[copious.abundance]

/// LINK \\\

OGX Wades in Shallow Waters for Oil Riches
by Jeff Fick | Dow Jones Newswires | Wednesday, February 03, 2010

While the majority of the oil industry fawns over Brazil's recent deepwater offshore oil discoveries, Brazilian oil and gas company OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes S/A sticks closer to shore.

By focusing on shallow-water exploration concessions in Brazil's prolific Campos Basin -- where more than 85% of the country's crude is produced -- the independent driller has enjoyed a stunning amount of success.

This week alone, OGX has added an estimated 600 million to 1.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil to its portfolio. Perhaps international oil companies focused on Brazil's so-called subsalt oil reserves are looking for love in all the wrong places.

[...]

[TheDude]

What are these guys consuming, anyway?



Joint Oil Data Initiative

YOY Consumption shifts:

Code: Select all

   Sep2009   Oct2009
LPG   -6.4   0.65
Motor Gasoline (incl. aviation gasoline)   10.23   31.74
Kerosene (incl. jetkero/other kero)   7.03   9.1
Gas/Diesel Oil   -31.53   -27.52
Residual Fuel Oil   1.97   -2.68

[TheDude]

Brazil subsalt output to see early peak - minister | Reuters

* Subsalt, non-subsalt oil output same by 2015

* Planning minister's estimate conflicts with Petrobras'

* Surge in subsalt output will come in 2013-2015 period

SAO PAULO, March 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's subsalt oil
production could shoot up in 2013 and 2014 before leveling off
to match production in other off- and onshore areas, Planning
Minister Paulo Bernardo said on Thursday.

Output from the offshore subsalt region will grow slowly in
the next two years and jump significantly during 2013 and 2014,
said Bernardo, who spoke in an interview with the state
television channel. He did not provide estimates or give the
source of his projections.

"Maybe in 2015 output at the subsalt region will be as
significant as production at our current sources of crude," he
added.

Bernardo's estimates sharply contrast with estimates by
state-controlled oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA)(PBR.N), which
estimates subsalt production could match that of other regions
by 2020.

[copious.abundance]

The Planning minister? If it was their Energy minister I might take it more seriously.

In fact . . .

"Maybe in 2015 output at the subsalt region will be as significant as production at our current sources of crude,"

That does not say sub-salt production will *peak* in 2015, it merely says it will *match* production of post-salt production in 2015. That says nothing about what will happen *after* 2015.

Maybe somone has a transcript of the whole interview?

[rangerone314]

So when do we get to 90 mbbl/day?

[TheDude]

The Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management had a 2009 budge of $5.8 billion USD; I think his word carries some import. Cabinet of Brazil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All that's listed in the Wiki for 2010-2012 is 375/280/100 kb/d. Contrast this with 465 kb/d for 2009 and 640 kb/d for 2007. If those numbers are low show some evidence to the contrary, it shouldn't be hard to uncover. Ace pointed out that these huge production additions were showing negligible gains for output, owing to big declines in their heritage offshore fields. Consumption 2004-2008 averaged 3.67% growth. JODI didn't show much slacking off due to the recession, either.

Brazil will likely continue to sit and spin. Another factor in the UK being such a kickass exporter in its prime was that they were able to shed some of their oil consumption by fuel switching for power generation; unfortunately (or not) Brazil is 83.2% hydro and 3% oil. Perhaps they will will increase consumption of oil for power, or more likely NG; from 1990 to 2006 they went from 0 to 4.4% NG. Rest is nuke. You should compare the rise of the UK to what you think Brazil is capable of; exhaustive North Sea field data is to be had, and Stat Review covers prod/cons for both back to 1965.

Here's a start: UK average consumption growth 1965-2008 was 0.32%, #65 out of 70 countries BP covers. Brazil is #15, at 4.49%. Ooops, that's probably not what you want to hear...

[copious.abundance]

Timothy Geithner's Treasury Department has a budget many times that size, but that alone would hardly make him knowledgeable on future oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

[copious.abundance]

Ace pointed out that these huge production additions were showing negligible gains for output, owing to big declines in their heritage offshore fields...

