[ROCKMAN]

Actually it was the POD that led to higher oil prices which THEN led to more production which THEN led to lower prices which are NOW leading to lower production which will likely lead to higher future prices.

But similar dynamics are at work with all commodities. Here's a chart of the Producer Price Index by Industry: Iron, Steel Pipe and Tube from Purchased Steel: Oil Country Tubular Goods:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU33121033121001

The price index fell 17% after the recent peak in 2012 and has subsequently fallen a total of 31%. All of which happened after a 20% increase in one year during 2011. Which followed even higher increases from prices prior to the shale boom. is the second most expensive factor (after drill rig rates) for beginning of the horizontal shale drilling. Just one more "victim" of the POD. LOL.

[PeakOiler]

If I did it right this is the chart the EIA makes from the data you two gentlemen are talking about.

The big spikes in the 1950's and 1960's is when there were disruptions overseas so more USA oil was exported to make up for the shortfall elsewhere. In the 1960's the USA started importing more and more oil from overseas ourselves, then as the TAPS started producing a lot that oil was 'exported' to Asia in exchange for lighter crude shipped to California.

That's it, Tanada! Yes, the run up in exports in the '80's was about when Alaska's N. Slope came on stream and then came down when the export ban was put into effect. There were quite a few "grandfathered" exporting areas apparently, so the decline was gradual.

[ROCKMAN]

First, N Slope production began in 1981, peaked in 1988 and then has slowly and steadily declined over the next 28 yeasrs. Second there were no "grandfathered" exporting areas since any oil from any well in the lower 48 was free to be exported. And why: because no "export ban was put into effect." Look at the chart closely: more US oil was exported during the year AFTER the "ban" was signed into law then the year BEFORE it was signed. And one more f*cking point so many don't get: the oil export "ban" law specifically allows oil to be exported to Canadas with NO RESTRICTIONS WHAT SO EVER! And guess what country has received the vast majority of US EXPORTED OIL. Do I have to give the answer? LOL.

More about N Slope oil. From http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/alaskaoil.asp

"We don't need to engage in such economic speculation to debunk the rumor that all crude oil produced in Alaska is currently shipped to Japan, however. The Trans Alaska Pipeline Authorization Act of 1973 effectively required all petroleum from Alaska's North Slope (ANS) to be sent to U.S. refineries. Congress passed legislation in 1995 eliminating that requirement, but: Alaskan crude oil exports effectively ended by May 2000 (due largely to allegations that British Petroleum had shipped ANS crude to Asian buyers in order to prop up flagging prices on the U.S. West Coast, claims which prompted legislators to begin calling on President Clinton to reinstate the ban on Alaskan oil exports). Even during the period between 1996 and 2000 when ANS crude was being shipped abroad (primarily to China, Japan, and Korea), such exports accounted for only 7% of total ANS production."

I'm sorry but I can't begin to imagine what goes thru a person's mind who sees the data just presented and still thinks there has been any regulatory restriction to exporting US oil ever since the Texas Rail Road Commission lost that power. And actually the TRRC hasn't lost the power to restrict Texas oil production: the "allowable regulations" are still the law here. Every month the Commission meets and sets the allowable for the next month. But since the early 70's it has always been set at 100%. But for whatever reason they wanted to reduce Texas oil production in half they could set the allowable at 50%.

And again the FACT that US oil exports have been ongoing for many decades still isn't THE BIG ISSUE: in 2015, before the POTUS allegedly ended the oil export "ban", refinery products made from TEN TIMES AS MUCH OIL as we exported were EXPORTED out of the US.

Sorry for being so redundant but it's really difficult to make some folks see when they refuse to open their f*cking eyes. LOL.

[StarvingLion]

The Globalization Racket is a fucking scam...no wonder the debt donkeys are dragging the dimwitted oil industry into the grave with them. Poor Adam, he'll have to put in a call to the Google scam to start censoring...lol.

