Pops wrote:I'm not convinced we've reached peak. What with the various political and market manipulations afoot, a pandemic, possible resultant recession, ongoing shale troubles, etc, etc, the fog is deep.
Pops wrote:
Having said that, for the purposes of discussion, let's stipulate that peak is past. Seems reasonable since outside KSA, RU, USA everyone else seems to have peaked and since 2017 have declined about 6%, Ron says C+C is past, EIA and IEA projecting it not recovering next year at least.
Pops wrote:Let's further stipulate that this from EIA (h/t globalpeak.info) indicates the nature, if not the reality of the future, namely demand exceeding supply—notice the red bars indicating continous stock draw all next year.
Pops wrote:And finally, lets just say that supply never catches up to demand. In the real world, that's all that matters. When the market wants just one more barrel than can be supplied, the bidding war starts and doesn't stop until enough buyers are eliminated to balance the market. The "want" is still there, it's the ability to pay that is the limit. Of course with high price comes increased capital for drillers to drill and frackers to frack but let's just imagine the point of diminishing returns.
No other stipulations, just high price on limited supply.
What happens?
What do "people" do?
What do you do?
Pops wrote:I the period from 2017-2025 could have seen at least 25% of production continuing to decline a couple percent per year, and of course the world will be continuing to deplete at 80-100 MB per day. So it wouldn't be surprising to see prices climbing above $120 to...whatever the limit is at the time.
Pops wrote:Personally we're getting a little long in the tooth, not over the hill yet but the horizon is shortening. We'll sell this place probably spring of '23 if the tax situation is the same.
Pops wrote: Depending on oil production we'll likely either buy another fixer or if the above PO situation seems to be unfolding, build a little tight cabin-ish (ish because I'm still married, LOL) somewhere cheap. By 2026-27 I'll be approaching 70 so will need to be in place.
.
Pops wrote:Demand has been climbing an average of 1%/yr since forever, so just average growth expects 5% more supply by 2025.
Ibon wrote:You guys remember the End oF Suburbia documentary by Heinberg and how that was such a lightbulb moment for so many of us? Damn, that was 15 years ago.
Ibon wrote:Foolish to make any predictions at this point...... even with all those fancy graphs!
Ibon wrote:I don't have a fucking clue!
Ibon wrote:Foolish to make any predictions at this point...... even with all those fancy graphs!
I don't have a fucking clue!
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. Under existing tax law, if you sell your primary residence, you will not be taxed on the first $250,000 in profit you make from the sale, and if you are married, the exemption is up to $500,000. Biden has not proposed changing that. His proposal would increase taxes on capital gains to 39.6% only for those making an income of over $1 million.
AdamB wrote:Not foolish to make predictions. Foolish to make them without information, experience, or understanding of the science fields and industries involved.
Neither the balloon, nor the aeroplane, nor the gliding machine will be a practical success
mousepad wrote:mousepad wrote:Who said this?Neither the balloon, nor the aeroplane, nor the gliding machine will be a practical success
A man with information, experience and understanding of science. Not everybody who makes a wrong prediction is a fool, because nobody can have ALL information. Do you have ALL information ?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:I don't think we have quite hit peak, but it is a good starting point for discussion.
We used to say frequently "We will only be able to see the peak in the rear view mirror after 3-5 years."
Tanada wrote:But here is the kicker. Even as the economy crashed dropping demand and along with it prices the nifty new Hydraulic Fracturing technology was getting a massive roll out.
Tanada wrote:So that raises the key question, will new environmental policy prevent growth from returning in Fracking and Tar Sands, or will fiscal policy support supply growth?
Tanada wrote:It is not the simple supply-demand=price equation we like to pretend it is because ecological and economic government policies have a huge impact.
Time will tell.
Tanada wrote:...that raises the key question, will new environmental policy prevent growth from returning in Fracking and Tar Sands, or will fiscal policy support supply growth? It is not the simple supply-demand=price equation we like to pretend it is because ecological and economic government policies have a huge impact.
Time will tell.
suxs wrote:Plant, why do you feel compelled ...
suxs wrote: try telling us something we already didn't know.
JuanP wrote:I don't expect Biden to want to do much about fighting Climate Change. He will NOT be up for reelection in 2024, unless a cure is discovered that reverses aging and cognitive decline. The people behind him, like Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party may have more of an interest in this, but I would never underestimate the power of the fossil fuels lobbies in Washington. I expect any decisions or actions taken to be mostly window dressing, like Obama and the Paris accord.
The US economy is fucked if we stop shale oil extraction and have to start importing a significant amount of our oil consumption to replace it. Today's USA is not the USA of 20 or 30 years ago. The US Dollar could not take it, IMO.
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