[C8]

we need a film on the effects of a massive oil glut- that can cause as many problems as a shortage can. Its too bad film makers are so stuck on only a few select viewpoints on most issues.

[AdamB]

we need a film on the effects of a massive oil glut- that can cause as many problems as a shortage can. Its too bad film makers are so stuck on only a few select viewpoints on most issues.

On the contrary, the glut meme is held world wide by nearly everyone. Revi's film is one of a very few that doesn't promote abiotic oil and a unicorn view of the world.

And it had better not mention folks still claiming that we are already past peak oil, and the result are the huge drop in prices you see at the corner gas station. Could cause some folks to hhmmph right there and walk away to take a road trip, or buy some gasoline just to douse their garbage with to burn in the back yard, or convince them to convert their old home back to the heating oil instead of clean burning natural gas, we might reverse the entire CO2 emissions profile of the US with this peak oil consequence of low prices for the foreseeable future!

[Revi]

This film is not going to be about predictions. It's about a guy who is obsessed with the idea of Peak Oil and how he relates to it. Here's another short promo. I think the music and approach is fun. It's a way to talk about a very difficult subject in a humorous way:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcYWLk9 ... e=youtu.be

I think this film will appeal to a much wider audience than the usual dark prognostication type. Here's the Kickstarter:

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/14 ... love-story

[Revi]

I think we are a little past peak oil, but it's hard to tell. People are acting like the happy days are here again now. I just read about a guy who saved so much on heating oil, he took his family to Disneyland. Why not? We are all pretty much living in Disneyland now anyway. Why spoil the illusion? I have a feeling that it will be very short lived...

And it had better not mention folks still claiming that we are already past peak oil, and the result are the huge drop in prices you see at the corner gas station. Could cause some folks to hhmmph right there and walk away to take a road trip, or buy some gasoline just to douse their garbage with to burn in the back yard, or convince them to convert their old home back to the heating oil instead of clean burning natural gas, we might reverse the entire CO2 emissions profile of the US with this peak oil consequence of low prices for the foreseeable future![/quote]

[ennui2]

we need a film on the effects of a massive oil glut- that can cause as many problems as a shortage can. Its too bad film makers are so stuck on only a few select viewpoints on most issues.

On the contrary, the glut meme is held world wide by nearly everyone. Revi's film is one of a very few that doesn't promote abiotic oil and a unicorn view of the world.

The glut doesn't by itself disprove peak oil, or even peak oil doom. It merely invalidates the constant churn of short-term doomsday predictions of peakers who have been "calling" doom for the last 10 years or so.

[Revi]

We didn't fix the financial problem in 2008, which was caused by peak oil, and it won't be fixed this next time. We are like a patient who is very sick. You can bring the patient back, but will he be able to live without all the things they do in the hospital? Who knows? What they did with the mortgage backed securities in the last debacle was to simply buy them at whatever price the banks wanted, then put them all into a vault. That's why there are hundreds of thousands of abandoned houses all over the place. Nobody can figure out who owns them. Therefore they sit abandoned. Meanwhile there are millions of people who are homeless. Welcome to the new reality.

[C8]

I think folks misunderstood what I wrote, a glut can be very disruptive. it can lead to the fall of oil exporting nations, civil war, the slowing of renewables, massive population spikes, urbanization, CO2 spikes, etc.

A glut can be very disruptive and set us up for a major conflict. We need films on this also- not just always the fears of those who worry about too little energy. What is the downside of too much energy?

[Outcast_Searcher]

we need a film on the effects of a massive oil glut- that can cause as many problems as a shortage can. Its too bad film makers are so stuck on only a few select viewpoints on most issues.

On the contrary, the glut meme is held world wide by nearly everyone. Revi's film is one of a very few that doesn't promote abiotic oil and a unicorn view of the world.

The glut doesn't by itself disprove peak oil, or even peak oil doom. It merely invalidates the constant churn of short-term doomsday predictions of peakers who have been "calling" doom for the last 10 years or so.

Right. But because it so clearly does so, it really bothers the short term doomers, so they tend to be in denial about the glut, and the implications for major moderate term relief from chronic shortages via the global promise of using fracking to extract dry gas, wet gas, and oil. (Source: "The Domino Effect" book).

