mkwin wrote:I find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;
1. I understand peak oil occurs when half of the economically extractable resources have been exhausted. However changing economic situations affect what is classified as economical to extract - surely there is now more economically extractable oil when the price of oil is $60+? Hence, more investment and greater expense on older equipment surely would increase the amount of oil economically recoverable in the medium term.
The infrastructure is aging badly; one can't just wave a wand and expect 'investments' will solve everything. Note that the US oil majors have been investing their windfalls in stock buybacks.
2. Another trend seems to be to assume a recession will lead to a failures and eventually permanent failure of the energy grid system. I just can't see this happening as it's too important for any government to let collapse. The government will simply nationalize the energy system.
Are you referring to government leaders who embrace free markets? Even if the energy system is nationalized, declining production won't be reversed, and will likely fall faster due to the disruptions in management.
3. Also, what about the collapse in demand for oil during the recession - surely this would further the plateau to allow time for further substitution to coal to liquids etc. The Hirsch report talks about a minimum lead in period of 10 years to migrate much of the economic difficulties but he also assumes NIMBY attitudes will cause much of the hold up. In an economic crises governments around the world will likely take emergency measures to override local objection and will get support from the majority, who won’t be effected but will enjoy the benefit, to build alternative infrastructure.
A collapsed economy means that money for massive infrastructure restructuring will not be available.
4. If the depression was very severer and tax revenue collapsed surely the government would opt for some kind of rationing system and compulsory nation service of unemployed people put to work maintaining food production, collecting resources and assisting in less technical roles in the investment in alternative and renewable infrastructure.
Still won't provide even a partial infrastructure shift. In the meantime, other critical infrastructure will collapse like a house of cards.
It seems to me there are a huge amount of possible courses of action that could be followed and many ways this can play itself out. In a worst case scenario I can see a neo-communist set-up being adopted in many countries in order to maintain the core activities of the government. Hopefully this big government role will have representation on some areas of life and a strong legislator so power won’t become too centralized. In the more moderate scenario I can see a prolonged period of stagflation, some governmental intervention and a semi-managed economy before some areas of the industrialized world reach a degree of stability.
Your scenarios have little to back them up, so there's little comment that can be made on them.
In both scenarios, I think the developing and third-world will be faring far worse than the developed world as the new urban masses and poor people already dependant on aid starve. In the case of the developed world – in both cases - the quality of living will be reduced, in the UK possibly similar to that of the post-WW2 era when Britain was the poor man of Europe. Given the level of organization, technical ability, education and, generally, good food production capabilities, I think – assuming Olduvai Theory is correct – much of the populations of North America, Europe and Russia will survive making up a significant portion of the 2 billion left. Possibly reducing, due to decreasing birthrates, to around 750 million by 2050.
You are assuming 'good food production' magically no longer relies on plenty of fuel, open pollinated seeds, non-petrochemical fertilizer and pesticides, and transportation of the bulk foods to the cities.
Do you think that the power grid will stay up?
