[shortonsense]

back in the 80’s while the rest of the country was awash in $10 oil we were crippled to near extinction. With 10 years of experience and a master’s in geology I was delivering produce to restaurants.

Keep an eye out for Dominion Field Services and Ergon....there are rumblings that not all is well in the oilpatch. Again. And maybe brush up on your vegetable recognition skills.

[ROCKMAN]

I know what you mean short. Even though my current position seems solid you never forget those lean days. Updated my resume and put out a couple of feelers. We cut the 2009 budget from $1.2 billion to less than $700 million in my division. I'm use to the cycle in the oil patch. But it our economic meltdown that troubles me more. Having an idea about what the future was likely bringing I've been minimizing my liabilities for a few years: no credit cards, bought a small house, no money in the stock market, found a girl friend with simple tastes like mine, got a small dog that doesn't eat much, etc. My biggest financial liability right now is an 8 you daughter who wants to be a veterinarian. If it weren’t for that I might retire early. But if I did that I probably wouldn’t be hanging around PO or TOD and chatting with all those interesting folks.

[Pops]

having no job to pay for $1.50 gas in the next year or two.

There ya go, none of these things happen in isolation.

The '90s boom was fueled by cheap oil and the '00 boom by drive to qualify commutes and a frenzy at the cheap interest money trough.

The current situation is about the best a Peak Oiler could hope for: an energy shock followed by a recession and job losses but lower energy prices:

Sort of like how a kick in the head by momma cow brings the realization the teat ain't always going to be there.

[ROCKMAN]

Great analogy pops. Getting weened of the oil teat would have been tough enough by itself. But, to carry on the analogy, instead of just being hungry our calf is now being surrounded by the economy in wolf's clothing.

[Pops]

Great analogy pops. Getting weened of the oil teat would have been tough enough by itself. But, to carry on the analogy, instead of just being hungry our calf is now being surrounded by the economy in wolf's clothing.

Those little buggers can run and kick though; no doubt some will be brought down and in fact I think I know a few, but some will get away.

Get along little doggies...

[ROCKMAN]

I know what you mean pops. I don't mess with such critters often but a couple of years ago I had one kick me into next week. But I'm sure you seen calves and other critters so panicked they stand frozen for just a few seconds too long and pay the ultimate price. It's easy to imagine a lot of 2 legged types standing frozen when facing the danger head on. Like the say...denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

[JustaGirl]

So I understand you JD, oil, once consumed or burned is not replaced by more oil, and unless we wait for the last 2 billion years to repeat itself and replace the oil in the ground that we're extracting, suddenly are no longer "real" factors in the reailty that oil is not renewable and we'll never see it replaced in our earth's crust ever again simply because "the price has tanked."

Not sure where you got those ideas from, but JD does in fact believe oil is finite & will peak. He just offers another view that peak oil doesn't equal mad max. Is he right? I don't know. Time will tell. I for one am glad he posts here. This site would get pretty boring pretty fast if everyone had the same opinions.

[Pops]

...critters so panicked they stand frozen for just a few seconds too long and pay the ultimate price.

I know some back in CA who are doing some kicking now - and it is themselves who are the target.

It is tough to say "I told you" to your friends and family so I don't.

They do have a respite if they will take the opportunity to make a move but I think they are even more afraid to jump the fence now than a few years ago, just milling around now.

So, I've gone from hopeful to gloomy in just a couple posts.

[JoeW]

("I told you so" rant deleted)

JD--

The peak oil forecast was for volatile prices with an overall trend of up. It is sad that most people don't understand what "volatile" means.

That stated, I, like many others, was unable to foresee the magnitude of this economic depression in my crystal ball. Wait a minute, I don't have a crystal ball! No wonder I didn't see it coming.

Seriously, the whole economy is going to $hit, which has been more or less predicted by all the gloom and doomers here.
So, yes. You told them all when it came to the oil price. You told them all. And thanks to the enormous global economic meltdown timed just as you had foreseen it in your nightly clairvoyant dreams, you were right!

The price came down, but look at what it took to make it happen. Some might say the sky is falling. I wouldn't go that far yet. But the situation looks pretty bleak right now. I think I'd rather go back to the high priced oil and ignorant bliss of the masses we had a couple of months ago.

[kublikhan]

In my opinion, this recession would have happened if we found another 10 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. We were living on borrowing ever larger amounts of credit, and this trend was doomed to reverse with or without high oil prices. I believe the origins of this economic funk we are in were in the financial sector, not the oil sector.

[mos6507]

JD does in fact believe oil is finite & will peak. He just offers another view that peak oil doesn't equal mad max.

Yet he calls his blog 'Peak Oil Debunked'. False advertizing.

[mos6507]

If my opinion, this recession would have happened if we found another 10 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. We were living on borrowing ever larger amounts of credit, and this trend was doomed to reverse with or without high oil prices. I believe the origins of this economic funk we are in were in the financial sector, not the oil sector.

