[onlooker]

Since the economic situation is fluid and different in different areas of the US, I thought I would create a thread whereby we can call contribute our personal experience, observations and insight as to the economic situation in the neck of the woods where each of you reside. I do this because I find people do not trust certain media or sites and others trust those same. So I highlight personal, so that everyone can relate what they are verifying with their own senses as to the economic situation or via personal anecdotes. I personally, in my neighborhood do notice economic stagnation, less workers, long lasting shut business premises, less food per package. Thoughts? Oh and people from others countries feel free to chime in.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Since the economic situation is fluid and different in different areas of the US, I thought I would create a thread whereby we can call contribute our personal experience, observations and insight as to the economic situation in the neck of the woods where each of you reside. I do this because I find people do not trust certain media or sites and others trust those same. So I highlight personal, so that everyone can relate what they are verifying with their own senses as to the economic situation or via personal anecdotes. I personally, in my neighborhood do notice economic stagnation, less workers, long lasting shut business premises, less food per package. Thoughts? Oh and people from others countries feel free to chime in.

I understand the desire to do this, but it probably is meaningless, aside from entertainment value.

Much of the "bad economic news" we get is of the flavor: 'we're doomed. My brother in law and my neighbor were both layed off. Thus, the economy is terrible.'

While such anecdotes are interesting to the people involved, they don't say much about the actual economy. For example, the hundreds of friends, relatives, and nearby neighbors who haven't lost their jobs and are quietly sitting home or shopping or whatever don't get represented by such "personal experience" reporting.

By the way, this is EXACLY the same sort of anecdotal "evidence" which AGW deniers like to use on their blogs. I don't like it there either.

[onlooker]

Well if personal experiences are not useful and certain sites are just doom mongering well then that leaves us with the MSM. Thanks but no thanks.

[Cog]

Even in a state which has no budget and is functionally broke, I see no slow-down in road and bridge construction. Apparently borrowed money works just as well as real money when it comes time to cash the paycheck.

[Rod_Cloutier]

I work for a mega-corporation food wholesaler. The company is absolutely panicked that growth has slowed from the 30 year long term average of 15%, to 7-8%. They are buckling down, cutting waste, trimming high wage management positions, and increasing sales targets to get growth back to 15% per year.

I don't personally see it coming. I think times of 15% growth per year are done, and 7-8 % isn't that bad really. Woe to business as usual if growth actually fell to zero or if margins started to contract. The whole economy of scale business model would crash and burn.

The steady state economy that so many people speak about achieving is a myth; we either grow or collapse.

[MonteQuest]

Well, here, smack dab in the middle of where most of the corn and soybeans are grown, everything is in a deflationary spiral; from gas to seed to anhydrous ammonia (NG). Corn and soybean prices are too low for anyone renting land to even break even. We are dependent upon China for soybean demand, and their economy is waning. Soybeans are too low right now to warrant planting any next year for most farmers. Employment is high. Weather is weird. 53 degrees today. No snow anywhere. Usually the high is 25 with 2 feet of snow.

[MonteQuest]

The steady state economy that so many people speak about achieving is a myth; we either grow or collapse.

Few people seem to grasp this and don't understand why conservation won't work. It cuts sales!

[GregT]

Even in a state which has no budget and is functionally broke, I see no slow-down in road and bridge construction. Apparently borrowed money works just as well as real money when it comes time to cash the paycheck.

Interesting concept Cog. Tell us, what is 'real money' and where does it come from?

[Rod_Cloutier]

Few people seem to grasp this and don't understand why conservation won't work. It cuts sales!

This is the real story. All business is driven by investors seeking a return on their money. If the return is zero or God forbid, negative, then investors take their money out and the business stops. I think we are at, and shortly we will be beyond the limits to growth. Investment returns are falling, and when they go to zero or negative then the whole show stops.

[GregT]

The steady state economy that so many people speak about achieving is a myth; we either grow or collapse.

A steady state economy cannot exist within our present economy. The present economy would need to be collapsed first.

Two completely different animals.

[MonteQuest]

Apparently borrowed money works just as well as real money when it comes time to cash the paycheck.

Ahem....real money is borrowed money; all of it.

[GregT]

Ahem....real money is borrowed money; all of it.

Absolutely correct Monte. It really is amazing how many people are still unable to understand such a simple concept.

[careinke]

I am becoming convinced we (The US) are very quickly going into a severe deflationary depression, and cash will be king.

I am basing this on demographics, most of us baby boomers are retiring, and we are such a huge population bulge, what we do overrides everything economically.

