[sch_peakoiler]

Hi,

I was checking the last issue of the BP World Energy Outlook recently, for some countries that may have reached their local
peaks. I just took the data from 1993 to 2004, all the numbers are Thousands barrels per day.


UK:
Data since 1993. Peak in 1999;
2119 2675 2749 2735 2702 2807 2909 2667 2476 2463 2257 2029

Norway:
Data since 1993. Peak in 2001.
2377 2693 2903 3232 3280 3138 3139 3346 3418 3333 3264 3188

I have to mention the fact that world oil demand was sluggish in 2001, that can probably be the reason for the fall, but i am not sure.
Man, those guys are exporters!


Ok, US! You all know those figures, but still.
8583 8389 8322 8295 8269 8011 7731 7733 7669 7626 7400 7241



Oman.
785 819 868 897 909 905 911 959 961 900 823 785

Peak 961, then decline.

Australia.
572 614 583 619 669 644 625 809 733 731 624 541

Peak 2000.

Indonesia:
1588 1589 1578 1580 1557 1520 1408 1456 1389 1288 1183 1126

Looks like a peak in 1994, with a decline tendency which interrupts for one year in 2000, what does not reverse decline.


I think it is clear that there is no spare capacity to help reverse Saudian decline, _when_ it comes.


I will post this on Energyresources, as well.

[pup55]

I used your data to make this little graph. This is what the decline curves look like for these countries (I left off the US because it actually peaked quite awhile back.

5 years after the peak, the nations like Australia and UK are only pumping about 2/3 of the amount they pumped when they were at max. Norway is supposed to be about 2500 this year, so they are in the same boat, essentially.

The slope has been a lot more gentle for Indonesia.

The world had better hope that when Saudi and Kuwait peak, their decline looks more like Indonesia than UK.