[kevincarter]

Does anyone know what official procedures are to be expected when a country peaks? For example in the 70’s, what was the official procedure followed by the people in charge? I guess the energy department found out that the US had peaked (how?) and then some CEO or some minister or somebody informed the press or the press just found out. Did it happen like that? What I’m trying to find out is the chain of events that follow the peak. For example:

Physical peak occurs > Department of energy or the government finds out > News leak to the press > Prices go up like a rocket.

And besides what happened in the past, how do you estimate it will be with the Saudis? I know some people are saying that physical peak has already happened and it could be that the Saudis just hide it until some westerner confirms the peak. I know it’s tricky but can anyone help to sketch expected official the chain of events when they peak?

[pup55]

There is no "official procedure". That's because the peak phenomenon is only known a few years after the fact.

When the US peaked, in the early 70's, in retrospect, it was signalled by the Texas Railroad Commission in their famous statement removing all production quotas. However, the significance of this was sort of overlooked at the time.

Normally what happens is that there are a couple of years of declining production, then the government puts "decline" into their forecasts, in kind of an offhand manner. So the big revalation, if there is one, comes when the government finally admits that they are no longer forecasting increased production every year. I think in the case of Norway, this happened a couple of years ago, and more or less nothing happened because at the time, there was plenty of oil around. If you read their public statements, they are still not too worried about it.

The next country to watch for is Mexico. there have already been statements by Pemex that Cantarell, their big gulf oilfield, is in decline. The last forecast I saw for Mexico said they were still increasing, as a nation, though. When they start to forecast declines every year, there will probably be an announcement.

As for OPEC, the saudis and Kuwaitis and most of the others are still forecasting increasing production every year, and they are still nominally sticking to production quotas. When they remove the quotas, which in essence they did last summer during the brief panic, this will be a sign. In fact, you can make the argument that once OPEC peaks, there will be no compelling reason for its existence, because at that point, each of the individual countries will have the power to control the market by restricting production.

Mr. Taskforce_unity has a good database on different countries which includes a lot of "official forecasts".

As for this issue of mass market panic when some nation announces that they have peaked, I think not, unless, per the above, Opec disbands.

Another way to look at this issue is to review the annual reports and other statements of each of the big oil companies: When the point comes that they are openly stating declining production, and telling their shareholders to expect more of the same in the future, you can be pretty sure that this will cause a lot of stress in the market.

If you want to go through and review the annual reports of the big oil companies, you can see where they fall on all of this: Exxon, BP, Total and ENI are still increasing, and Chevron and Shell are in decline. A lot of this is masked by all of the mergers, buyouts, buying reserves instead of finding them, etc. that we see all the time, but at some point all of this will settle down and some good information will come out of the annual reports.

So, if you are looking for some news item on CNN that says that the global peak has been passed, you are not going to get it. If you want a metaphor, what you are instead going to see is more like the famous show "wheel of fortune" where vanna turns over one letter at a time until it spells out "global peak in petroleum production". As in the game, different people are going to realize what the message is at different times and react accordingly. Also as in the game, you will be really surprised at how stupid some people will be right up until the very end.

[Daculling]

I search the intarwebs and only came up with this...

A recently declassified CIA document casts new light on some of the most significant geopolitical events of the past quarter century. This document, an Intelligence Memorandum titled "The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis (ER 77-10147)," was issued in March 1977 by the Office of Economic Research and classified "Secret" until its public release in January 2001 in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. (1) Until now the document has prompted little discussion.

Smoking Gun: The CIA's Interest in Peak Oil


Not the whole answer your looking for but it seems the CIA was studying PO in the late 70's secretly and the phenomena was leveraged the collapse the Soviet Union later. Maybe someone older can comment if their was any public connection between the US peaking and the economic problems at the time.

[aahala]

I think I have the skinny on the US response.

When world peak oil hits, a FEMA employee will use the emergency
broadcast system to notify TV viewers. It will probably occur about
four years after the actual peak.

You will be instructed to do the following:

Go to your basement to find the duct tape and plastic wrap the present
head of FEMA told you three years ago you needed to defend the family
against a terrorist attack. Take the material to the bedroom of your home,
bend over and kiss your ass goodby.

[Dreamtwister]

You will be instructed to do the following:

Go to your basement to find the duct tape and plastic wrap the present
head of FEMA told you three years ago you needed to defend the family
against a terrorist attack. Take the material to the bedroom of your home,
bend over and kiss your ass goodby.

Actually, it will probably be more like:

"For your protection, please proceed to your nearest emergency shelter. Bring only what you can carry. In order to prevent looting, food and medicine will be dispensed at the shelter by FEMA personel. Please cooperate with the authorities, they are interested only in your safety."

There's only 2 things you can do with a population who's unemployed, hungry and desperate: Draft 'em or gas 'em.

[Kickinthegob]

I can't see any "official procedures" taking place.

Then again, there could be one day when the price of oil goes up up and away due to some geopolitical event, then we can look forward to rationing, economic meltdown and general chaos.

I am in the camp that believes governments and those in power will struggle to remain in control while the system slowly deteriorates as opposed to the "draft 'em or gas 'em" theory. The whole system needs cheap energy to function so it's not like the plug is getting pulled, more like some brownouts, some blackouts and who knows what else but it sure won't be pretty. I am thinking we have about another 10 or 20 years left of a civil society in North America before things really get hairy. Of course I can think of a few potential events that might turn that 10 or 20 years into a date with chaos tomorrow, and if that happens the last place I am going to be is in front of a TV waiting for FEMA to tell me what to do

In fact, I got rid of the TV this year and feel better already!

[Mower]

I am thinking we have about another 10 or 20 years left of a civil society in North America before things really get hairy.

You're too optimistic. I give it less than 3 years judging by oil prices alone. Under your scenario we would have some time to fix this shit.