was that according to Deffeyes the peak is on Thanksgiving of this year. He even says he may be a month or so off, but Hubbert's technique points to this year. It's pretty convincing. It seems like recent events are telling as well. The Saudis just said they can't increase production anytime soon, so maybe this is it!
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