[NevadaGhosts]

I have noticed that some new posters here (especially in this forum) are having a very difficult time believing in the whole peak oil concept or it's dire consequences. When the truth is staring them right in the face and they can't see it, it's usually called denial. I see all of these fancy arguments saying how breeder reactors and other unproven real world technologies are the answer to oil depletion. I also see many arguments from people that really cannot understand the big picture of peak oil and it's catostrophic effects that it will have on an oil-dependent modern society as ours is. Placing faith in unproven and unrealistic technologies to save the human race is extremely dangerous. Unproven technologies that look good on paper usually don't work so good in the real world. Just remember that dollar for dollar, no other technology can ever even come close to replacing cheap oil- ever. Also, the earth's sustainable population has been passed by about 4 billion people. No technology can save us from world overpopulation and resource depletion. New technologies will not prevent the American dollar from becoming worthless, nor will it prevent the US government from going bankrupt and collapsing (which is already beginning to happen).

Anyways, the point I am trying to make is that if we realist/survialist peak oilers (many of who are seriously preparing for bad times) are proven wrong about peak oil and some super technology comes along, then so what. We realists have little to lose. But the overly-optimistic techno-faith people that are proven wrong about peak oil, and society collapses, has much to lose... perhaps their lives. It doesn't hurt to be a little bit more open-minded and plan ahead for a 'just in case' crash scenario.

[theshadypeach]

Yep. Preparing for the worst, even if things turn out well, is nothing to be ashamed of. What's the worst that can happen; you become more self-sufficient and self-reliant, having less of a toll on the environment? I'd say living an agrarian or survivalist lifestyle isn't that bad even when times are stable.

Anyways, as many have repeated on this thread: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

[jato]

Can the hydro & biomass grow to fill the other sources of depleting energy?

I believe that in 100 years we will be more or less out of fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels, we will not be able to build nuclear reactors (IMHO). Of course we don't have to run out in order to be in serious economic trouble. It takes a certain type of thinking to understand this problem. Most people don't think even one year into the future. While I am not the best communicator here, I understand the problems we face.

People are different from one another. Most of us here have already chosen our paths. I am married, have a house & 3 kids. All of this costs money. I don't have much money to prepare. I do not have the skills or the resources to head to the hills just yet. I am trying to prepare, but it is difficult. I have to maintain my family, job, etc.

I have a very strong "gut" feeling that we are in for some serious times ahead! I don't think technology will save our industrial way of life; however it will be invaluable on a small scale.

I try to imagine: What if I had a million extra dollars to prepare? I still don't know where I would go and exactly how I would end up preparing. There are so many variables to consider when it comes to adapting to a crash of an overpopulated industrial civilization.

The only conclusion I have come up with is I need to pool my recourses with other like minded individuals. However, it's hard because most Peak Oilers want to go off in many different directions.

[NevadaGhosts]

Jato,

Don't feel too bad about not having much money to prepare. I don't have much money for preparation either! But little things can go a long ways. As you know, guns will be of prime importance in the event of a crash. I'm sure you already own guns due to the fact that you are in law enforcement. Hell, my wife and I plan to do some wilderness living if things get really bad. We plan on a small group made up of a few families. I feel very capable of doing this. Come on over to Nevada if things get really bad and we'll set up a small wilderness community (very small) together. I cannot imagine trying to fend off starving people from stealiing food out of my fields. No thanks. Anyways, just do a little preparing at a time (which I'm sure you have). My wife and I don't have children, but my sister has 4! So I do understand how difficult it can be to prepare without a lot of extra money. But I wish you and your family the best of luck. Really.

[Permanently_Baffled]

I agree with you guys. Preperation is limited by your circumstances. I do not have the resources or time to set up a fully self sufficient homestead and learn all the skills required.

I will prepare by getting rid of all my debt (including mortgage), stock up on a few luxuries and essentials, try and accumulate some savings, plant what veggies I can in the garden(only small ) But beyond this it a case of praying that society holds it together in my part of the world and hope that the worst it gets in my lifetime is rationing.

I'm hopeful that I can perhaps I can get a job locally at one of the many farms , or at farmers markets to at least put some extra food on the table. Mind you its only practical to do this once I get kicked out of my current (better paid) job.

All the best guys , hold onto your hats and clench those buttcheeks its gonna get bumpy!