Most people retire with a smaller income stream than when working. Obviously with less money, there is less consumption/demand of goods and services. Less demand for stuff, translates into fewer jobs. Particularly hard hit will be large ticket recreational items like Quads, jet ski's and snowmobiles. Because were old!!

Lots of retired couples, with the kids out of the house, will sell for a smaller easier to maintain place. This will lower the price on larger homes as more come on the market. Also, remember death also usually leads to a sale, (We aren't getting any younger), adding to the surplus. In our area, house prices have reached pretty frothy levels.

Retired people will go more conservative in their investments selling stock and converting it to Bonds and Cash. This will cause a major stock market crash (Dow less than 6,000) wiping out trillions of dollars.

Failing companies and banks default on loans wiping out even more trillions of debt (dollars). As the dollars decrease, they become more valuable (hence deflation).

Big banks raise lending requirements and interest for home and other loans because; if dollars are appreciating in value, why loan it out for a depreciating asset?

Finally, the 1% understand this, will speed the process along, and will be standing by with loads of cash, to buy real assets very cheaply, after the crash. Then they expect inflation to kick back in for more profit on the way back up.

Although I'm fairly confident about the deflationary depression, I'm not sure there will be enough left to go into the inflation side. Instead, I expect pitchforks.

[onlooker]

Yes, I think some of these economic problems stem from the fact that our economy especially our debt based system depends on growth, not just investors but creditors/banks need growth lest the loaning is just not practical. So all this seems like a house of cards ready to fall once growth demonstrably ceases. Oh specifically Care is right about the baby boomers having a big effect as well.

[MonteQuest]

I am basing this on demographics, most of us baby boomers are retiring, and we are such a huge population bulge, what we do overrides everything economically.

Yes, this is one of the factors I wrote about in my initial Peak oil Perfect Storm post some 12 years ago.

Seventy-seven million baby-boomers are going to start retiring in five years' time. As they do, the number of retirees in America will double. At the same time the workforce supporting them will grow by a mere 15%. Solving this problem will hurt like hell.

[GHung]

MonteQuest said; "Few people seem to grasp this and don't understand why conservation won't work. It cuts sales!"

It doesn't matter much since conservation by other means will necessarily become the norm, even if the frogs in their pots aren't aware of this in real time. Best get used to it now. I'm certainly under no obligation to support a failing economic system, or the collective's attempts to preserve that system through massive injections of faux wealth and debt. Seems like adding water to soup and claiming you're feeding a lot more people.

Economically, in my area, I see a lot of people pushing rocks up hills, trying to force growth where demand is waning, rather than adapting to low/no growth. Trying to take charge of things that they have no control over is de facto consumption for consumption's sake. Creates no real wealth in the end; merely destroys it.

Eating their children's seed corn, they are.

[onlooker]

Yes I am afraid we are wed to a growth paradigm and will be so till we cannot continue as such, then we will not.

[MonteQuest]

Eating their children's seed corn, they are.

Today, one must buy their seed corn from Monsanto. You can't use corn from last years crop to plant this year. It's against the law.

[GHung]

While the powerful try to position themselves for whatever may come, the meek can do the same thing. The Monsantos of the world think they will inherit the Earth. Ultimately, their power will be unenforceable .

[ennui2]

By the way, this is EXACLY the same sort of anecdotal "evidence" which AGW deniers like to use on their blogs. I don't like it there either.

Since we'll never have a utopia, there's never been a time in our history where everyone unanimously proclaimed that the economy is doing well, because there's always someone who is down on their luck, and to him, the economy sucks. I would think this even extends to the boom times of the roaring 20s and Mad Men era.

So this is a completely subjective thing.

From a political standpoint, if someone wanted something to rail about, they'd never lack finding material to highlight the fact that there are poor or unemployed people or that Joe Sixpack wish he could afford a Mercedez and has to settle for a used Chevy. Therefore people's political agendas latch onto threads like this and go for broke. This hits critical mass when people who have an axe to grind against capitalism in general start commenting. Then the bar is set impossibly high for capitalism to deliver prosperity, and so it's always doom all the time.

So then you fall back to statistics, and people twist that as well. Good statistics are questioned (i.e. shadowstats) and they're prone to make correlation is causation arguments, things that confirm a certain axe to grind but might not hold up to further scrutiny.

Not having read through the entire thread yet, I'm expecting it to go in the above directions.

As for similarities to AGW, yes, there's some, but in the end there's no alternative than to look to aggregate statistics.