Whatever wrote:BWHill does not have a very high opinion of you
Like I'm supposed to care? I mean, you're retired, right? Sometimes you come across like an 8 year old who is infatuated with a role-model. PStarr too the way he wanted to rush to defend the "honor" of people he felt I was besmirching. I mean, come on, here. We're adults. I have no need to seek anyone's personal stamp of approval, nor do I feel obligated to bow and curtsy for people I don't feel deserve to be put on pedestals.
Whatever wrote:you haven't come up with a convincing argument against the Korowicz paper.
Do you understand what proving a negative is????? It's a classic logical fallacy. The above statement is an appeal for us to prove a negative. That's the crux of your beef. That the default viewpoint is that the Korowicz paper is true until proven false. It's actually the reverse. Due to Occam's Razor, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Saying that the store shelves will be bare within days and the zombie hordes will go rampaging is an extraordinary claim. All fast-crash scenarios are extraordinary claims. The more specific the claim (like setting a date in the immediate future, otherwise known as nigh, the more extraordinary the claims are, and the higher the burden of proof.
Do you know how many really bright people have been wrong before? How many scientists doubted the existence of the Higgs boson or gravity waves? Those people have much higher IQs than you or me, and yet they were wrong. I want to be careful going down this avenue because it's the same sort of track used by AGW deniers. But my point is that just because one individual or a small minority of intelligentsia says something, I'm not going to just rubber-stamp it.
How about Nate Silver? He was hoisted up as a modern Nostradamus after the 2008 election. Here's what he has to say lately.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how ... ald-trump/And that guy is a statistician who tries to trust the numbers and not just going on hunches, just like your fabled Hills Group.
Do you finally get what I'm saying? There's no humility in this analysis. No concession to possibly being wrong. More often than not that leads to Dewey vs. Truman moments.
In the case of the doomersphere, THAT is why The Oil Drum (which once seemed just as authoritative and academic as any scientific source) is gone and why this site only has a handful of posters, most of them whackos of some stripe.
I need to see things start to
TREND. I saw things TRENDING with the real-estate market before the crash hit, for instance. And things trended well over a decade ago with climate science. Things that are patently obvious do not remain fringe forever, even inconvenient truths like limits to growth. But for it to be buried on a website that looks like it was designed in 1996 or in some paper from 4+ years ago ain't cuttin' it. And BTW, going out and cherry picking articles saying we're gonna go into a recession doesn't cut it either. A recession != doom. I've lived through a few of them already without having to resort to long pork. And if you find doom, I'm going to scrutinize the
source. Having a bunch of fringe whackos or people flogging books or precious metals doesn't cut it either. It has to percolate up through MSM.
P.S. Nate Silver's humility here is worth reading:
When those hypotheses fail, you should re-evaluate the evidence before moving on to the next subject. The distinguishing feature of the scientific method is not that it always gets the answer right, but that it fails forward by learning from its mistakes.
How often do you ever read mea culpas like this on the internet? This is the sort of stuff I need to see people do to earn my respect. They don't have to be right all the time. They have to be willing to cop to being wrong and explain how they are adjusting their methodology appropriately.
This introspection is something the dwindling number of hardcore doomers have YET to do. They have sought ways to double-down on their dogmas but have not admitted to being wrong. Someone like Gail is the poster-child for that, for instance. At the ground level, unrepentant doomers like PStarr fall into that category of the proverbial
unexamined life that isn't worth living.Anyone plowing through this forum is going to be faced with increasingly obstinate doomers who are immune from anything approaching reason. People like Starving Lion who lives within his own doomer reality distortion field in which a Hobbesian collapse is already now all around us, no matter where we are. I have no more patience for such idiocy, such lack of nuance and lack of objectivity.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)