[Questionmark]

Yup, Mexico is dead last in reading, math, and science among OECD countries and has had ~30k deaths in the last three years related to the ongoing civil war between drug cartels and the federal government, but they're still doing great!

http://ourtimes.wordpress.com/2008/04/1 ... -rankings/

http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war

[Revi]

That's really sad, because they have an amazing techincal school in Monterrey, and lots of really smart people in Mexico. They do a lot of manufacturing. It's too bad that the country is turning into such a mess again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monterrey_ ... _Education

I love the place, but I'm not going to take a trip to Northern Mexico with the situation like it is nowadays.

[KingM]

Yup, Mexico is dead last in reading, math, and science among OECD countries and has had ~30k deaths in the last three years related to the ongoing civil war between drug cartels and the federal government, but they're still doing great!

The direction is up and has been since the 80s. That's not a collapse.

When the direction is down for a couple of years, go ahead and revive this thread.

Oh, and BTW, the murder rate in Mexico, despite a big jump in the last couple of years, is only 60% that of Brazil, a country that has been crowned one of the up and coming countries of the world.

Would you like to place a little wager on the likelihood of a collapse of Mexico? I've got a Mexican 50 Peso gold coin, weight 1.2 ounces, that I'll wager against a gold eagle or maple leaf 1 ounce coin (1.2:1 odds) that Mexico does not collapse in the year 2011.

If it doesn't collapse three and a half years after this thread began than I think it will be clear that the entire premise of this thread is bullshit and I'll continue to travel to Mexico every year for vacation.

[Questionmark]

Yup, Mexico is dead last in reading, math, and science among OECD countries and has had ~30k deaths in the last three years related to the ongoing civil war between drug cartels and the federal government, but they're still doing great!

The direction is up and has been since the 80s. That's not a collapse.

When the direction is down for a couple of years, go ahead and revive this thread.

Oh, and BTW, the murder rate in Mexico, despite a big jump in the last couple of years, is only 60% that of Brazil, a country that has been crowned one of the up and coming countries of the world.

Would you like to place a little wager on the likelihood of a collapse of Mexico? I've got a Mexican 50 Peso gold coin, weight 1.2 ounces, that I'll wager against a gold eagle or maple leaf 1 ounce coin (1.2:1 odds) that Mexico does not collapse in the year 2011.

If it doesn't collapse three and a half years after this thread began than I think it will be clear that the entire premise of this thread is bullshit and I'll continue to travel to Mexico every year for vacation.

I don't gamble, so no thanks. And Mexico has been in decline for several years now, ever since the government declared full out war against the cartels 3 years ago and since cantarel production plummeted. The government has already lost control and collapsed within certain regions and cities that the cartels have full control over, but I don't expect the rest of Mexico to collapse for many years. What I expect is escalating violence as the cartels grow more powerful and as the federal govt gets weaker, ultimately resulting in warring independent states.

And for the record, official statistics on violence in Mexico are without merit and completely untrustworthy. And they've been dropping in the education rankings for the last few years. Go back to the older data and see for yourself.

[KingM]

I don't gamble, so no thanks.

True, it wouldn't be a gamble, it would be me stealing from you based on the advantage of better information.

And Mexico has been in decline for several years now, ever since the government declared full out war against the cartels 3 years ago and since cantarel production plummeted. The government has already lost control and collapsed within certain regions and cities that the cartels have full control over, but I don't expect the rest of Mexico to collapse for many years. What I expect is escalating violence as the cartels grow more powerful and as the federal govt gets weaker, ultimately resulting in warring independent states.

With all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about. I've been to Mexico numerous times, speak fluent Spanish, and have friends living in several parts of the country. What you're describing is simply not reality. The country is doing just fine. Yes, it's poor and weak by American standards. By Mexican standards, it has never been stronger or richer or more stable in the entire two hundred years of the country's existence. The people are healthier, happier, better educated, richer, and prouder of being Mexican than ever before in their history. The country is not going anywhere.

But I understand why you might think otherwise. You could go to dicey parts of Detroit or Los Angeles or Harlem and say the US is on the verge of collapse, too. If your view is myopic and gained from a few short news clips and sensationalist articles, you might come away with that impression.

[Questionmark]

Whatever, it's clear you're in denial due to some personal attachment to Mexico. The U.S. doesn't have federal troops locked in combat within our borders, even in the worst parts of the country.

[Revi]

In a lot of ways Mexico is less likely to collapse than the US. The average person in Mexico uses far less gasoline than the average person here. They still have a lot of local food systems and they know how to take a bus.

