[AdamB]

Adam haz Conspiracy

Conspiracy presumes some level of importance. Short's sock puppets have none, other than as proof of how desperate he is for even faux support.

There are now protests all around the world...and no one has a clue what's going on.

Understanding the cascading effects of pandemic aren't that difficult.

The Etp Model isn't perfect...it's just the best model out there.

Sure...and the price of oil is now $0/bbl, just like it predicted. Oops!

[Outcast_Searcher]

The Etp Model isn't perfect...it's just the best model out there.

Yeah, just like the economic theories of the constantly wrong perennial fast crash doomers are "the best model out there".

Yeah, and just like for flat earthers, the flat model is "the best model out there".

Being ignorant, and consistently resistant to learning ANYTHING makes all your opinions just SO credible. At least in the mind of ETPers.

When crude oil is priced near zero because the global economy is so bad that people can't afford to buy it or produce it by the end of 2021, be SURE and get back to use and regale us with the wisdom of the ETP's predictions.

Meanwhile in anything remotely approaching reality, WTI is over $40 in the middle of a global pandemic wreaking economic havoc (which ETP didn't predict, of course), and it's rising over time as the prognosis for things like effective tests, treatments, and vaccines improve over time -- and lo and behold, DEMAND for oil products increases as a consequence.

[Yoshua]

Adam my old friend, the Etp Model is an energy equation, it doesn't predict the oil price...but you already know that.

People started protesting before the virus...who knows...maybe they predicted a pandemic?

Shorty did mess up the Etp Model by using the dollar as measuring stock? But what else could he have used to see how it reflects to the economy?

[asg70]

the Etp Model is an energy equation, it doesn't predict the oil price

If that's the case, why did Short make his infamous bet in the first place?

[AdamB]

Adam my old friend, the Etp Model is an energy equation, it doesn't predict the oil price...but you already know that.

I am well aware of Shorts "laughed out of pre-peer review" work. I am also aware that he is scrubbing the internet of it in the hopes that what I figured out in seconds isn't figured out by you, years later.

And no, I don't believe it is an energy equation at all. We could talk about that, but now that Short has removed all reference to to the work in humiliation, it would be difficult.

Shorty did mess up the Etp Model by using the dollar as measuring stock? But what else could he have used to see how it reflects to the economy?

How what reflects to the economy? His inability to figure out correlation and causation?

[AdamB]

the Etp Model is an energy equation, it doesn't predict the oil price

If that's the case, why did Short make his infamous bet in the first place?

Good question. Another good one would be, and why did he lose it so badly, if it in fact his equation had any predictive ability?

[Yoshua]

The Etp Model stands on its own as an energy model.

To see how the Model correlates to the economy, shortonoil should have created a separate model using the price of crude oil in dollars.

The moment he uses the dollar, he is also forced to add interest rates, debt and money printing and create a very complex model.

To be fair, shortonoil has lately created debt and interest rate models that he has derived from the Etp Model.

[Yoshua]

Shortonoil should also have used the OPEC embargo in the 70's to show that the oil price can be manipulated by supply and demand shocks.

[AdamB]

The Etp Model stands on its own as an energy model.

It stands as an example of something so embarrassing that Shorty is going to great lengths to hide it. If that is what the author thinks, what makes you believe it has value? Other than you want it to of course, the faith based perspective.

To be fair, shortonoil has lately created debt and interest rate models that he has derived from the Etp Model.

Really? So the author of the Etp Model, busily hiding all evidence of its existence,losing bets trying to use it to predict things, wants to base further work on it? Sort of like...if you sprinkle cinnamon on fecal matter and advertise it as something delicious...it isn't still just fecal matter?

[AdamB]

Shortonoil should also have used the OPEC embargo in the 70's to show that the oil price can be manipulated by supply and demand shocks.

Short doesn't know any more about economics than he does basic statistical concepts. The big one being confusing correlation and causation. So are you suggesting that in between scrubbing the internet of his creation of the Etp, he is trying to learn ANYTHING about economics?

You do understand that when mistakes were pointed out to him during the Etp circus, he didn't for a second stop to learn anything, even when it was pointed out to him? His comments to Steve St. Angelo being just one example that I recall.

