[cube]

We all have our predictions of how the future will unfold. But please limit this topic to government and politics. There's other threads for technology and economics.

How will governments respond to PO?
Will PO lead to the creation of a police state or a more free society?
Will some new political ideology be invented or rejected?
Will PO exacerbate the rift between the haves & have nots?
Will PO lead to perpetual war?

Cube's prediction:

Liberalism as in the concept of government social welfare was a 20th century phenomenon. Liberal ideas may have been around for awhile but the fact is just about every liberal government program (welfare, foodstamps, social security retirement) didn't happen until the 20th century.

The 20th century was also the first time that humans were able to harness the benefits of cheap oil. Is it a coincidence that liberalism and cheap oil took place in the same century? I believe NO. I believe it was cheap oil that made liberalism possible.

Cheap oil made economic surplus possible and that in turn made funding for liberal programs possible. Cheap oil gave rise to the middle class and the only nations on this planet that has liberal welfare programs are nations with a large middle class. Coincidence? I think not. Actually there is an exception to this observation. Can anyone name it?

Liberals quite often like to demonize the oil industry, but where would the money to fund social programs come from if it weren't for the 100's of billions (maybe Trillion?) of tax dollars oil companies generate for governments? Furthermore how willing would the middle class be to pay taxes so someone else can get a welfare check or foodstamps if they themselves fall onto hard times? *exactly* A social welfare program works best when only a small percentage of society recives it and the majority pays for it. Once half the population wants the benefits there's not enough money to go around.

I think PO will lead to the end of social welfare programs.

In America there are 2 main political parties:
1) democrats - who are liberal
2) republicans - who are conservative

Once liberalism dies away I think it will be replaced by neo-conservatism.

[SixMileWalk]

You're currently seeing the end of social welfare programs, and the liberals certainly aren't at the helm of this country.

A lot of people seem to have recently missed the rather large cuts into education, health care, and other "social" programs by the administration's recent budget.

[cubes]

How will governments respond to PO?
Will PO lead to the creation of a police state or a more free society?
Will some new political ideology be invented or rejected?
Will PO exacerbate the rift between the haves & have nots?
Will PO lead to perpetual war?

I find it difficult to believe that governments will respond to PO until it's to late for their response to make a major effect but when they do it will be to move more towards a police state under the guise of 'security' or something like that - can you see many western governments moving towards a more free society under this sort of pressure (even if it may be the right thing to do)?


Perpetual war? Don't think so, maybe at first, but after a while what will there be to fight with or fight over?

[Dreamtwister]

Liberals quite often like to demonize the oil industry, but where would the money to fund social programs come from if it weren't for the 100's of billions (maybe Trillion?) of tax dollars oil companies generate for governments?

There would be ample money to fund "social programs" if the oil companies actually paid any significant taxes. They do not. No corporations do. (Thanks a lot, corporate welfare!)

Furthermore how willing would the middle class be to pay taxes so someone else can get a welfare check or foodstamps if they themselves fall onto hard times?

Again, the "middle class" pays for corporate welfare every day. If regular welfare for individuals is bad, then corporate welfare is as well. If food stamps are bad, then so are massive corporate bailouts.

I think PO will lead to the end of social welfare programs.

You are right. But at least corporate welfare will be alive and well.

In America there are 2 main political parties:
1) democrats - who are liberal
2) republicans - who are conservative

Once liberalism dies away I think it will be replaced by neo-conservatism.

Hate to break it to you, but to the rest of the world, it only looks like 2 right wing extremist parties, one religious, and one secular. And they *both* look like they are run out of the head offices of Lockheed Martin and Halliburton.

[Novus]

I don't think the US government will stand very long after the peak. It's only option is oil wars. Invade such and such to keep the oil flowing. This is what I call phaze I and it is the period we are now in. Eventually the wars will bankupt the US. When the oil wars will end so will the American way life.

By the time phaze II rolls around the very notion of Republicans and Democtrats or Liberals and Conservatives will be meaningless. All the issues that define politics today such as abortion, tax cuts, social secutity, medicare, subsidies of all kinds will be moot. The type of government we will be looking at here is some type of totilitarian dictatorship that can barely keep the country together let alone provide social services. The big political issue of this time period will be over forced labor camps.

