ROCKMAN wrote:Long before the EROEI gets below 3 or so nearly all drilling for oil will cease because the VALUE (not the Btu content) of the production would be less then the cost (and not the Btu's consumed) of a well.
No. I am saying the direct diesel consumption used by the oil industry is very low: 1.6% of their production. Rockman has stated a similiar position many times. This is not the same as EROEI. When calculating EROEI, there are many indirect energy costs you have to add, depending on what boundry conditions you draw. For example: The energy used to make the steel, well casing, tools, transportation, etc. All of these will obviously lower the EROEI. However much of that energy doesn't even coming from oil. For example: coal is used to make steel. So saying something ridiculous like: "The Etp model accounts for the rise in demand. It is coming mostly from the oil industry itself!" Is nothing but pure BS.SumYunGai wrote:1.6%? So you are claiming that the ERoEI of US oil production is 62.5:1? That cannot be possibly true.
I already debunked this in an earlier post. Rockdoc and Rockman have as well. Did you miss the part where the number of drilling rigs has declined substantially? Oil sector activity is down substantially this year and last year from it's peak. And yet US oil consumption still grew. I know you won't take my word for it. So here are some more facts for you:SumYunGai wrote:I am saying that most of the recent demand increase was from the oil industry, and you are saying that most of the oil produced does not make diesel. That is a total non sequitur. You are comparing apples and oranges by using the phrase "most of it" to mean something very different than I meant.
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquid FuelsConsumption
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption increased by an estimated 290,000 b/d (1.5%) in 2015. Liquid fuels consumption is forecast to increase by 170,000 b/d (0.9%) in 2016 and by an additional 90,000 b/d (0.5%) in 2017.
Motor gasoline consumption is forecast to increase by 150,000 b/d (1.7%) to 9.31 million b/d in 2016, which would make it the highest annual average gasoline consumption on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2007. The increase in gasoline consumption reflects a forecast 2.3% increase in highway travel (because of employment growth and lower retail gasoline prices) that is partially offset by increases in vehicle fleet fuel economy. EIA forecasts that gasoline consumption in 2017 will be close to the 2016 average.
In 2015, jet fuel consumption increased by an estimated 70,000 b/d (4.7%). Jet fuel consumption is forecast to increase by 30,000 b/d (2.0%) in 2016 and remain unchanged in 2017, with improvements in average airline fleet fuel economy offset by growth in freight and passenger travel.
Consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, is expected to fall by 100,000 b/d (2.4%) in 2016, after falling by 60,000 b/d (1.5%) in 2015. Falling distillate consumption in 2016 is the result of relatively warm winter temperatures, reduced oil and natural gas drilling (which uses diesel fuel in its operations), and declining coal production.
WTF are you talking about? Natural gas is fast replacing coal for power plants. Keeping the lights on is critical to maintaining BAU. It's also often used for home-heating, keeping people from freezing in the winter. And you just casually discount its value to civilization?????????????????????
ralfy wrote:According to this article, both energy and oil consumption have been rising, but the growth is slowing down due to limits to growth:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/06/23/b ... gy-demand/
Oilfield services recovery unlikely in 2016
Although some smaller oilfield service players are operating at (or below) true variable cash breakevens, Schlumberger has cautioned analysts against using their failure as a basis for a bottom, since their equipment is likely to end up in the hands of larger players.
Indeed, the profitability of small companies shouldn’t be expected to define the bottom of this oil service cycle. The US market is currently operating below 50% of peak activity and may never be called upon to grow production at the same pace as it did from 2012 to 2014.
The market is sending signals to the oilfield service industry: scrap equipment or run it into the ground. Halliburton estimates 25% of pumping capacity has been cannibalised beyond recovery.
When an extractive industry knows that its deposit is soon going to be uneconomical to work, they will often pump the depreciation of their infrastructure. Instead of replacing a leaking pipe they'll throw a quit weld patch on it. Instead of replacing a blown tire on a fork lift, they'll run with one flat out of 5.
~BWHill
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:The only thing mysterious about this is why anyone finds it surprising or thinks it was hard to predict.
The oil industry works the same way, drilling rates are in the toilet so lots of drilling rigs and their crews were put in storage and laid off. Things have continued at a low level long enough that to keep the working rigs operational parts have been stripped from the rigs in storage. The only thing mysterious about this is why anyone finds it surprising or thinks it was hard to predict.
ROCKMAN wrote:And back to the basics: drilling decisions have never and will nevertnevert be based upon EROEI.
ralfy wrote:According to this article, both energy and oil consumption have been rising, but the growth is slowing down due to limits to growth:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/06/23/b ... gy-demand/
StarvingLion wrote:The bankruptcy of the Concorde in the beginning of 2004 (perfectly coinciding with Peak Oil) signaled the death of the Oil Industry as well.
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