[joelcolorado]

We do not have an oil shortage but an overuse of the resource. This is to be compared with the perceived shortage of water in the Colorado River Basin which supplies Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and California with water. Lake Powell and others are at historic lows due to over use of the available water. But, if you take out the THOUSANDS of golf courses that are watered in desert climates, there is plenty of water for human consumption, agriculture and industry. Its all in what you WANT to do.

Now, I dont care if ppl golf or boat or whatever, but dont say there is a shortage when there is so much waste.

The same is true of oil. If everyone drove a car with 30 mpg mileage, I bet there would be plenty of oil. Delivery and contractor type businesses will always need larger trucks for sure. But railroads are a much better use of fuel for delivery. Will take complete restructuring of the rail system and a WANT to change.

BUT, everyone thinks its their RIGHT to buy an SUV. In Dallas and other southern cities, look at the moms driving those 4x4 SUV's and you can see the problem. WHO needs to off road there? If you cannot get along in a Malibu type car, you are spoiled beyond your wildest dreams.

This generation wants NOW what it took their parents 30 years to get hence the mortgage crisis as ppl wanted the big house, big payments, big taxes and big utilities. The average house is 4000 sq ft. now where it used to be 1800. NO WONDER we are out of fuel. Its not unlimited. BUT if you can afford it then let the market prevail I guess. THe answer is there, its just NOT what ppl want to hear. They want what THEY want and wont give up anything to help out.
jk

[dsula]

But, if you take out the THOUSANDS of golf courses that are watered in desert climates, there is plenty of water for human consumption, agriculture and industry. Its all in what you WANT to do.

As long as you have growth you will hit the ceiling sooner or later. Not having golf courses will buy you some time, that's all. We have to stop growth, nothing else matters. Either we do it or good old mother nature will do it for us (and I don't think the way she does it will be easy on us)

[joelcolorado]

Heres the numbers. I worked for the govt on water rights so I do know.

One pivot on a quarter section of land, 160 acres, can use 90 million gallons a year. There are a million of these in the central plains using that much water EACH. 90 million gallons will supply most towns with enough water for a year.

One golf course covering 300 acres will consume TWICE that amount. So you see, if you eliminate those, there is a ton of water left over. The water is renewable but the models that were used to predict and divide up that water were based on 1940's lifestyles without private swimming pools and golf courses. There are hundreds of golf courses in some TOWNS in the desert west where green grass was NEVER meant to grow. GOOD LORD> Its so plain. BUT, god forbid we give up something WE want. Just grab more from someone else.

The town I live in banned outdoor watering last year yet watered the soccer and football fields day after day. Its whose ox is being gored. ANd the golf course kept watering because, good god, you dont want the grass to die DO YOU>>?

[DantesPeak]

There is no oil shortage, mainly because the relatively open world markets balance supply/demand changes by price changes.

Many nations however highly regulate oil product prices, such as for gasoline and diesel. Because of this, product prices are not affected by demand, and some shortages of diesel have resulted in a number of countries. China is increasing its diesel imports tremendously to meet priced controlled demand.

[joelcolorado]

Guess I need to finish my thots.
Anyway, just like with the water use, oil use is wasted. Too many big cars, SUV's and other things. We want it all and want it NOW.

This is easy to fix if we all just drive smaller cars and use half as much fuel. Live in smaller homes which take less heat and cooling, take one less trip a year, walk some instead of driving and other cost savings things.

With cars making 35 mpg, we would have plenty of gas. Twice as much as now. Cars make the same mpg a the first cars. Whats with that.

I would bet that this time, is the last. PPL will get rid of the big SUV's and not go back like they did in the 80's

[BigTex]

Guess I need to finish my thots.
Anyway, just like with the water use, oil use is wasted. Too many big cars, SUV's and other things. We want it all and want it NOW.
This is easy to fix if we all just drive smaller cars and use half as much fuel. Live in smaller homes which take less heat and cooling, take one less trip a year, walk some instead of driving and other cost savings things.
With cars making 35 mpg, we would have plenty of gas. Twice as much as now. Cars make the same mpg a the first cars. Whats with that.
I would bet that this time, is the last. PPL will get rid of the big SUV's and not go back like they did in the 80's

Study Jevon's Paradox and see how this affects your thinking.

Also, evaluate the following statement:

"We have plenty of oxygen, there is no shortage. What we have is too many people breathing."

[joelcolorado]

Funny reply to your last post. I scuba dive and have learned to breathe real shallow to make a tank last twice as long.