Globalization Made Economies of Scale - Corporate Profit - The Sole Priority

Globalization placed Economies of scale ahead of household income, distribution of wealth, quality of life, sustainability of the planet, long-term employment, and other qualitative factors. The global commodification of labour assured that the efficiency gains from the economies of scale accrued almost entirely to capital. Local companies across the entire planet could not compete with the established multinationals which had economies of scale, low cost of capital, and labour cost advantages no local company could match. Free Trade agreements assured that the largest global multinationals had unimpeded access to local markets worldwide. The result was the wholesale liquidation of local industries, with the attendant loss of diversified skills and incomes. For everyday workers, the benefit of “low prices” could not offset the loss of income from the global labour arbitrage conducted by companies placing supply in one locale and demand in another. Despite relentless growth, large companies on balance destroyed jobs in developed nations while creating new low paying jobs in the developing nations.

The accumulation of debt resulting from the inevitable trade imbalance papered over the declining standard of living that was taking place in broad daylight. Debt was misconstrued as a form of wealth even as debt levels climbed to unsustainable levels. Rentier-owned politicians looked the other way to growing inequality and unsustainability and assured everyone that Globalization was the best path to increased wealth. And indeed wealth was increasing, but it accrued to an ever shrinking ultra-wealthy rentier class - those who take their income from capital instead of labour. By the end, only rampant monetary expansion to fund asset bubbles could pretend to offset the growing global poverty exported via the global trade imbalance. It was a first order delusion carried out on an epic scale, with the full imprimatur of the morally bankrupt economics profession.

[StarvingLion]

Hahahaha...Adam's fairy world is collapsing.

Companies are now imploding, across all income levels...

Get the meat hooks and piano wire...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wave-o ... 2016-09-08

"At least 10 companies this week alone have lowered outlooks for the second half of the year"

"S&P 500 companies are expected to show a decline in EPS of 2.12%...that would be a sixth straight quarter of decline. As recently as the end of March, analysts were expecting EPS growth of 3.2% for the quarter"

'Wave of profit and sales warnings puts spotlight on new risks companies face'

[onlooker]

Starving brilliant. One of the best posts I have read ever on this site. I will only add about how they pulled it off. Start with the history. We have a unequal world going into the Industrial Revolution. Then, even more unequal as the few industrial countries become enormously rich compared to most other countries. Then we have the US taking the lead and already being a country hijacked by the oligarchs particularly the mighty Banking cartel. After WWII, we had the Bretton Woods agreement in which the US solidified its power and embarked on becoming the sole superpower. When the Soviet Union was able to keep up with them in the nuclear arsenal race, a subtle change of course was enacted. No longer would the Oligarchs utilize a country to achieve total power but simply allow for Corporations to rule the world. Well, that fit in nicely with the agenda of the rich countries as they had all the strong corporations already. Well, then Globalization was the method to do this. Make the entire planet a market place for both consumerism and the exploitation of planet and people. However, some resistance was encountered. No problem, countries and their leadership structure were bribed, deceived, blackmailed, coerced, threatened etc. Some willingly adhered to the Globalization for it benefited the high and ruling class of countries. Others were destabilized via internalized mounting of opposition elements especially in South and Central America to stage coups or to assassinate foreign presidents. Sometimes the US military was used, sometimes black ops, special forces etc. Then international organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank, The World Trade Organization and the many Central Banks were utilized to both grant legitimacy to Globalization and also to coordinate it. In the midst of this, was the Central Banks and their exploitative and lucrative lending model. It became international as Central Banks were set up in almost every country under the guise of every country needed to procure loans for development. Of course poor countries naively but willingly submitted. This debt regime has slowly spread its tentacles into every nook and cranny of the planet and basically holds humanity hostage as debt slaves. So, this is some background on how they did it. A coordinated effort achieved because of the vast amounts of money the Banking system, some corporations and the US and England had. Mods feel free to transfer this and other pertinent posts to appropriate threads. Sorry just replying to Starving post.

[ennui2]

Starving brilliant. One of the best posts I have read ever on this site.

In honor of Star Trek's 50th...



The words "Starving" and "brilliant" do not belong together, let alone the rest of the award you're pinning on him.

[radon1]

Starving brilliant. One of the best posts I have read ever on this site.

Absolutely. SL's ranting is at least far more coherent and eloquent than the idiotic ETP blather is. He should set up his own thread, "SL model", where curious readers could request a response to any and every question from his rant generator.