Ace also told us almost a year ago that world C&C production would be roughly 71 million bpd by last November, when in reality it turned out to be over 73 million bpd. I hope no one is taking Ace too seriously.

[TheAntiDoomer]

Good points OF2, though I have to admit the dude is a heckuva spin meister for the dude crowd

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<

Petrobras to invest $220bn in new fields
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: March 20 2010 00:43 | Last updated: March 20 2010 00:43

Petrobras, the Brazilian national oil company, will spend between $200bn and $220bn over the next five years as it ramps up capital expenditure to develop potentially enormous new oil fields discovered off Brazil’s coast in 2007, Almir Barbassa, financial director, said on Friday night.

The amount, which includes spending on all Petrobras’s activities from exploration to production and refining, is a significant increase over the $174bn previously planned for 2009-2013. This year, the company plans to spend $47.3bn, easily the biggest capital expenditure programme in the global oil industry.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

LINK

Petrobras to start Tupi pilot oil output in Oct.

RIO DE JANEIRO, March 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA) (PBR.N) said on Tuesday it would move up the start of a pilot production run at its 5-8 billion barrel Tupi subsalt field to October, from December originally.

Exploration and Production Director Guilherme Estrella said the pilot plan will pump 100,000 barrels of oil per day. It is currently producing 18,000 bpd in a long-term test production run.

The company also said it would start drilling into the subsalt layer in the southern part of the Santos basin in May, Estrella said. Until now, most of the massive subsalt discoveries have occurred further north in the Santos.

LINK

Petrobras says new Tupi well highly productive
* Fourth well in Tupi area shows strong flow rates
* Offshore well could produce 30,000 bpd

RIO DE JANEIRO, March 23 (Reuters) - A new well in Brazil's massive offshore Tupi area has shown high flow rates and could produce up to 30,000 barrels per day (bpd), state-run oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA)(PBR.N) said on Tuesday.

Petrobras said the 3-RJS-662A well, the fourth drilled in the Tupi area that is believed to hold 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of oil, had initial flow rates of 5,000 barrels per day.

"The potential production of this well was estimated at close to 30,000 barrels per day, showing the high productive capacity in the Tupi area that has been demonstrated by other wells tested in the region," the company said in a statement.

The well is in the BM-S-11 concession block and was drilled 265 kilometers (165 miles) from Rio de Janeiro at a depth of 2,115 meters (6,940 feet).

[TheDude]

Ace pointed out that these huge production additions were showing negligible gains for output, owing to big declines in their heritage offshore fields...

Ace also told us almost a year ago that world C&C production would be roughly 71 million bpd by last November, when in reality it turned out to be over 73 million bpd. I hope no one is taking Ace too seriously.

Irrelevant. I first took notice of this when Ace pointed it out, check the numbers yourself, if you're capable of doing so that is, which doesn't seem to be the case. 2006-2009 Brazil brought online 2990 kb/d of new projects yet their production for those 1st three years only increased 396.16 kb/d. I don't have the time to figure out what the 2009 average is to date but it didn't suddenly jump 2500+.



The Oil Drum: Europe | The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates

[TheDude]

Not my work, Euan Mearnes swiped it from the WEO 2008, which the TOD staff bought a copy of. Thanks anyway. The answer is in the numbers for all to see, few seem to show an interest though.

[TheAntiDoomer]

New Well Sweetens Tupi's Oil Potential
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=90725

Petrobras completed the drilling of another well in the Tupi area, confirming the potential of the pre-salt reservoirs of the field. Drilled by the West Taurus semisub, the 3-BRSA-795-RJS well, known as Tupi OW, reinforced Tupi holds an estimated 5 to 8 billion barrels of recoverable light oil and natural gas. The discovery was proven when light oil samplings were collected via a cable test from reservoirs located at depths greater than those of previously drilled wells. Located in the Tupi Evaluation Plan, the Tupi OW well lies roughly 8 miles (12.5 kilometers) north of the discovery well. Tupi is situated in Block BM-S-11 in the Santos Basin, 155 miles (250 kilometers) from the southern coast of Rio de Janeiro.

