[Subjectivist]

Peak oil is not about the complete loss of fossil fuels. We will have oil and its derivatives for many years to come. It's about the cost of cheap abundant energy.

Also, peak oil is a threat, but it's just one of many right now that are converging as overpopulation stresses earth's natural resources and the environment.

The one thing about oil is that we have alternatives. Not replacements, but energy we can use in combination with the old sources to get us to a new level of sustainability.

I believe picking any single threat is an incomplete scenario as to how industrial civilization will collapse. Usually, societies fold with a series of body blows.

So you don't think it will be one factor causing the problems but a set of factors? Okay so what are your top five threats to modern civilization?

[dolanbaker]

Well, I didn't vote for a pandemic, but this will not collapse the industrial civilization economy, but it is knocking it sideways.
Once the COVID pandemic is out of the way, I strongly suspect that governments will look back at the figures, cases/deaths verses the economic fallout caused by the lockdowns and most likely decide that next time around that they'll simply fund the health services better to avoid them from being overwhelmed. The last thing they want is a repeat of the global instability caused by what is in reality a slightly more virulent version of flu, the vast majority of deaths were people who would have been killed by a severe dose of flu!

Remember when the Icelandic volcano erupted in 2011 and they shut down the entire Northern European airspace for months due to the ash in the air, when there was a similar eruption from another volcano the following year, they simply imposed a no fly zone close to it.

[JuanP]

Dolan, remember that every crisis is an opportunity to get ahead for some. Thanks to the measures taken to fight COVID-19 the rich have more money now than ever before. I believe they Took all these measures on purpose knowing perfectly well what the consequences would be for the poor and disenfranchised. And what if 135 million people die; that means shit to the narcissistic sociopaths and psychopaths that rule the world.

[Newfie]

Peak oil is not about the complete loss of fossil fuels. We will have oil and its derivatives for many years to come. It's about the cost of cheap abundant energy.

Also, peak oil is a threat, but it's just one of many right now that are converging as overpopulation stresses earth's natural resources and the environment.

The one thing about oil is that we have alternatives. Not replacements, but energy we can use in combination with the old sources to get us to a new level of sustainability.

I believe picking any single threat is an incomplete scenario as to how industrial civilization will collapse. Usually, societies fold with a series of body blows.

So you don't think it will be one factor causing the problems but a set of factors? Okay so what are your top five threats to modern civilization?

I am not Lore, but I carry that list around in my head. N no particular order.

1 Global economic system fragility/collapse
2 Drug resistant diseases; infections, parasites, virus’, whatever
3 Resource depletion: oil, water, soil, etc.
4 Climate change
5 Over population

But I think it could be equally valid to review this topic along other lines.
1 Human inability to deal with future events, too focused on the gery short term
2 Tribalism
3 Greed
4 General reactivity to stimulus as opposed to critical thinking (sort of 1 rewritten)

My second list is less developed.

[Newfie]

This resurgence of this topic is timely.

We have recently heard about The Great Reset being pushed by the WEF and their lackeys. To my ear they are reacting to a threat to the global financial system. It is heard to know what they truly envision because their “proposals” are so vague. It is clear that they are seeking some kind of monetary realignment, a great strengthening of the global financial system.

My suspicion is that they some kind of single world monetary unit. But they also want great control of how that “money” is distributed.

My spidey sense says that nothing good will come from this. It has the aroma of a Chinese style central government operation.

IMHO the central bankers are concerned that a global financial crisis is looming and they want to he positioned to take advantage of that crisis to effect their plans.

[Outcast_Searcher]

1 Global economic system fragility/collapse
2 Drug resistant diseases; infections, parasites, virus’, whatever
3 Resource depletion: oil, water, soil, etc.
4 Climate change
5 Over population

That's a good list. I would argue that in reality, it's ALL down to number 5 as a root cause for the whole list, as over time, our finite planet / resources is having to support more and more billions of people. We're managing that with hiccups SO FAR with better technology, conservation, accumulated knowledge, etc. But failure to reasonably manage number 5 at some point WILL break the system, barring the fantasy of spreading people out to the stars faster than the net population grows as a solution.

[aadbrd]

Ever seen the movie Children of Men? My takeaway from that is that civilization is built upon the foundation of a social contract. When society rejects the social contract, everything falls apart. And there can be lots of reasons why that rejection takes place.

I think the current political polarization and the inkblot way the public are perceiving the election are part of the above phenomenon. I guess I'm talking more about the failure of the state rather than industrial civilization itself, I suppose, but the US seems like a tinderbox lately. These problems alarm me more than peak oil or climate change.

[Newfie]

aadbrd,

Welcome aboard

[Plantagenet]

Ever seen the movie Children of Men? My takeaway from that is that civilization is built upon the foundation of a social contract. When society rejects the social contract, everything falls apart. And there can be lots of reasons why that rejection takes place.