Same for oil, the less you use the longer it will last. NO ONE wants to conserve and I dont understand that at all.

With solar, wind, water, ethanol, and oil, there is enough, but only to those who are prudent. Nothing is unlimited as you have stated.

[vision-master]

With cars making 35 mpg, we would have plenty of gas. Twice as much as now. Cars make the same mpg a the first cars. Whats with that

How about when gas climbs to $6 or $7 gal by next year?

OR when it climbs to $12 to $15 gal?

35 mpg ain't gonna help.

[joelcolorado]

IF we used half as much, it would cost less as the saudis are also on a binge with money and need it more and more to keep the terrorist as bay.

35 mpg at $10 is doable. at 10mpg its not. I can survive at that rate and so can everyone else with conservation. But the economy will tank for sure.

Eating out at 40% less already. So its starting. Non essential things will disappear with the jobs associated with it.

[BigTex]

Funny reply to your last post. I scuba dive and have learned to breathe real shallow to make a tank last twice as long.

What do you do at the end of the tank, even with your shallow breathing? I assume you return to the surface. What if there was no surface to return to?

This point nibbles around on the "overshoot" idea, which I recommend you read up on. It's interesting stuff, whether you agree or disagree.

Same for oil, the less you use the longer it will last.

But what is the purpose of this relatively small amount of extra time you are buying with reduced use (perhaps one generation)? In the past, we have not used extra time wisely at all. In fact, following the 1970s wake-up call, we promptly went back to sleep for 25 years.

NO ONE wants to conserve and I dont understand that at all.

Because we have a culture premised upon growth and consumption, not sustainability and conservation.

With solar, wind, water, ethanol, and oil, there is enough, but only to those who are prudent.

No, there is not enough. That is the problem. In a world of finite resources attempting to accomodate creatures with unlimited desires and an irrational belief in perpetual exponential economic growth, there will never be "enough."

And by the way, look into ethanol a little more. Ethanol from corn is one of the worst ideas we've come up with in quite a while.

Nothing is unlimited as you have stated.

There is one thing that is unlimited, and that is human desire. That is the problem and those are the blinders that many of us wear.

One way of thinking about fossil fuels is like a credit card that was issued to humanity about 200 years ago and which supposedly had no limit and never had to be paid back. What many here believe is that the credit card does have a limit and that it will require repayment in unexpected ways, and we are not even close to being able to make even the first payment.

[Rage]

The major issue as I see it is converting our financial system, our government and food production systems from a growth based model to something sustainable - especially without reducing the population. That's not to say that I think there will be a classical "die-off" - even with no changes people are going to start to die at an increased rate over the next two or three decades (in the West anyway). What I'm concerned about is the method that we choose to introduce these new systems. I agree with you JC that it is possible to get by with less and keep almost everybody happy but I don't see how we can transistion to that system and manipulate peoples expectations into excepting it without significant upheaval.

[joelcolorado]

I know. If the govt said everyone drives THIS car. I would go for it. I dont care. Would try and help out. But to move ppl to that point will take something huge as we see now. Still hanging on to big cars and trucks and houses.

No one thinks this is the end as there have been too many false alarms in the past. Hope for the best I guess or denial.

We could use half of what we use now and still have growth, just would take sacrifice in our routines. SO WHAT. Better than a crash but I fear no one sees it that way.

eat drink and be merry etc.

[BigTex]

The major issue as I see it is converting our financial system, our government and food production systems from a growth based model to something sustainable - especially without reducing the population. That's not to say that I think there will be a classical "die-off"- even with no changes people are going to start to die at an increased rate over the next two or three decades (in the West anyway). What I'm concerned about is the method that we choose to introduce these new systems. I agree with you JC that it is possible to get by with less and keep almost everybody happy but I don't see how we can transistion to that system and manipulate peoples expectations into excepting it without significant upheaval.

There will be no orderly "powerdown" or any other type of voluntary reductions in consumption for the purpose of creating a state of sustainability so long as "quantity-minded" thinking is the dominant form, as opposed to "quality-minded" thinking.

Ralph Borsodi discussed the differences between the "Quality-Minded Man" and the "Quantity-Minded Man" in "This Ugly Civilization" and his ideas are very interesting to read.

The difference between the two ways of thinking focus on the value that is placed on ideas as opposed to things.

A tube of paint is a nice example of how the two ways of thinking work.

The quality minded person sees in the tube of paint the potential to express ideas in ways that can be shared with others and potentially deepen the human understanding of reality and his own nature.