[TheDude]

Just got the JODI consumption numbers back to 2002 - they're a terror to compile. Brazil's consumption for 2009 contracted a whopping 1 bbl/day. Applying this to the EIA numbers for YOY diffs we get:

Code: Select all

              2005    2006    2007    2008    2009
Liquids      198.64   128.56 110.32   157.29   136.61
C+C          156.21   89.16   25.26   64.16   137.96
Cons          83.42   48.78   145     120      -1

So consumption is flat and liquids production gains decline? C+C increasing makes more sense, they must have slacked off on ethanol production - 20% of Brazil output is "Other liquids."

[copious.abundance]

This "news" contributes little to the peak-oil debate. Tupi remains, by pre-peak historical standards, a relatively small field (good for a 3-months of consumption) and just as difficult and expensive to complete.

Except that Tupi isn't the only game in town down there.

From my catalog, here's the list of Brazilian discoveries since December 2005.

Brazil Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Papa-Terra - 700 million - 1 billion barrels - 12/05
Xerelete - 1.4 billion barrels - 7/07
Tupi - 5-8 billion barrels - 11/07
Golfinho - 150 million barrels - 7/08
Iara - 3-4 billion barrels - 10/08
Additions to Jubarte - 1.9 billion barrels - 10/08
Tiro - 150 million barrels - 10/08
Sub-salt layers of Baleia Franca, Baleia Azul, and Jubarte - 1.5-2 billion barrels - 11/08
Aruana - 280 million barrels - 8/09
Guara - 1.1-2 billion barrels - 09/09
Vesuvio - 500 million - 1.5 billion barrels - 10/09
Caricoa - 681 million barrels - 11/09
Well OGX-2A - 400-500 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Marimba - 25 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Well OGX-2A - 600 million-1.5 billion barrels - 12/09
Well OGX-4-RUS - 100-200 million barrels - 02/10
Well 1-OGX-3-RJS - 500-900 million barrels - 02/10
Well 4-PM-53 - 25 million barrels - 02/10
Additions to Barracuda - 65 million barrels - 2/10
Maastrichtian section of Well OGX-5 - 30-90 million barrels - 2/10
Piranema - 15 million barrels - 3/10
Wahoo - 300 million barrels - 4/10
Franco - 4.5 billion barrels - 5/10
Pipeline and Etna (well OGX-6) - 1.4-2.6 billion barrels - 5/10
Waimea and Fuji (wells OGX-2 and OGX-8) - 600 million-1.1 billion barrels - 5/10

That's 24.921 to 34.881 billion barrels. Not bad for 4-1/2 years' work.

And there's more yet to come.

>>> LINK <<<

Friday May 14, 2010
Bloomberg
Brazil May Top Second Biggest Pre-Salt Find at Well
May 14, 2010, 3:29 PM EDT
By Peter Millard

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- A second oil well Brazil is drilling as part of a plan to swap reserves for stock in state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA may hold more than the 4.5 billion-barrel estimate of the recent Franco discovery, an official said.

The new prospect, named Libra, may be larger than Franco based on seismic data obtained from the well, Magda Chambriard, a director of oil regulator ANP, told reporters today in Rio de Janeiro. Franco is Brazil’s largest discovery since the 8- billion barrel Tupi find in the offshore Santos Basin in 2007.

“This opens a new exploration opportunity in Santos,” Chambriard said. “With the data we have, it may be bigger than Franco.”

[...]

[ian807]

So if all this was actually extracted, processed and delivered, it puts off oil depletion by 425 days, more or less.

Well, that's not great news, but it's better than nothing.

[shortonsense]

So if all this was actually extracted, processed and delivered, it puts off oil depletion by 425 days, more or less.

Well, that's not great news, but it's better than nothing.

A listed discovery cannot be converted to a number of days that put off "depletion". Depletion started in 1859, so it certainly can't be "put off" by any discovery today.