[radon1]

Definitely.

ETP shill shills ETP. Or ETP shills shill ETP. Very interesting. Why is this "shill shills" and "shills shill", rather than "shill shill" and "shills shills", as would be the case in a more or less standard language where the verb tends to follow the grammar form of the subject?

See, even as silly and empty thing as ETP can provide some food for thought for a curious mind.

[SumYunGai]

Definitely.

ETP shill shills ETP. Or ETP shills shill ETP. Very interesting. Why is this "shill shills" and "shills shill", rather than "shill shill" and "shills shills", as would be the case in a more or less standard language where the verb tends to follow the grammar form of the subject?

See, even as silly and empty thing as ETP can provide some food for thought for a curious mind.

I have reported this off-topic post. Perhaps you will be encouraged to stay on topic?

I am pretty sure it is still okay to make fun of the Etp model on this thread. Or even make serious posts about it. After all, we are on Pt.3 of this thread, and the Etp model has been a big part of this discussion from the very beginning. I really don't think that Tanada's general policy directive of not mentioning Etp applies to this particular thread. But I guess it is possible that you are right and I am the one who is misinterpreting. Perhaps Tanada could clear this up before we proceed any further.

By the way, oil is falling very hard today. More than a 3.67% decline.
After topping out at $47.71, it suddenly falls back to a $45 handle again. WTIC $45.81.
And the DOW is tanking as well. It is down to 18,160.91. -319.00 (-1.73%)

[ennui2]

Great. All the better at the pump, I say. If this is what peak-oil means, bring me more.

[radon1]

I have reported this off-topic post. Perhaps you will be encouraged to stay on topic?

This entire thread is off-topic. This is just another lightly disguised ETP shilling thread, and this has been clear from the outset. From time to time, the originator bumps it up with another glorifying psalm to the Etp group or whatever they are right out of the blue, so that it has become farcical by now. Making the place looking more and more like a cesspool.

[SumYunGai]

This entire thread is off-topic. This is just another lightly disguised ETP shilling thread...

No, it is not. This thread is about how oil prices will never recover. The Etp model should obviously be on topic, since it has been forecasting the oil price decline for more than 2 years with amazing accuracy. This thread is one of the last threads on this peak oil site that allows free and open discussion of the best oil depletion model ever conceived. And you want to shut off that discussion arbitrarily. Hmmm... It seems like you are afraid to have a fair debate about the Etp model.

Making the place looking more and more like a cesspool.

Are you saying there is something wrong with this fine forum?

By the way, oil is falling very hard today. More than a 3.67% decline.
After topping out at $47.71, it suddenly falls back to a $45 handle again. WTIC $45.81.
And the DOW is tanking as well. It is down to 18,160.91. -319.00 (-1.73%)

Great. All the better at the pump, I say. If this is what peak-oil means, bring me more.

It looks like you got your wish, ennui!

WTIC 45.54 -2.08 (-4.27%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)18,085.45 -394.46 (-2.13%)

[ennui2]

It looks like you got your wish, ennui!

Great! Wake me when the store shelves are empty and long-pork is on the menu.

[rockdoc123]

by the way, oil is falling very hard today. More than a 3.67% decline. 
After topping out at $47.71, it suddenly falls back to a $45 handle again. WTIC $45.81.
And the DOW is tanking as well. It is down to 18,160.91. -319.00 (-1.73%)

For those here who don’t seem to understand that the market is intimately tied in with economy.

1. This is the time of year where historically there is up to 25% more volatility on a day by day basis.
2. The Fed made comments regarding the need to hike interest rates soon
Both of these drive the DOW and S&P and will do so until the Fed makes a move and elections.

Dollar stronger today, profit taking after a big run-up yesterday equals rationale for a price drop in oil today. That being said it is still up 4% on the week.

What many seem to miss is that the price over the short term (which is measured in days, weeks and months) has a large component of control by market speculation of the type that says….”I think such and such news means the price will go up so I will take some long positions” or “ I think such and such news means the price will go down so I will take some short positions”. Over time market fundamentals always prevail, they always have in the past and there is no reason to expect them not to in the future. It does result in short periods of disconnect.