[BahamasEd]

It looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

The price action of WTI shows it quite clearly that the non oil extracting part of the economy can't afford to pay a high enough price that would allow the extracting, processing and delivery of oil products to it.

It's that simple, most of the oil still in the ground will stay there unless somehow you find a way to pay $100++ per barrel. The last 12 years has shown that we can't!

The best yearly average weekly price of WTI was right around $100
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2008 thru 2013 was $88.
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2014 thru 2019 was $53.

The trend is what it is and it shows no signs of changing, the price of WTI is still hitting lower lows and lower high.

I have no idea what the future will bring but the next 3 years are going to be interesting and not in a good way.

Have fun everyone.

[asg70]

It looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

And right on schedule, the last remaining ETP nut chimes in. There is so much wrong with your simplistic reasoning that it doesn't even deserve a response. But hey, I guess there is enough infamy in being the lone holdout that logic won't deter you.

[Outcast_Searcher]

It looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

The price action of WTI shows it quite clearly that the non oil extracting part of the economy can't afford to pay a high enough price that would allow the extracting, processing and delivery of oil products to it.

It's that simple, most of the oil still in the ground will stay there unless somehow you find a way to pay $100++ per barrel. The last 12 years has shown that we can't!

The best yearly average weekly price of WTI was right around $100
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2008 thru 2013 was $88.
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2014 thru 2019 was $53.

The trend is what it is and it shows no signs of changing, the price of WTI is still hitting lower lows and lower high.

I have no idea what the future will bring but the next 3 years are going to be interesting and not in a good way.

Have fun everyone.

When we get to $2 at the end of 2021 (and $0 shortly thereafter) be SURE and get back to us. That's what ETP theory predicted re Shorty and his "paper". (I kept a copy of version 2, dated March 1, 2015, so I could refer to his various nonsensical projections).

In the REAL world, WTI is at $42 plus, and has been increasing consistently as a trend since April.

Meanwhile, Shorty's ETP projection shows WTI plunging from $26ish at the end of 2019 to $13ish at the end of 2020.

The only way you can claim ETP is "right on schedule" is cherry picking and/or lying.

I'm no more impressed by your nonsense than I am by Musk's annual claims re "Full Self Driving" for Tesla, which CLEARLY, in no way, actually exists in the REAL world.

[AdamB]

It looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

You mean, the revised ETP/MAP right? How was it modified to not create the since discredited first answers?

The price action of WTI shows it quite clearly that the non oil extracting part of the economy can't afford to pay a high enough price that would allow the extracting, processing and delivery of oil products to it.

It quite clearly shows nothing of the sort.

It's that simple, most of the oil still in the ground will stay there unless somehow you find a way to pay $100++ per barrel. The last 12 years has shown that we can't!

Sometimes, simple things are as stupid as this idea, but not in this case.

The trend is what it is and it shows no signs of changing, the price of WTI is still hitting lower lows and lower high.

The new trend is a new trend. Has no more validity than the last trend, the "gee oil should be free now" trend.

I have no idea what the future will bring but the next 3 years are going to be interesting and not in a good way.

Have fun everyone.

Oil dropping to free was fun...oh wait....when we waited for that, it turned out to be as amusing as peak oil on Thanksgiving Day 2005!

[Baduila]

This is the graph from the HG report, page 34, used for the WTI price projection. I see two sets of data points, one labeled 38 % and one labeled 29%. OS seems to have a problem with his eyes, beause he only sees one set.



About three years ago, i have put OS, Adam, and asg on my ignore list. They never posted anything from which i could learn something. Today, this is still valid.

[asg70]

This chart fetishism leads to the erosion of critical thinking skills.

Here's an experiment for you with min and max bounds on a prediction. If you set the min and max bounds wide enough then pretty much anything can happen inside. Voila! Instant credibility for your model! But what exactly is it predicting? Nothing. Until you go out on a limb and make a more specific, more linear prediction, you've got nothing.



And the reason Short lost his bet is that prices shot up outside of the (then) wide boundaries that he himself set, something ignored by Baidula.