Phaze III will involve civil war and the break up of the central government. After a period of anarchy smaller governments will arise. If we are real lucky we might end up with something akin to electric Byzantium modeled after small scale American life in 1900.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Liberal ideas may have been around for awhile but the fact is just about every liberal government program (welfare, foodstamps, social security retirement) didn't happen until the 20th century.

The liberal state welfare programs: unemployment benefits, retirement programs and state pensions for workers, disability, etc was well established in 19th century Germany. In the early 20th century, England was playing catch up to emulate German social welfare policies.

[cube]

...
Hate to break it to you, but to the rest of the world, it only looks like 2 right wing extremist parties, one religious, and one secular. And they *both* look like they are run out of the head offices of Lockheed Martin and Halliburton.

So BOTH liberalism and conservatism is dead for all practical purposes and the only thing left is neo-conservatism? There is much truth to that theory. Contrary to popular belief, Democrats have never really been anti-war. US 20th century history shows very clearly that the Democrats are equally capable of declaring war much like their Republican counterparts. Today, some of the most pro-war rhetoric is coming from the Democrats, in particular "Hillary Clinton the War Goddess".

However I don't think we've degenerated into a 1 party system yet...as of this writing. I think there's A LOT of people and politicians who have a nostalgia for conservatism...not what we have today. I mean old school conservatism kinda like what we had when Ronald Reagan was around.

When PO hits and everything makes a turn for the worse. I think having nostalgia for the past will become a popular pastime.

[Dreamtwister]

So BOTH liberalism and conservatism is dead for all practical purposes and the only thing left is neo-conservatism? There is much truth to that theory. Contrary to popular belief, Democrats have never really been anti-war. US 20th century history shows very clearly that the Democrats are equally capable of declaring war much like their Republican counterparts. Today, some of the most pro-war rhetoric is coming from the Democrats, in particular "Hillary Clinton the War Goddess".

Finally, someone "gets it". I've had this debate on other forums, but this is the first place anyone has actually understood my point.

However I don't think we've degenerated into a 1 party system yet...as of this writing.

On that point, I'll agree to disagree.

[Davage]

I'd imagine Libritarianism is a possibility. If people get sick of social programs not paying out, throwing out red-tape and hurdles to get negligable amounts of money, etc. etc., they might get sick of them and shut them down. The US has pretty much always been a two party system, but those two parties have not always remained the same.

But I'm not ready to predict it, history shows us the future is rarely the way we predict it will be. I'm just offering up an alternative to show that.

On the other hand, if everyone is so sure what we'll do is regress, then I ask you, who have been the "haves" of the past?

Landowners. Keep that in mind as you plan for the future.

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On a related note, I'd like to highlight a post by an alarmist above all but yelling "YOU WILL DIE!" (because the federal government is one big good 'ole boys club). While I do not share his pessimistic views on so many areas, I'd like to point out a frequently forgotten alternative.

Local government.

The US (even other nations) isn't just one big government, it is also comprised of states (and territories), counties, and cities/townships. In these smaller arenas, your voice may be heard...or you may even be able to become a voice. I offer these examples.

1: How do State's federal representatives (Congressmen) spend most of their time? Something called "case work." That is, reading letters, taking phone calls, and meeting with their constituancy...the people who are elegable to vote for them. They help these people, greese the bureaucracy, knock heads that need to be knocked. As long as you approach them right (ie. ask for help and make a good case rather then threaten, pester, or aggrivate them), they can help you along at the federal level.

2: State representatives (including govenors in all their varieties and state congressmen) can do the same at the state/local level. Further, state constitutions are much easier to ammend then the federal constitution, so if you are active and can get a group together, you can make a difference (and sometimes, that difference can be felt nationwide).

3: City governments, being smaller and governing fewer people are even easier to influence. In this, we even have a great example of a city government made PO aware and doing something about it, Willitz California.

4: And of course, there is still one level higher then yourself/family. Join or make an organization, a local network of people willing to form a sub-community to support each other.

So you can either complain of how the sky is falling and there is nothing you can do about it, or you can put your insecurities aside and use your energy for something better. You decide.