PB

[NevadaGhosts]

Very well said, Permanently_Baffled. I really hope the best for you, even if things don't get really bad. There is one very simple philosophy that can change one's life forever. Here goes...

'A person cannot truly begin to live life until they have no more fear of death.'

I look upon peak oil as more of a challenge than fear. I totally believe in life after death. Not the Christian heaven, but the spiritual world. I have seen spirits and ghosts many times in my lifetime, with my own eyes. I know it's all real (the spirit world). I have little fear of death. It's not really the end, but a new beginning. I don't expect most people here to believe what I am saying until they have seen it with their own eyes. Especially since many people here have a scientific background. We can all laugh about it together when we (eventually) get to the other side.

[DamianB]

I'm confused by the doomer/survivalist arguement presented here: if you truly believe that there's going to be some sort of anarchy breaking out and you want you and your family to live, why hang on to your current lifestyle, what are you waiting for?

Another question I'd like to ask: "Do you want society to break down?" If not, and you're not prepared to change your current lifestyle because of money issues, how about acting, persuading, advocating or educating (all free or cheap) so that friends, relatives, your community and local legislators are working to prevent a breakdown?

[Madpaddy]

Just knowing about and accepting the PO is a good start. When things start to go wrong at least you will know why. And all those people you tried to warn will think you are some sort of a prophet. They will deify you and bring you food etc. for more visions of the future.

Ok - maybe not but mental preparation is half the battle and of course a few firearms and ammo won't hurt either.

[NevadaGhosts]

I'm confused by the doomer/survivalist arguement presented here: if you truly believe that there's going to be some sort of anarchy breaking out and you want you and your family to live, why hang on to your current lifestyle, what are you waiting for?

Another question I'd like to ask: "Do you want society to break down?" If not, and you're not prepared to change your current lifestyle because of money issues, how about acting, persuading, advocating or educating (all free or cheap) so that friends, relatives, your community and local legislators are working to prevent a breakdown?

Good questions. Sadly, most Americans think you are a nut case if you try to talk to them about peak oil and a society collapse. I don't think any of us want a collapse. I am comfortable with my life as is. I am not materialistic at all. But if and when the time comes for personal survival, my wife and I will not be among the starving. That much is certain. The longer we can pepare before a likely crash, the better. Most of us aren't rich, you know.

[Licho]

[img]
Can the hydro & biomass grow to fill the other sources of depleting energy?

Why should they? Modern societies in europe live at 1/2 of energy and could live with less. And not only hydro&biomass have to replace oil. We have abundant coal, abundant nuclear fission fuels and virtually inexhaustible nuclear fusion fuels + extremely huge and powerfull thermonuclear reactor just 8 light-minutes away.

I believe that in 100 years we will be more or less out of fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels, we will not be able to build nuclear reactors (IMHO).

Why not? This looks like extreme lack of imagination
It doesn't matter whether energy source is oil, or nuclear - if you have power to extract/transport materials, nothing prevents you from building new reactors using energy that existing reactors produce.. Really no problem here at all.. It's like saying that electricity produced by natural gas have so high quality, that it cannot be replaced by electricity produced by hydro powerplants.

I have a very strong "gut" feeling that we are in for some serious times ahead! I don't think technology will save our industrial way of life; however it will be invaluable on a small scale.

Don't worry, we wont notice much first years or even decades after PO.. less driving, bigger inflation and that's it.. No roaming bandits everywhere, just a small powerdown/recession..

[Kingcoal]

When people argue that their prediction of the future is more accurate than others, all you have to do is look at the most real thing of all: track record. The problem I have with a lot of doomers is that they talk with incredible arrogance and authority, but tend to have no more credibility in their predictions than your average economist. Honestly, other than Hubert, peakers have a bad track record. Campbell predicted peak oil in 1996 and two years later we had the cheapest oil of all time (when adjusted for inflation.)

I'm not saying that hydrocarbons will go on forever. I'm just saying that we should stick with science and keep an open mind. One thing I've learned in life is that timing is literally everything. Survivalists have been going into the woods, living out their lives and dying for centuries, often bitter that they prepared for the end, made huge sacrifices and it never came.

[lorenzo]

Can we please add the "religiously pessimistic" point of view?

Peak Oil Panic reminds me a bit of Global Warming Extinction Fantasies.