Mexico has had problems forever. It seems to be holding up okay. I just read that some Mexican banks don't want to accept dollars for bank deposits. I guess they consider other currencies to be safer.

Pobre Mexico, tan lejos de dios, y tan cerca de los Estados Unidos.

[KingM]

Whatever, it's clear you're in denial due to some personal attachment to Mexico.

It's a personal attachment to the truth, actually. You need to gain a little historical perspective.

In the 1840s and 1850s, Mexico lost half its territory, suffered several terrible dictators, and was occupied by France. Apaches and bandits moved with impunity through the northern part of the country, sparking border wars and invasions from the US. There was a revolution in 1910 and seven decades of dictatorship followed. The government felt free to arrest and murder opponents and suffered financial crisis after financial crisis, including economic disaster in the early 80s and again in the early 90s.

And yet through all of this crap, the country never broke apart. Why now, with Mexico happier, healthier, wealthier, more educated, and more democratic than ever before in its history do you think it will break apart? That simply doesn't make sense.

[Revi]

I'm willing to admit a personal attatchment to Mexico. I lived in Guatemala for 2 years, and I have been to Mexico at least three times.

There I feel better.

[Questionmark]

Whatever, it's clear you're in denial due to some personal attachment to Mexico.

It's a personal attachment to the truth, actually. You need to gain a little historical perspective.

In the 1840s and 1850s, Mexico lost half its territory, suffered several terrible dictators, and was occupied by France. Apaches and bandits moved with impunity through the northern part of the country, sparking border wars and invasions from the US. There was a revolution in 1910 and seven decades of dictatorship followed. The government felt free to arrest and murder opponents and suffered financial crisis after financial crisis, including economic disaster in the early 80s and again in the early 90s.

And yet through all of this crap, the country never broke apart. Why now, with Mexico happier, healthier, wealthier, more educated, and more democratic than ever before in its history do you think it will break apart? That simply doesn't make sense.

Because there are several very powerful cartels that are trying to break it apart and take full control over specific regions for themselves. And as these cartels expand and take advantage of more and more profitable illegal industries other than drugs the Federal government is getting weaker as oil production declines as do remittances and tax receipts. It's a very simple equation, ever stronger cartels vs an ever weaker federal government. The Republic of Mexico probably will persist in one form or another, but it will be much smaller and much weaker than it is now and will lose land to various warlords in various parts of the country.

[KingM]

I'm willing to admit a personal attatchment to Mexico. I lived in Guatemala for 2 years, and I have been to Mexico at least three times.

There I feel better.

I've been to Guatemala a few times, too. Fascinating country. It's on a lot shakier legs than Mexico, but I don't think it's on the verge of collapse, either.

[Revi]

Guatemala had a military dictatorship when I was there. We came into the capital one time right in the middle of a coup. There were tanks parked in front of the national palace, sandbags, machine guns. The radio was announcing the new dictator and we asked someone in a store. They replied that it was just another coup.

Even through all that mess the country didn't cease to exist. Nobody in Guatemala really had any control over what was going on. That's why I don't think Mexico is going to cease to exist. It isn't turning into Somalia or something. Mexico is a big country, and has lots of places in it that are pretty mellow. The Districto Federal won't allow the drug trafficers to take over.

Now northern Mexico is a different story. They may be the defacto government in Juarez before long. If they keep trying to steal the teachers Christmas bonuses and threatening kids they are liable to lose any base of support they might have had. They aren't going to win hearts and minds, that's for sure.

[babystrangeloop]

Pemex Posts 4th-Quarter Loss on Higher Taxes and Lagging Output
Bloomberg / February 28, 2012

Pemex’s loss in the fourth quarter widened slightly to 23.8 billion pesos ($1.8 billion) from 23.6 billion pesos in the year-earlier period, the Mexico City-based company said yesterday in a filing to the Mexican stock exchange.

While Pemex tax payments rose 44 percent to 243.5 billion pesos, the Mexican export crude mix price climbed 34 percent to average $104.31 a barrel in the three months ended on Dec. 31. That’s 13 cents below its highest quarterly average reached in the second quarter of 2008. Crude output from the state-owned company fell 1 percent to 2.55 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1990.

Is Mexico safe? Violence concerns would-be visitors
by Dawn Gilbertson / Arizona Republic News / March 1, 2012

A brazen gunpoint robbery of 22 tourists in Puerto Vallarta last week and an updated U.S. government travel warning have thrust Mexico travel safety back into the spotlight and left Arizonans wondering about trips to Rocky Point.

... On Feb. 23, 22 Carnival Cruise Lines passengers on a bus tour were robbed by a gunman.