[AdamB]

we need a film on the effects of a massive oil glut- that can cause as many problems as a shortage can. Its too bad film makers are so stuck on only a few select viewpoints on most issues.

I'm not sure there is much of an audience for "woe to Big Oil, so unfairly hurt by low oil prices. How about we all donate an extra $0.50/gal at the pumps to increase their profits, and maybe let them not have to lay as many people off as they might otherwise!".

It is more like, "screw'im, they've been gouging us for years, it's about time they got what's coming to them".

[AdamB]

This film is not going to be about predictions. It's about a guy who is obsessed with the idea of Peak Oil and how he relates to it.

Which part of peak oil? The part about not running out, making due with less, or the part about making do with less, and convincing others to do it as well, even in light of the consequences of peak oil....real gasoline prices like they were back in the late 60's?

[AdamB]

I think we are a little past peak oil, but it's hard to tell.

It is. All we know is that 2014 was the highest production rates of crude oil and lease condensate in the history of our species, so that might be it. Or, 2015 might have been even higher, in which case, 2014 was yet another bad call on peak oil.

Choose world, and crude oil and lease condensate. Doesn't look like they have 2015 numbers up yet, so maybe 2014 was peak. Then again...we've heard THAT one before, haven't we?

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD

People are acting like the happy days are here again now.

thinking about doing a massive road trip this summer, hitting every national park in the L48 just because...well...gasoline is CHEAP. Just imagine, all of us who were affected by Big Oil's price gouging over the past decade, we changed our habits, bought fuel efficient econo-boxs....now with 40+ mpg it costs like $18/tank to fill up the car, and then I can drive 500+ miles on it. So sure, people SHOULD be acting happy, can you even IMAGINE that our current circumstances are the result of peak oil? You should put some of this in your film!

Happy roadtrippping this summer!

[AdamB]

I think folks misunderstood what I wrote, a glut can be very disruptive. it can lead to the fall of oil exporting nations, civil war, the slowing of renewables, massive population spikes, urbanization, CO2 spikes, etc.

Just like the glut in 1986? Well, the good thing about gluts is that all those things you mentioned, didn't bother much of the developed world. Heck, the US stock market had a wonderful time with that glut, which lasted from about 1986 right up to the burst of the dot com bubble.

So we'll take a glut if we can have that market runup all over again.

A glut can be very disruptive and set us up for a major conflict. We need films on this also- not just always the fears of those who worry about too little energy. What is the downside of too much energy?

The conflicts back in 1986 were pretty bad. Took 5 years for that glut to dissolve the USSR, free hundreds of millions of oppressed people under that thumb, stop the Cold War, and created the horrors of "drive till you qualify", low interest rates, the creation of the world's first hyperpower....justs imagine if this glut does more like this...breaks up the EU, releases the US to leap from hyperpower to...what is above hyperpower? GINORMOUS power?

[C8]

I think folks misunderstood what I wrote, a glut can be very disruptive. it can lead to the fall of oil exporting nations, civil war, the slowing of renewables, massive population spikes, urbanization, CO2 spikes, etc.

Just like the glut in 1986? Well, the good thing about gluts is that all those things you mentioned, didn't bother much of the developed world. Heck, the US stock market had a wonderful time with that glut, which lasted from about 1986 right up to the burst of the dot com bubble.

So we'll take a glut if we can have that market runup all over again.

A glut can be very disruptive and set us up for a major conflict. We need films on this also- not just always the fears of those who worry about too little energy. What is the downside of too much energy?

The conflicts back in 1986 were pretty bad. Took 5 years for that glut to dissolve the USSR, free hundreds of millions of oppressed people under that thumb, stop the Cold War, and created the horrors of "drive till you qualify", low interest rates, the creation of the world's first hyperpower....justs imagine if this glut does more like this...breaks up the EU, releases the US to leap from hyperpower to...what is above hyperpower? GINORMOUS power?

No two gluts produce the exact same outcomes- remember- WW1 and 2 were both preceded by vastly expanded amounts of oil. Oil is like food, hungry people sulk, but once people get filled up they want to fight.

How does the collapse of S. Arabia, Iran, Nigeria affect the world? What about a Canadian housing crash? A Russian invasion? Massive migration and border war caused by cheap transport? Gluts can be very turbulent. Too many people are stuck on "give me that old time PO religion". The world is constantly changing- why be stuck in 2005 and Kunstlerville?