It just seems that a small number of people need Apocalyptic Visions in order to survive the dullness of daily life, which scares them. I think it must be something genetic. It's a subconscious coping strategy.

James Lovelock, the father of environmentalism and the man who crafted the Gaia thesis, is now pitching to nuclear energy. Unthinkable for his early followers. The fundamentalists now call him a traitor to the Ideal.
But he's tired of the religious doom and gloom thinking of amateur environmentalists and the visciousness and totalitarian ways in which they promote their incorrect ideas. He understands that environmentalism has become a Religion which fills the vacuum of our cold, secular, atomistic society.

Long ago, Lovelock, a realist, said: there's a problem, so let's fix it. Then the Panic People took over and only retained the oh no, there's a problem bit.

I see the same happening with peak oil. Nobody is saying there isn't a problem. But thank God, most of us are looking for solutions, while others start to tremble, give up, and resort to End of the World Hallucinations.

Psychotic behavior in the face of danger has never been a good coping strategy; we need clever, calm and realistic engineers, scientists, economists and ordinary people. For its survival, the human race has always depended on them.

Of course, Panic and Paranoia serves a function too: it mobilizes the realists to do something. Their work is twofold: getting rid of the problem, and getting rid of the Paranoia as well. It must be hard work.

[khebab]

Jato, thank you for your graphic, it speaks for itself!

I'm just amazed by the amount of lost energy (55.9%). The other interesting number is 26.9% of energy is used for transportation wich consumes 26.7 / (14.9 + 24.9)= 70% of our oil production. The question to ask is what are the vital inputs of energy we do really need in order to keep our society from collapsing and what is lifestyle related and could be slash down? for instance, more mass transportation and more efficient vehicles could strongly reduced this number of 26.7%. We have to use oil where it is essential and vital.

My point is, there is plenty of room for adjustements in our energy consumption. In my opnion, Doomsayers are failing to see this argument. Societies will adapt when oil will no longer be cheap because our lifestyle will change. Mine has already changed (I sold my car).

[urbanorange]

I have to agree with lorenzo and the other pragmatists in this thread. The hypocrisy of the religiously zealot Armaggedonists is astounding. They have "plans" to head for the hills when they are "out of debt" and more "stable financially." They say they will be living a "subsistence" lifestyle and that chaos will ensue. In other words, they spent their entire lives making money, acquiring possessions, "getting theirs and screw everyone else," living an incredibly abundant lifestyle not wanting for anything, and then want to turn around and say "I'm heading for the hills, I'm getting mine, screw everyone else, I'll kill for a bucket of water and a can of beans if I have to. Guns are more important than ever." This is the same bizarre mentality that permeates American culture at the present time. Yet, the dumbstruck sheep who "just don't get it" are the ones who are selfish, self-absorbed, and ignorant.

Much of the logic surrounding their "planning" makes no sense. If you really think our economy will cave in with death, destruction, no food, and darkness everywhere, why are you even *bothering* to get out of debt? You should be applying for every credit card under the sun, maxing these cards out, and buying your tools, guns, ammo, beans, land "off the grid," spinning wheels, and milk goats. Why would you waste your time "getting out of debt?" And "having no money" is simply no excuse, people. Dead people get applications for credit cards. Credit is the easiest game in town, and if you really believed we were going to hell in a handbasket, you'd get the hell out of Dodge ASAP.

If the doom-and-gloomers have issues with fear of death, ennui in daily life, or facing their own mortality, the place to work out this stuff is in a therapist's office, not by spreading misinformation that is not evidence-based and engaging in magical thinking that borders on religious fanaticism.

[NevadaGhosts]

I still think the ultra-optimists here don't get the whole picture. This is more than just about technology and peak oil. The US government is about to collapse under the weight of heavy national and consumer debt. Most smart anylysts agree we cannot continue this way without a finacnial meltdown. The US dollar is becoming worthless. If and when other countries stop bailing out our heavy debt, the US is screwed. Not to mention what will happen when oil countries start trading in petro dollars instead of US dollars. And president Bush is doing absolutely nothing about any of this. A financial meltdown in the US is already beginning to take place, amd a lot of investors/anylysts are starting to get very worried. And on top of this, we are facing higher and higher energy prices, which will eventually dramatically drive up the price of everything else. When all of the optimists here see the US stock market crash, then you'll know for sure that it was all real. So yes, a society collpase in the US is very, very possible. We are sailing into uncharted waters here.