I think the current political polarization and the inkblot way the public are perceiving the election are part of the above phenomenon. I guess I'm talking more about the failure of the state rather than industrial civilization itself, I suppose, but the US seems like a tinderbox lately. These problems alarm me more than peak oil or climate change.

I'm not too worried about the US being a tinderbox.

Joe Biden ran on the promise that he would heal the country's political divisions and end the partisanship and bring us all together.

That sounds good to me. AND I'm more and more hopeful Joe will actually do what he promised.

Certainly the press already seems all pacified. They were ready to eat Trump alive but now the press is totally supportive and friendly towards Biden. Its like magic.

Just having the press stop all their attacks will do a lot to lower the temperature and end the divisions in our country.

Cheers!

PS: Welcome aadbrd. Please feel free to share your opinions here.

[mmasters]

Joe Biden ran on the promise that he would heal the country's political divisions and end the partisanship and bring us all together.

That sounds good to me. AND I'm more and more hopeful Joe will actually do what he promised.

Certainly the press already seems all pacified. They were ready to eat Trump alive but now the press is totally supportive and friendly towards Biden. Its like magic.

Just having the press stop all their attacks will do a lot to lower the temperature and end the divisions in our country.

Cheers!

PS: Welcome aadbrd. Please feel free to share your opinions here.

Careful being seduced with those hugs...he may have you in the right position for some unexpected stuff from behind!

[vtsnowedin]

I also would flip Newfie's list and place over population as first which directly leads to the others. We can adjust or overhaul the economic system as needed but controlling population and the demands that population place on resources and the environment is a much more difficult,even impossible, task.

[vtsnowedin]

That's odd. I tried twice to edit that post to add a missing "difficult" but when I submit it the board says it is successful but no change showed up?
And now it is there. Things running a little slow I guess.

[JuanP]

I think the Russians may be hacking PO. Or is it the Chinese? That would be an immediate threat that could bring a total collapse to my online social life, since this is the only social media website I use.

[Ibon]

I also would flip Newfie's list and place over population as first which directly leads to the others. We can adjust or overhaul the economic system as needed but controlling population and the demands that population place on resources and the environment is a much more difficult,even impossible, task.

Come on admit it,,... that is why you were so in favor of just letting the virus rip through society early on.

Read my tagline.

[vtsnowedin]

I much prefer education and access to birth control for young women then pandemics and war.

[Ibon]

I much prefer education and access to birth control for young women then pandemics and war.

We all do. But the value of each individual life when there are already 8 billion is inherently less than when the population is within carrying capacity.

[Plantagenet]

1 Global economic system fragility/collapse
2 Drug resistant diseases; infections, parasites, virus’, whatever
3 Resource depletion: oil, water, soil, etc.
4 Climate change
5 Over population

I don't think its a matter of selecting which is most likely to cause collapse......

The die is already cast.

We already know what is going to happen.

Climate Change is unstoppable now. Every year we add more CO2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and every year the planet gets hotter and every year that puts more stress on civilization. And eventually civilization is going to crack and break and collapse.

Just picture sea level rise causing the abandonment of parts of major coastal cities around the world.

Just picture agricultural production collapsing around the world as climate zones shift and formerly productive agricultural regions become not so productive.

Just picture millions of refugees fleeing coastal areas that are flooding, fleeing forested areas that burn up around them, fleeing agricultural areas that become dustbowls, fleeing hot climates that become uninhabitable climates.

And bit by bit, civilization will evaporate and melt and burn and flood and collapse.

Cheers!

[Newfie]

According to Limits to Growth we don't get ONE of them, we get ALL of them. The whole system comes down.

Very roughly speaking:
World Population is 9 billion
Humans foot print is using 3 Earths equivalent, diverting 100% of a available resources to humans.
Just bringing us down to 100% consumption, leaving nothing for any other species is achieved by reducing human population to 3 billion.
But that is not sustainable because it still destroys all other ecosystems.

E. O. Wilson says we need to leave half of Earths resources to natural processes. That means dividing the 3 billion by half to get to 1-1/2 billion max number of souls for sustainability.

But that also means those souls will have the approximate income if a Guatemalan.

Simple and cruse analysis, but provides a fair if rough target for population. Provided we do not do any further damage to the environment or set iff run away global warming.

[Subjectivist]

I much prefer education and access to birth control for young women then pandemics and war.

You preferthis outcomes because you are a decent human being. Sadly it seems half or more of the population would prefer ignorance and force.

[Tanada]

IMO the #1 issue will be lack of access to cheap carbon free or at least very low carbon energy at an affordable price bracket. With cheap energy you can do a heck of a lot of education and things that offset human ecosystem impacts, but if your cheap energy comes from fossil fuels you cause climate to shift in ways we can only predict in the very broadest sense of the word. Timing, rate and extent are educated guesses when it comes to climate change.