The quantity minded person sees in the tube of paint a thing of "X" value and begins to plan for how he might obtain more tubes of paint at the best price for the purpose of selling them at a higher price in the most efficient manner. The notion that there may be the potential for the creative expression of valuable ideas in each tube of paint is simply not part of the thought process at all.

The gradual takeover of culture, politics, and other institutions by quantity minded people has created the place where we are today--i.e., we think in terms of consumption and acquisition, frequently of useless things, and then are surprised when this process leaves us exhausted, empty and alienated.

Where production and growth are the ideals, quality-minded people do not have the power or authority to act as a check on the activities of quantity-minded people.

Sustainability and powerdown are quality-minded ideas. They will find an unfriendly audience in a quantity-minded world.

It's a big problem.

[Byron100]

A big problem indeed. The way of thinking you have just described, BigTex, really does underscore the scope of the problem.

If I was part of an alien "rescue crew" coming to save humans from their own destruction, I wouldn't go around plopping down plants that produce unlimited energy in all forms...that would just enable us to keep consuming and reproducing until there wasn't enough room to move. What I would do instead is engineer a virus that would strip out the basic instinct of desire in all humans...to make people not want things, instead of wanting to have more, bigger, better. That is the crucial evolutionary "mistake" of the human race, and we're about to pay a very, very high price for it.

Perhaps the coming collapse of this civilization will "evolve" us lowly humans to a higher plane of existence, in which we no longer have the needless wants and desires we have now.

[vision-master]

I know. If the govt said everyone drives THIS car. I would go for it. I dont care. Would try and help out. But to move ppl to that point will take something huge as we see now. Still hanging on to big cars and trucks and houses.
No one thinks this is the end as there have been too many false alarms in the past. Hope for the best I guess or denial.
We could use half of what we use now and still have growth, just would take sacrifice in our routines. SO WHAT. Better than a crash but I fear no one sees it that way.
eat drink and be merry etc.

I just got back from coffee with a couple friends. I've been beating the PO drum to them for a couple years. So!

Guess what one of em just bought!

2008 F350 4 door extended cab.

[Byron100]

Guess what one of em just bought!
2008 F350 4 door extended cab. Razz

Oh boy, we are SO doomed.

That really takes the cake, it really does...LOL.

[joelcolorado]

HOW can anyone in their right mind buy that? oh...sorry, qualified my question didnt I?

You have to be totally nuts. Or rich beyond belief. All the people who tried to get me to buy an SUV are whining now. Idont feel a bit sorry for them. It takes money to play this game. They sure liked the high life back when they got them and were sitting there in their leather seats, 4 televisions, etc.

I chose a small car, kept my 1997 pickup that i drive maybe 20 miles a week or less for grass clipplings and limb hauling, and can survive $10 gas I suppose.

Of course, my wife and I have good recession proof jobs to an extent. Even in the depression ppl in our careers had jobs due to the need for certain goods and services never goes away til everyone is dead. hah..

But, sad day. Lots of my shortsighted friends are suffering for sure. Just cant help them now. In too deep.
Big cars
Big boats
Big houses
BIG DEBT
Big taxes
Big utilities
BIG mistake

[FiniteQuantity]

I just got back from coffee with a couple friends. I've been beating the PO drum to them for a couple years. So!
Guess what one of em just bought!
2008 F350 4 door extended cab.

Even without any Peak Oil discussion it's a surprising purchase given the trend in gas prices. Heck, even CERA subscribers are now being told about $150 to $200 oil.

[k_semler]

THOUSANDS of golf courses...

...are a waste of a perfectly good shooting range.

[criticalmass]

"Overshoot" is exactly what we need to worry about. A consumer driven market system (in a perfect situation which admittedly we are not) can push demand past supply so far, so fast that at times the recovery is very long and difficult. When this happens, supply is either adjusted to match demand, which typically falls simultaneously as substitues also begin to "hold water."

The problem with oil is that it powers 90% of our total energy needs/demand. Massive supply adjustments CANNOT BE MADE to mitigate the shortage that will happen and we're technologically unable and unwilling to change lifestyles that drive this demand and develop perfect substitutes. This is troubling because the overshoot which is likely just starting to happen now has giant potential to be incredibly severe. Thus, there's not one real economist out there that can confidently say "the market will adjust and take care of itself." This type of demand in economics is referred to as "perfectly inelastic" because regardless of price, deand is left unaltered.
This is my concern, dude. -couldn't resist a Big Lebowski quote there