... For the first time, the State Department listed Mexican destinations for which it has not issued travel warnings to indicate that they are safe, including Cancun, Cabo San Lucas and Puerto Vallarta.

[rangerone314]

If the US gave 2 sh*ts about Mexico, we'd either legalize drugs or systematically line up a few million drug addicts and drug users against walls and chain gun them to death.

[rangerone314]

Yup, Mexico is dead last in reading, math, and science among OECD countries and has had ~30k deaths in the last three years related to the ongoing civil war between drug cartels and the federal government, but they're still doing great!

http://ourtimes.wordpress.com/2008/04/1 ... -rankings/

http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war

Maybe the US keeps drugs illegal in the US so that Mexico will be dead last among OECD countries, and not the US!

[Sixstrings]

And yet through all of this crap, the country never broke apart. Why now, with Mexico happier, healthier, wealthier, more educated, and more democratic than ever before in its history do you think it will break apart? That simply doesn't make sense.

You have a point there.

I think popular revolution is really the *only* thing that can bring about national government collapse. Absent that, living conditions just getting crappy, disorganization, that doesn't collapse a government. Because in truth a government can do nothing at all for its people other than extract wealth and fill El Presidente's Swiss bank account -- this can continue indefinitely unless and until the people unify in popular mass revolt (velvet or otherwise).

Examples.. velvet revolutions in Eastern Europe, mostly velvet revolution in Egypt, more fragmented mass popular uprising in Syria right now.

Going further back, situations like Cuba -- rebel movement grows and grows until it is more powerful than the government, but with Mexico these are just cartels not a unified political ideology. They don't want to govern, they want to sell coke.

Places in Africa.. horrible mess for pretty much ever, yet there is no collapse -- *normal* for them looks like collapse to us. Yet their governments continue, other than coups.

And finally North Korea.. utterly horrible conditions there, but the government has complete and total control so there is no mass revolt and therefore no collapse. You could go further back in history, what about Ireland in the potato famine. That was grisly stuff, yet the Crown didn't collapse.

[babystrangeloop]

An article in Bloomberg just said that the richest man in the world is now

Carlos Slim

The Mexican telecommunications tycoon has a net worth of $68.5 billion, according to Bloomberg.

[Subjectivist]

“The Committee to Protect Journalists honoured Javier Valdez Cárdenas with an International Press Freedom Award in 2011 to recognise his bravery and uncompromising journalism in the face of threats”, said CPJ Executive Director Joel Simon.

The mourning and protests followed a particularly deadly day for the media in Mexico, where warring drug cartels have made it one of the most unsafe countries to be a journalist.

Award-winning reporter Javier Valdez has been shot dead in the north-western state of Sinaloa.

The state is home to one of Mexico’s most notorious drug cartels.

The front pages of major newspapers and journalists demonstrating in the center of the capital carried pictures of Javier Valdez, 50, who was shot dead in broad daylight on Monday in northwestern Sinaloa state.

“This isn’t just us being killed as people, this is a silencing of those who talk”, freelance journalist Paula Monaco said at the protest.

A group of reporters said last weekend a large group, including children, carrying semi-automatic weapons took their equipment while they covered unrest in the state of Guerrero.

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and the U.S. ambassador to Mexico condemned Valdez’s killing.

“I asked him several times whether he was afraid”, Rafael said of his brother’s journalism career.

Guzman is now in jail awaiting trial in the United States. He reported for the Mexican newspaper La Jornada (Spanish.) He was also a valuable source for global reporters trying to piece together the debacle that is Mexico today.

At the launch of his book in 2016, Valdez had said, “Being a journalist is like being on a blacklist”.

Like Breach, Valdez dug deep into delicate matters including narco-trafficking and political corruption.

But the killing fanned a wave of anger at the authorities, with rights groups saying corrupt officials are preventing journalists’ killers from being punished.

Despite some judicial efforts, “a lack of political will to end impunity exposes Mexico as one of the most risky countries in the world for journalists”.

Valdez, who wrote a book about the dangers of covering drug cartels and the dirty politicians associated with them, knew the risks of his profession all too well.

Last Wednesday, the federal Attorney General’s Office replaced the head of its division responsible for investigating journalist killings.

http://pppfocus.com/2017/05/21/veteran- ... s-sinaloa/

[jedrider]

Whatever, it's clear you're in denial due to some personal attachment to Mexico. The U.S. doesn't have federal troops locked in combat within our borders, even in the worst parts of the country.

Seems similar to the history of the MAFIA in the U.S.A. and their pitched battles with the FBI. For similar reasons, drugs and alcohol.

[Revi]

Pobre Mexico, tan lejos de dios, y tan cerca a los Estados Unidos...