[lorenzo]

Not to mention what will happen when oil countries start trading in petro-€uros instead of US dollars.

That's what Saddam did.

[NevadaGhosts]

I have to agree with lorenzo and the other pragmatists in this thread. The hypocrisy of the religiously zealot Armaggedonists is astounding. They have "plans" to head for the hills when they are "out of debt" and more "stable financially." They say they will be living a "subsistence" lifestyle and that chaos will ensue. In other words, they spent their entire lives making money, acquiring possessions, "getting theirs and screw everyone else," living an incredibly abundant lifestyle not wanting for anything, and then want to turn around and say "I'm heading for the hills, I'm getting mine, screw everyone else, I'll kill for a bucket of water and a can of beans if I have to. Guns are more important than ever." This is the same bizarre mentality that permeates American culture at the present time. Yet, the dumbstruck sheep who "just don't get it" are the ones who are selfish, self-absorbed, and ignorant.

Much of the logic surrounding their "planning" makes no sense. If you really think our economy will cave in with death, destruction, no food, and darkness everywhere, why are you even *bothering* to get out of debt? You should be applying for every credit card under the sun, maxing these cards out, and buying your tools, guns, ammo, beans, land "off the grid," spinning wheels, and milk goats. Why would you waste your time "getting out of debt?" And "having no money" is simply no excuse, people. Dead people get applications for credit cards. Credit is the easiest game in town, and if you really believed we were going to hell in a handbasket, you'd get the hell out of Dodge ASAP.

If the doom-and-gloomers have issues with fear of death, ennui in daily life, or facing their own mortality, the place to work out this stuff is in a therapist's office, not by spreading misinformation that is not evidence-based and engaging in magical thinking that borders on religious fanaticism.

The blind optimism by some of the posters here astounds me. Don't any of you people read the news? The warning signs are everywhere. And it's just going to get worse. Great societies have collapsed throughout history. Why is the US so immune to this? Just because it has never happened here doesn't mean that it can't.

And why should we 'waste our time getting out of debt'? Because if and when there is a breakdown in American society, president Bush (or whoever) will still try to maintain control by declaring a police state. And I have a feeling that all those debts that people owe wouldn't just happilly be forgotten. It's called work camps. And if you think this is unimaginable in the US think again. Did any of you know that large camps for this very purpose are already set up and staffed (but empty) in almost every US state? If a police state were declared, the US constitution goes out the window. And Bush knows this.

And I really don't appreciate being called a religious fanatic and told that I need to see a therapist because I am a realist and I can see all the warning signs. What complete and total arrogance on your part. Amazing. The ultra-blind optimists here are playing a very dangerous game based on blind faith. If you are wrong, you have everything to lose. Just remember that.

[NevadaGhosts]

Not to mention what will happen when oil countries start trading in petro-€uros instead of US dollars.

That's what Saddam did.

You are correct.

[jato]

Yes, I am illogical & flawed!

Re: Becoming more efficient with our energy use.

Let’s say the USA becomes like Europe (yuck!) and uses half of the energy. Great, if we fall below the oil and/or natural gas production curve that means we can continue to grow, thereby increasing our energy use.

If we cut our energy use and somehow have %0 growth, we will still consume our fossil fuels and supply will still run out. But this model is fantasy!


Re: Nuclear

I don't see how Nuclear can be the dominating energy source on a global scale. Peak Uranium, cost, electricity transmission loss, waste, etc.


I will agree that survivalism is not the answer (surprise!). IMHO there is no answer. However, the survival route is the best answer for me and it is the route I am going to take.

[Licho]

still think the ultra-optimists here don't get the whole picture. This is more than just about technology and peak oil. The US government is about to collapse under the weight of heavy national and consumer debt. Most smart anylysts agree we cannot continue this way without a finacnial meltdown. The US dollar is becoming worthless. If and when other countries stop bailing out our heavy debt, the US is screwed. Not to mention what will happen when oil countries start trading in petro dollars instead of US dollars.

Maybe that's the reason why most "optimists" as you call them are not from USA
They probably don't care/know about US problems. However, these are problems of just one country and are not directly related to peak oil problem..