[Revi]

We are at $785 of our $2000 goal to make the movie! Thanks to people who chipped in! It seems achievable in the next 11 days now. I think it will be a kinder, gentler way to get the message out about resource limits, and amusing to people who don't believe in them too!

Thanks again! It is possible!

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/14 ... love-story

[Revi]

Now we're at $915, and it seems even more possible in the next 10 days. We are definitely going to talk about the "glut". It is a strange phenomenon, but it's part of the roller coaster ride we're on. Remember that at the top of any resource there are huge swings in price and quantity. We are in one of those swings now. Remember oil at $142 a barrel? It wasn't too long ago. There won't be much produced at $27 a barrel, and that might set us up for another run-up. Or it might not. We'll see... Anyway thanks to all who have helped with our film project!
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/14 ... love-story

[AdamB]

No two gluts produce the exact same outcomes- remember- WW1 and 2 were both preceded by vastly expanded amounts of oil. Oil is like food, hungry people sulk, but once people get filled up they want to fight.

How does the collapse of S. Arabia, Iran, Nigeria affect the world? What about a Canadian housing crash? A Russian invasion? Massive migration and border war caused by cheap transport? Gluts can be very turbulent. Too many people are stuck on "give me that old time PO religion". The world is constantly changing- why be stuck in 2005 and Kunstlerville?

Any one trick pony economy knows what is coming, even if the leaders don't tell the citizens. That includes Canada. People are certainly not falling for anything peak oil right now, it is too easy to the real world contrary evidence on every suburban corner occupied by a gas station.

And 2005 wasn't Jim's shining oopsy moment, he had already done that during his Y2K hysteria. Social commentary? Sure, the guy is quite witty. Anything related to analysis? Forget about it. His entire spiel is basically melancholy, gee why can't the world be small and rural like when I was young. That's about it.

[AdamB]

The glut doesn't by itself disprove peak oil, or even peak oil doom. It merely invalidates the constant churn of short-term doomsday predictions of peakers who have been "calling" doom for the last 10 years or so.

What, you are perhaps being polite? While doomers aren't necessarily peakers, doomers have been proclaiming the end since the beginning. Or almost the beginning. I mean, the Bible is rife with doomer stuff, and while the idea has been secularized into modern, more malthusian based ideas, it all begins back there in the shadows of history, the underlying fear of mortality, and the translation from that fear into the idea that the world must end.

Wiki even keeps a list! Although it appears to be only A.D., but you know there is a PStarr back around Julius Caesar's time, predicting the end of the world because of peak olive oil or something.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_d ... tic_events

[AdamB]

Remember that at the top of any resource there are huge swings in price and quantity. We are in one of those swings now.

Nope. Don't ever remember writing about price much actually. And "huge" swings...in quantity? Well, that is fine I suppose, but doesn't appear to fit in with the "peak plateau" angle, which came about when oil hit a spot around 85 million a day and then didn't go up or down. Peakers then proclaimed "plateau!" as it wasn't becoming a peak, and then later it went up about another 10 million a day, and round and round goes the carousel. Now that we know the energy specialists aren't carving peaks into their projections over the next quarter century, I think it is time to take a deep breath and enjoy the glut just as Americans always have.

The projection from the experts who knew way more than the websites figured, just look at poorly they have underestimated oil production since 2006, they kept dropping their estimates, and it turns out that a decade ago, right when peak oil fears were spreading like wildfire, the EIA had it right. And no peaking either.



No coal peak either:



Or natural gas:

Remember oil at $142 a barrel? It wasn't too long ago. There won't be much produced at $27 a barrel, and that might set us up for another run-up. Or it might not. We'll see... Anyway thanks to all who have helped with our film project!
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/14 ... love-story

It was 8 years ago. And it kickstarted the advent of mass production of non liquid fueled cars, like your's except with A/C and bumpers and air bags and stuff, and the ability to go 70 mph on the interstate.

So those folks, they don't care much at all about how high oil production once was, they just don't use much of it. That is the key, this supply stuff isn't a problem, oil is obsolete.

Here, for those who want an expert on the matter as a source. She appears to have the right idea.

http://eec.ucdavis.edu/highlight/why-th ... peak-soon/