So the bottom line is...in what way is ETP at all useful for studying oil depletion? It doesn't accurately predict oil prices--that's for sure--not even in a broad sense.

I stopped putting a lot of credence into projections like these after The Oil Drum called peak oil in 2005. The one or two ETP nuts here hearken back to Oil Drum nuts 15 years ago. They just never learned.

The other thing, which was my main beef with PStarr, is establishing cause and effect. There are multiple factors that cause oil prices to be high or low at any point in time. Doomers prefer to ignore anything other than geologic depletion, with classic peakers projecting prices going up with scarcity and ETPers inscrutably predicting them going down.

How this links to the chart fetish is they don't really think about what was going on in the world at each and every time-slice that generated that chart. Everything is explained away as just one thing. But think about what has REALLY happened over the last 10 years or so. The fracking glut (and it really has been a glut), the opening up of the spigots by OPEC to attack the glut. Financial problems in the euro zone. Then COVID. And creeping up slowly behind...the rise of EVs. ETPers or really any peakers clinging to simplistic models don't really look at the details. They are seeking to reduce everything down to an easily digestible "answer" for everything we see. While that's highly satisfying, that's not how the world works, not in the context of day to day or month to month oil pricing.

But anyway, the reason ETP has less credibility than ever is that it has no alternative but to converge the high and low boundaries as the predictive price reaches its termination point at $0. Even though oil prices are likely to be depressed for the foreseeable future thanks to COVID and the long tail of the economic fallout, oil isn't going to just be given away.

[Outcast_Searcher]

This is the graph from the HG report, page 34, used for the WTI price projection. I see two sets of data points, one labeled 38 % and one labeled 29%. OS seems to have a problem with his eyes, beause he only sees one set.

The 38% line is the one shorty was pushing in his paper. And the one the ETPers were pushing generally, until clowns like you want to come in and try to change the narrative after the fact, when the predictions failed.

But keep playing games and grasping at straws, as if that makes you credible.

[Outcast_Searcher]

About three years ago, i have put OS, Adam, and asg on my ignore list. They never posted anything from which i could learn something. Today, this is still valid.

Given the history of your posting, all you can do is post nonsense, vs. learn anything.

Congrats.

[AdamB]

About three years ago, i have put OS, Adam, and asg on my ignore list. They never posted anything from which i could learn something. Today, this is still valid.

Certainly this Adam had already figured out (in seconds) why Shorties ideas were nonsense. So sure, ignore those of us who know the difference between gibberish and...non-gibberish.

Now where is the response from Shorty to himself?

[asg70]

Is there a smoking gun that Baduila is a Short sock-puppet?

It's not unreasonable to think there are one or two ETP nuts still keeping the faith.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Is there a smoking gun that Baduila is a Short sock-puppet?

It's not unreasonable to think there are one or two ETP nuts still keeping the faith.

Especially given the "magnetic" nature of shorty's speeches (er, I mean screeds).

But yeah, a frighteningly high percentage of folks will NEVER admit they're wrong once invested into idea "X".

[AdamB]

Is there a smoking gun that Baduila is a Short sock-puppet?

It's not unreasonable to think there are one or two ETP nuts still keeping the faith.

Back in the day, about the time it was becoming obvious that Shortys work wasn't...well..up to 120 seconds of scrutiny, there was this explosion of obvious sock puppets. "It takes more energy now to convert a barrel of oil to gallons of gasoline than it did 10 years ago because I don't know squat about thermodynamics!!" claims were immediately backed up by a new user. Those were easy to spot. This one I cannot say I am positive about, but I can always run back through the archives and find out I suppose.

[asg70]

Well, whether they're sock-puppets or cultists it doesn't really matter. I mean, ETP having 0 vs. ~2 followers?

[Baduila]

@asg

In your post from monday:

First, you ignore the fact, that the line connecting the peaks of the oil price is going down since 2008.

Second, you ignore the fact, that the average oil prices are going down since 2008.

Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

Reading and commenting posts like this is a waste of time.

