by Petrodollar » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 17:10:02
Deconstructionist,
Please note: The global community does not want the US econony to collapse. Yes, the EU wants to buy oil in euros, and we can't destoy the euro unless we attack the whole EU, that is why a multilateral compromise is desperately needed re global monetary reform and a dual-currency oil transaction system (potentally three currencies when China's RNB becomes a convertible currency). What the global community desperately wants is for us to be responsible, productive citizens and good customers, not a militant empire intent on invading other countries to control the world's oil supply.
History has shown that opposing geopolitical alliances will form when an empire begins excessive military adventurism, and the openly stated neoconservative goal of US global domination will naturally be resisted by other powerful nations. The following quote summarized the risks inherent to neoconservative doctrine:
"One of the dirty little secrets of today’s international order is that the rest of the globe could topple the United States from its hegemonic status whenever they so choose with a concerted abandonment of the dollar standard. This is America’s preeminent, inescapable Achilles Heel for now and the foreseeable future.
That such a course hasn’t been pursued to date bears more relation to the fact that other Westernized, highly developed nations haven’t any interest to undergo the great disruptions which would follow — but it could assuredly take place in the event that the consensus view coalesces of the United States as any sort of ‘rogue’ nation. In other words, if the dangers of American global hegemony are ever perceived as a greater liability than the dangers of toppling the international order. The Bush administration and the neoconservative movement has set out on a multiple-front course to ensure that this cannot take place, in brief by a graduated assertion of military hegemony atop the existent economic hegemony."
- Anonymous former US government employee
So, here's some ideas that would prop-up the dollar, b/c the world community would support these types of policies...(exerts from the book)
The US, as the most voracious energy consumer, is the only nation that could provide global leadership in pursuing the development and implementation of energy alternatives. Along with a rejection of the “preventative war” or “Bush doctrine,” this would do much to repair its international image. Ideally, such efforts should begin immediately.
Robert Freeman eloquently wrote that only “energy reconfiguration” can save America from devolving into despotism. His essay, “Will the End of Oil Mean the End of America?” offered several specific policy recommendations that symbolized the sacrifices we must soon undertake if America is to pursue a concerted effort to enhance our national security, and preserve our freedom:
"Energy reconfiguration means retrofitting all of the nation’s buildings, both commercial and residential, to double their energy efficiency. It means a crash program to shift the transportation system — cars, trucks — to a basis that uses perhaps half as much oil per year. This is well within reach of current technology .... It means refitting industrial and commercial processes — lighting, heating, appliances, automation, etc. — so that they, too, consume far less energy than they do today. It means increasing efficiency, reducing consumption, and building sustainable, long-term alternatives in every arena in which the economy uses oil."
As for the US, an aggressive 5-year roll-out of 35 mpg Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFÉ) standards for all automobiles (including light trucks) would be a tremendous investment enhancing its national security. Writing for the Austin Chronicle, Michael Ventura advocated transitioning to a rail-based system, and made the astute observation that our ability – or inability – to quickly dismantle our military empire in exchange for enacting energy reconfiguration, will likely determine the fate of the US dollar in the new century.
"One key to America’s future will be: How quickly can we build or rebuild heavy and light rail? And where will we get the money to do it? Railroads are the cheapest transport, the easiest to sustain...There’s only one section of our economy that has that kind of money: the military budget. The U.S. now spends more on its military than all other nations combined. A sane transit to a post-automobile American will require a massive shift from military to infrastructure spending. That shift would be supported by our bankers in China and Europe (that is, they would continue to finance our debt) because it’s in their interests that we regain economic viability. What’s not in their interests is that we remain a military superpower."
Americans should harbor no illusions that, with the current campaign finance structure, it will be exceedingly difficult to enhance national security, given the powerful military and energy conglomerates who “invest” hundreds of millions in cash to political campaigns every election in order to purchase politicians in both parties. This system will have to yield to a more workable system that places humanity above political ideology and power. Considering all suppliers report that current oil production is running “flat out,” the world may have arrived at a plateau. Neither the US nor the global community is prepared for such a reality.
Following the peaking of domestic oil production in 1971 and the oil shocks of the 1970s, the US should have spent much of the past 25 years preparing for global Peak Oil. A second historic opportunity was lost in the aftermath 9/11, when, if under real leadership, the American people could have become united in the patriotic pursuit of conserving energy and seeking energy alternatives to strengthen our national security. Unfortunately that tragedy was exploited to introduce another upon the world — the unprovoked invasion subsequent occupation of Iraq.
Despite this substantial setback, Americans must have realistic faith in ourselves and believe that we can adjust to the challenges of Peak Oil, or we will certainly fail. We need a visionary leader to define America’s new role and work together toward realizing that vision.
Multilateralism and extraordinary international energy reform in the post–Peak Oil era is the key to global stability in the 21st century. In his book on Peak Oil, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes warned his readers:
"This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil. At least, let’s hope that the war is waged with cash instead of with nuclear warheads."