[asg70]

The Etp Model stands on its own as an energy model.

But even there it doesn't do a good job of that. This has been debated for YEARS, man, and I think you've been around for this and should know better. I remember years ago a lengthy debate over ROI/EROEI, for instance, where Short kept exaggerating the amount of energy input required to extract oil in certain circumstances (mostly fracking). The true experts trotted out actual data and Short just tried to gloss over it and reassert his conclusions in classic Trumpian fashion.

ETP only makes sense in the vaguest way, that as a resource becomes scarce it should become more costly to extract. But the devil's in the details and the idea that scarcity would lead to LOWER rather than HIGHER prices is pure hokum.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Adam my old friend, the Etp Model is an energy equation, it doesn't predict the oil price...but you already know that.

People started protesting before the virus...who knows...maybe they predicted a pandemic?

Shorty did mess up the Etp Model by using the dollar as measuring stock? But what else could he have used to see how it reflects to the economy?

So like you, he should just shut the hell up, as he has nothing meaningful to say.

But that, of course, would go against the need to beg for attention, even via making CONSTANTLY very wrong predictions, and THEN trying to claim they were right via various conspiracy theories, or denying reality, as though that's justification for a rational audience.

[Yoshua]

Asg70

Money wants to go were there the profits are the highest.

Energy wants to go were there the energy efficiency is highest.

So...what happens when energy production no longer is energy efficient or profitable?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Asg70

Money wants to go were there the profits are the highest.

Energy wants to go were there the energy efficiency is highest.

So...what happens when energy production no longer is energy efficient or profitable?

Intro to Micro Econ 101 at ANY college, or any decent microeconomics book tells you that. Or just understanding the concept of supply and demand.

Not that I'd EVER expect you to BEGIN to learn, no matter how many times you're basically told the same thing, month after month, year after year -- so there's that.

...

Oh, and when oil profits are actually "impossible" for a meaningful period of time (say over a year vs. a brief blip), be SURE and get back to us on that, with your case from several CREDIBLE sources. (And I won't hold my breath expecting THAT result).

[asg70]

what happens when energy production no longer is energy efficient or profitable?

That's a loaded question. ETP hasn't proven that oil production is no longer profitable.

[AdamB]

Energy wants to go were there the energy efficiency is highest.

Says who? Energy goes when the work gets done, and at the efficiency of the method by which that work is done. Find me some energy saying it prefers to be more efficient, I dare you. While I understand that Shorty just makes up thermodynamic nonsense, at least he has the good sense to hide as he scrubs the internet for the proof of that nonsense. Or ducks paying on the wagers he has lost anyway.

[Baduila]

Interestingly, the commentary section of the HG pages has contained a 2nd diagram.



This includes an estimation (blue arrows) for the years after 2018.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Interestingly, the commentary section of the HG pages has contained a 2nd diagram.

This includes an estimation (blue arrows) for the years after 2018.

I notice you show NO sourcing re a link, NO page numbers, etc. Wow. I'm SO surprised.

And this diagram has the light blue line of dots being very much like the "magenta" line in the commonly discussed ETP V2 report line from March 2015. Showing $13ish max price as of mid-year 2020, and moving to perhaps $2 by year-end. How accurate is THAT?

And this diagram has the same projected price of crude oil, increasing immensely and hitting roughly $200 at year-end 2020, and $175 in 2017 or so. And how accurate is THAT?

And how does the supposed rapid rise in crude oil from 2010 on (which most CERTAINLY doesn't reflect reality), and the supposed increasingly unaffordability of crude oil at low prices (which most CERTAINLY doesn't reflect reality -- even with COVID-19 rampant) bolster your case for the ETP MAP being some kind of support for ETP viability?

Do you have an actual point, beyond making yet another random post that supposedly, ETP is still a viable thing?

[AdamB]

Interestingly, the commentary section of the HG pages has contained a 2nd diagram.

Interesting that you can't find these on Shorty's sanitized website. And this isn't the one that claimed crude oil would already be $0/bbl. I wonder why that one isn't used any more? Oh yeah! Because it can't be, otherwise the value of this scheme would be too obvious!

[Baduila]

With new data for the years 2014-2020 the HG diagram looks this way:



Remember: The HG price projection has been set up in 2014.