[REAL Green]

Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ? We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

You are attempting to mix up science with psudoscience which means there will be holes in your analysis. Thermodynamic Laws of science cannot explain the human nature of wants. Too much turbulence to the patterns involved there. I agree laws of thermodynamics is applicable to oil. It is common sense that the net energy of the final product from oil has less energetic value either from chemical composition or production complexity. Taking that obvious scientific fact to an economic fact of price does not work well. It does have an impact but not nice and clean like science should have when speaking about how scientific laws affect something.

Price is not rational these days. The diminishing returns to debt with rate suppression and liquidity injections distorts price. This means price might remain high or low for oil despite the reality of oil's energetic value. The raw human nature of price is not rational and there are no formulas to predict human nature precisely. Human wants are emotional therefore it is messy scientifically determining them. This is much like mixing up science and spirituality. One is physical and one metaphysical. Substitution makes your analysis messier with many other distortions.

[asg70]

the line connecting the peaks of the oil price is going down since 2008.
Second, you ignore the fact, that the average oil prices are going down since 2008

It's not about ignoring anything. It's about attributing cause and effect. Why is it necessary to explain this as anything other than larger trends of supply and demand? It's not like the MSM hasn't written many a piece about peak oil DEMAND over the last ten years or so. And the subtle downward trajectory isn't really that significant given the internal fluctuations. That could easily reverse course if, let's say, the Saudi's tap out, after which you, Short and the rest will probably drop-kick ETP and just re-adopt classic peak oil theory. There's no compelling reason to advocate for ETP other than to explain away a long period of low/manageable oil prices. ETP trying to explain away low oil prices is akin go epicycle theory in order to prop up earlier models of the solar-system. It's a rationalization.

net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

Congratulations for merely restating ETP's thesis. It's been debunked to death. As a resource becomes scarcer, prices go up, not down.

Reading and commenting posts like this is a waste of time.

The feeling is mutual. Learn to debate rather than simply repeat the raw thesis ad infinitum. We know you're a believer. Give others a reason to believe.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

For the umpteenth time, clownishly reporting the same nonsense and ignoring the facts doesn't make you correct.

The earth is NOT a closed system re energy. There is this really HUGE and HOT yellow thing called "the sun" that pours enormous amounts of energy into the earth all the time.

The statement of the 2nd law of thermodynamics is for an isolated (or closed) system. Wake up.

We've been getting roughly the same amount of energy from a BBL of oil for the past 50 years, And we're getting MORE efficient at production, using better science, re what we learn. And now we have lots of green energy too. (Solar and wind coming from that big yellow energy source previously mentioned, as a matter of fact).

But bray on. It's what you do. Maybe you'll manage to keep convincing yourself, even as all the ETP predictions continue to be blatantly wrong, despite your empty hand waving and meaningless distraction graphs.

[AdamB]

Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

See what I mean asg. The only one pompous enough to write this nonsense was Shorty...until the sock puppets showed up and began repeating the same nonsense.

One thing we know for sure, this sock puppet recycles the same nonsense angles that Shorty did, right down to the idiot logic. Confusing physics with price being just one hint, pretending that it is thermodynamics that stops oil production, and not what actually does.

I'm giving him a 4 out of 5 star sock puppet rating for repeating this nonsense alone.

[AdamB]

Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

For the umpteenth time, clownishly reporting the same nonsense and ignoring the facts doesn't make you correct.

Highly likely it makes him a Shorty sock puppet though. Very few people are ignorant in the same way, we all have a slightly different take on most issues. Look at Yoshua. He loves the ETP nonsense, but doesn't do the definitive "thermodynamics stamp of approval!" type crap that Baudilla does. Baduila is a parrot. Baduila uses not just the same idiot angles, with the same certainties and misunderstanding of basic thermodynamics as Short, his MISTAKEN THINKING lays out the same way. That is difficult to do by accident. Real difficult. I mean really, when you see two alleged different people laying out their logic for why 2+2 must equal 5, and it's the same logic? The same thinking? The same MISTAKEN thinking? I'm not buying.....when the number of ways someone can get things wrong borders on infinite, and two folks in a small population do it exactly the same way? The odds of them being two different people shrink to 0.

[Yoshua]

Adam haz Conspiracy

There are now protests all around the world...and no one has a clue what's going on.

The Etp Model isn't perfect...it's just the best model out there.