[FoxV]

I rather suspect that many of you are expressing your frustration about other parts of your life, & not really about peak oil itself.

My frustration these days is with people who dismiss the idea of peak oil while not having a clue about the scope of the issues.

As for the Nonsense that surrounds PO, yes there is certainly a lot of that. To truely appreciate the nonsense we face, I suggest you have a look through this site
Logical Fallacies and the Art of Debate
and then re-read your original post again.

Ultimately the whole premise of your arguement "Can't predict the future" is off the mark ("straw man") as predicting the date of PO is only a small part of what this site is about. Most of this site is about what is going on at this moment, and what we can do about it

but hey, don't let logic stop you from continuing what I'm sure must be a very statisfying Troll (oops, thats an "ad hominem" but hey, if it works for you, then I can do it too.) (oops, thats "Tu quoque". Damn, its hard to make a logical debate isn't it)

[Twilight]

An unknown solution will in future take care of a known problem.

A sound basis for planning right there.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

That Chart does not include reserve growth.

[Ingenuity_Gap]

Don't you guys read.

It's Aaron in disguise.

Ok I was wrong... this is even more fun.

Everybody's pet theories get challenged & wham! Suddenly I'm some unrealistic moron who does not comprehend the basic laws of physics. And now I'm Aaron in disguise.

So be it.

But nobody answered my basic assertion.

This is simply too complex to predict with any more certainty than any random event.

Which makes it most lame.

Aaron, you know very well PO ain't no random event. Even if we can't predict it to the second, we know it's coming soon. There are so many "signs" that show something big is cooking:

1. Discoveries are smaller and more infrequent. Peak Discovery was in the 60s. With all our new and shiny mapping technologies oil keeps hiding from us.

2. We started to exploit fields that only 20 years ago were totally uneconomical: ultra deep, arctic, tar sands, now shale oil.

3. The price of crude and refined products increased dramatically in the last 6-7 years (making no. 2 above and alternatives more likely)

4. We have ongoing wars in the ME for no other reason than to control access to 2/3 of the remaining oil reserves.

5. The accounting fraud performed by almost all OPEC countries in the 80s seems to be true: Kuwait acknowledged their reserves are half of the ones reported.

6. Major oil fields like Cantarell, Burgan and now Ghawar seem to have peaked.

I'll stop here and I'll let others add more compelling reasons.

Even if individually most of the above points were true in the past for different regions of the Earth, now we are talking about all of them converging for the entire planet.

This time it's going to be a global peak, one that has no solutions. You can't dig harder or deeper or in other places. It's already been done. When lower US peaked in the early 70s there was an alternative: import more from other places. Now we have no "other places".

Very convincing arguments for an imminent peak, if you ask me.

[SevenTen]

That Chart does not include reserve growth.

Neither did the data for the 50+ countries whose oil production has already peaked.

This is simply too complex to predict with any more certainty than any random event.

I predict, with certainty, within the next 24 hours, you will do at least one of the following:
* eat
* drink
* sleep
* breathe
* pass out
* pass away

If you understand how the system works, predictions about eventual certainties are easy. Preparing for them is the hard part.

And some other points to make are that:
* yes, we can predict the future
* thermodynamic flow is a necessary component of biological activity (life)
* less energy flow means less biological activity
* I'd like to think that this is really Aaron toying with his subjects
* Hawkman does not carry bird flu
* praise Hawkman

[azreal60]

The interesting thing is is that even after "Nonsense" was outed, people continue to be frustrated at his lack of knowledge about peak oil. So either they started their posts long before he was outed, or they wheren't reading carefully enough.

That, or they are so burnt out answering the same questions again and again that they just stopped listening past the point nessesary to decide what the answer was going to be.

If the answer is the latter, then it's of concern. I think sometime people on here might want to ask teachers how they do it. After all, they answer pretty much the same questions ever single day for their entire lives. How does one teach without going crazy?

It's an important question, because if anything will result from peak oil, it's going to be alot of teaching.

[BigTex]

I would love to find a coherent well reasoned argument for PO to be only one possible future scenario. I think part of the intense frustration that a lot of folks here feel is they want to find such an argument as well. Unfortunately, I haven't found one yet. The reality is that PO is an inescapable future event that will arrive whether we are ready or not. Will everything be okay? I don't know (I doubt it), but the things that we would need to do to mitigate PO are not being done (we're still in the blame the oilco and politicians mode)

I hate PO. I wish that it were more theoretical, more given to different interpretations...less compelling. However, the only real interpretation that is involved is the date it will occur and how steep the other side of the production curve will be.

Unfortunately, a lot of the anti-PO arguments take as a given that people who believe in PO are delusional, stupid, paranoid, etc., and thus make weak anti-PO arguments in a sloppy manner (not helpful).

I hate to say it, but the best possible scenario for avoiding PO (or at least delaying) would be to have another disaster that would put some serious breaks on consumption, like a worldwide depression, flu pandemic, or some other awful human adventure.

Are we doomed? I don't know. Maybe it's like Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven:

Kid [talking about man he killed]: "well, he had it coming"
Eastwood: "we all got it coming kid"

[MonteQuest]

I agree with Peak Nonsense that people have to develop a bit more reasoned approach to this subject, otherwise they are red meat for Big Oil, who can take a serious difficulty and ramp it into a major catastrophe to justify wars and windfall profits.

The fish are biting.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Pstar, I was making a joke.

[TheDude]

So Aaron IS Nonsense IS Hawkman? Ingenuity_Gap's quote is the only remaining evidence of Aaron's post.
Didn't Aaron violate his own COC? Should I swallow a blue pill or something?

[Nonsense]

So Aaron IS Nonsense IS Hawkman? Ingenuity_Gap's quote is the only remaining evidence of Aaron's post.
Didn't Aaron violate his own COC? Should I swallow a blue pill or something?

That's right... so play nice or I'll um, I'll complain some more I guess.

[killJOY]

deleted.

[basil_hayden]

Spooky...

The circle is complete!

I'm headed back to the shallow end....

[Albertabound]

This is my first post.

I guess you have to investigate PO alot before you get it. I have been lurking here for a year or so before I signed up.

[threadbear]

Nonsence, this is a chart of world petroleum discoveries with a consumption overlay. Notice that beginning 1984 yearly consumption began exceeding yearly discoveries.

Notice the red area. That is an extrapolation of current trends. Sort of a projection or even a prediction using a model based on good data. That's science

Care to comment? Or will just leave this site with your tail between your legs?

Actually PStarr, I'm not disagreeing with your chart but drawing conclusions based on extrapolation, is actually not scientific.

You can say extrapolating into the future in this way is reasonable, logical and intuitively appealing but you can't claim it's scientific, in the traditional meaning of the word.

[kochevnik]

Hey Aaron - very funny.

NOT.

[NeoPeasant]

I'm sure this post will get deleted or whatever as soon as TPTB around here discover it.

On the contrary, if nobody shows up with a post like this for a while, it would be necessary for TPTB to invent someone so they can repeat the counter arguments. Or maybe they just did.