Glad to know I'm not the only one. Just saw Bolt over the weekend and there is this scene (spoiler ahead) where the hamster unlocks him from the back of the dog catcher's truck at the exact same time that he's trying to bust it open with his head. So he feels like he actually did it himself. That's the delusion that peak oilers are having right now. It's a case of coincidental timing.

[shortonsense]

JD does in fact believe oil is finite & will peak. He just offers another view that peak oil doesn't equal mad max.

Yet he calls his blog 'Peak Oil Debunked'. False advertizing.

It strikes me that peak oil adherents imply much, much more than the concept of an important natural resource reaching a maximum global production rate.

There is an interesting disjunct between "peak oil" in the strictly technical sense, and much of the hysterical consequences assigned to it by its most zealot supporters.

I think JD recognizes this basic discontinuity within the PO community.

[Revi]

Peak oil is a background thing, like the environment. Cultures rise and fall on things like peak oil and climate changes. They don't realize that these things are in the background. The US congress didn't do anything aobut the dust bowl until the dust cloud hit the capitol building. They filibustered until the dust hit, and then they voted to do something about it.

Peak oil is like that cloud. It is hard to see, but when it hits you can feel the grit between your teeth. I'll bet the folks down in Atlanta have a new attitude towards gasoline since September when they couldn't get any for a couple of weeks.

We may not see peak oil as shortages, but it's effects will start to become evident.

There is a reason why the big three are going bankrupt. Their products are from a byegone era. An era of cheap and available gasoline. Even if gas is $2 a gallon, it's time is almost over.

I see peak oil as the driver behind a lot of events. It holds the key to understanding what's really going on. There are a lot of other factors as well, but peak oil is the best way of untangling the mess nowadays.

[mos6507]

It strikes me that peak oil adherents imply much, much more than the concept of an important natural resource reaching a maximum global production rate.

Here is JD's manifesto, from his first post at peakoil debunked:

Mankind did not come all this way, just to crawl back into a hole and retreat. Screw the earth. It's like the egg we hatched out of. We suck its resources dry, and then we step out of the nest and fly into the wild black yonder. As my hero, William S. Burroughs, said: man is an artifact designed for space travel. Can you imagine anything stupider than a being, hatched into an infinite universe, wringing its hands about the finiteness and limits of its environment?
I trust that our upcoming look at Titan, the hydrocarbon moon, will have a salutory effect on the imagination of the common man. With any luck, it'll be a PR disaster for the peak oil central committee, you know: "sending the people the 'wrong message' at this critical time" etc. etc.
We will never run out of hydrocarbons or energy, because they are the basic building blocks of the universe, and the universe is infinite. Yes, folks, contrary to the solemn word of ALPO, there is an infinite supply of energy. and all we have to do to tap it is stop listening to those cowards, and get focused.

Now there is an ideology to get behind, isn't it? Even Dick Cheney wouldn't be so blunt.

[Kristen]

the whole point of peak oil us that we have peaked on light crude, so the froth is gone.

Well thats about as scientific and straight forward a concept as anything else around here I suppose. The froth is gone! The froth is gone!

Well thanks, I try to throw my two cents there in every once an a while

[Plantagenet]

Just saw Bolt over the weekend and there is this scene (spoiler ahead) where the hamster unlocks him from the back of the dog catcher's truck at the exact same time that he's trying to bust it open with his head. So he feels like he actually did it himself. That's the delusion that peak oilers are having right now. It's a case of coincidental timing.

Disney films like "Bolt" really aren't a very good guide to the economic effects of oil supply shortfalls caused by peak oil.

It was not a coincidence when Arab oil embargoes in the late 20th century produced oil supply shortfalls that caused oil prices to skyrocket which in turn caused the global economy to go into recession, followed by a drop in oil demand and oil prices plummeting to $10/barrel.

Its not a coincidence now that oil supply shortfalls caused by peaking of sweet crude production in 2005 caused oil prices to rise to ca. $148 barrel by early 2008, which in turn caused the global economy to go into recession, which was followed by a drop in oil demand and oil prices plummeting to $50/barrel.


Just plunk another yellow bar for the current recession beginning in 2008, right after the highest peak in aggregate cost of oil to the US economy.

[shortonsense]

Just plunk another yellow bar for the current recession beginning in 2008, right after the highest peak in aggregate cost of oil to the US economy.

Thats a great graph. All those previous peak oils, causing those previous recessions, causing demand destruction.

Whoever claimed that economics can't trump geology should have that thing tattooed in their forehead.

[kublikhan]

Of course high commodity prices(including high oil prices) played a part in this economic crisis. But many other factors played a part as well. US subprime crisis, general housing correction, declining dollar, credit crisis, excessive speculation in commodities, etc. Financials are continuing to get worse, as does the economy in general.
Economic Crisis of 2008

[MD]

Peak Oil just took it's first bite is all. Give it time to chew and swallow and it will be right back for an even bigger gnash. Then another...and another.