[JuanP]

Thank you folks for your replies!

I am not exactly an alarmist in the short term, but I look at various cycles and trends throughout history and extrapolate forwards. This ''Peak Oil'' crisis is just one of several going on all at once, and the system we can call ''modernity'' is not as solid as it seems. I don't think things will collapse overnight in any case, it might take centuries to fall before it finds some equilibrium. I think we in fact have been in a ''new dark ages'' since about 1904.

I am planning on studying this Peak Oil phenomena and asking questions, seeing how it fits into the larger group of trends.

Thanks!

Welcome! I am mostly curious about the rest of this century.

[jedrider]

Peak Optimism was about 1980 and then it plateaued for about twenty years and has taken a downward trend since.

It may be twenty years ahead of peak oil as we may be on the plateau portion already IMO.

[AdamB]

I am not doing without, I should say, lol. But tomorrow, who knows?

There being no facts in the future, "who knows" indeed.

[Doly]

Tomorrow indeed. Based on the observation that the modern peak oil era began with Colin Campbell delcaring global peak oil had occurred in 1990, how many more DECADES of tomorrows might we need to continue to wait?

It's unlikely that we will have to wait a single decade, considering that electric vehicles are mainstream now and the only country that has been significantly increasing oil production recently is the USA, while all other countries are roughly stable or decreasing production. And there is a strong argument that the increase in production in the USA is backed by some very weird financial shenaningans, in other words, it isn't actually profitable but it's made to appear so.

[AdamB]

Tomorrow indeed. Based on the observation that the modern peak oil era began with Colin Campbell delcaring global peak oil had occurred in 1990, how many more DECADES of tomorrows might we need to continue to wait?

It's unlikely that we will have to wait a single decade, considering that electric vehicles are mainstream now and the only country that has been significantly increasing oil production recently is the USA, while all other countries are roughly stable or decreasing production. And there is a strong argument that the increase in production in the USA is backed by some very weird financial shenaningans, in other words, it isn't actually profitable but it's made to appear so.

I can see a peak oil in this decade. Depending on how more than a few scenarios play out, the effects of environmental enthusiasm playing out in society, legislation forcing behavorial changes, how the moral fiber of consumers hold up in light of the first two and economic side effects accompanying them, etc etc.

No requirement for peak oil via scarcity this decade though.

[Plantagenet]

Welcome Vladimir

The Saudi Crown Prince and Oil Minister just warned of the potential for a HUGE shortfall in global oil production by the end of the decade due to a lack of investment in oil exploration and oil field development.

saudis-warn-of-a-worrisome-collapse-in-oil-supply

We currently produce and consume about 100 millions bbls/day on a global basis.......the Saudis predicted we're going to see a 30% decline in oil production down to 70 million bbl/day by the end of the decade.

If that happens, then we'll be the lucky generation that will get to see the arrival of peak oil.......the Saudis say we'll reach the peak in global oil production before the end of this decade.


Peak Oil is coming by the end of the decade, Inshallah!

Cheers!

[jedrider]

Why has Peak Oil been so elusive? We also expected a neat peek like in 1972 that Hubbert predicted.

We were wrong because we didn't factor in the true nature of a resource peak. A sharp peak occurs because other processes are able to take over, such as extra-continental oil resources.

However, a true peak in its significance is actually a plateau. It means we are trying to get more oil resources, but the growth is just not there any longer. That is why there was no Hubbert peak.

[Pops]

Why has Peak Oil been so elusive?

I'd say because "Economist" was a dirty word around here for a long time. Most of us expected that geology trumps money, that when conventional flow peaked that all the other unconventional and tertiary recovery would not be able to keep up no matter the price. Peak then decline, period.

Turns out that if you invent enough money to throw at the problem, yeah, you can get oilish liquids where before there was "none" —at least for a time. It's been said frackers have lost $300 billion of OPM on LTO. Which, if nothing else, proves high EROEI is not a requirement in any meaningful way. At least in the short run.

I've learned that people are very sensitive about their fossil oriented lifes, and their own self image, they will not be proactive over PO because they are afraid of the stigma of, I don't know, Luddite or Cassandra, or Doomsday Prepper. They will make motions toward GW because that makes them feel generous or informed or conscientious. Or they'll reject the whole premise that god would leave them in the lurch.

That doesn't make me smarter or make them sheep it just shows we look at things from different perspectives. Hence I no longer expect some phase-shift like change in society as the realization comes to dawn. More likely continued scapegoating and exaggerated local booms and busts with what mitigation there is mainly taking place on the personal level. Likely increased social tensions as good people on both sides are played against the other.

That's the big change for me, I can deal with much of PO, I doubt I can deal with the 8 Billion who can't

[evilgenius]

You can look at the Ukraine, and Putin's threat to invade it, and tell that peak oil is real. But you can also tell that it is on the back burner.

There are several things going on right now that involve what is happening in Ukraine. One of those is the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Another is the limited participation in Iraq. America is not panicking about its energy sources as much as it was a few years ago. It doesn't look like the US is going to knock over Iran any time too soon.

It is possible the people in charge of deciding where the US military will go have decided that the electric car future is going to work. If anything, I would be looking for how the US military, or other organizations loyal to the US, can corner control of various Lithium reserves and markets. It looks like they have decided to break off from the push they were making into the region south of Russia, which could have, eventually, threatened Russia. They don't need the Russian reserves to succeed through the end game anymore.

[AdamB]

You can look at the Ukraine, and Putin's threat to invade it, and tell that peak oil is real. But you can also tell that it is on the back burner.

If you want to argue Peak Natural Gas perhaps, but wars that aren't even wars yet are no more peak oil derived than the war in Vietnam, Russia's war against Chechnya, Gulf War 1 or 2, the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan or America's abandonment of it in 2021.

[theluckycountry]

Why has Peak Oil been so elusive? We also expected a neat peek like in 1972 that Hubbert predicted.

If in 2025 we took all the oil produced and used it to make oil from coal, so that the 'net' total of oil production rose higher than today, would you call that postponing peak? Considering the amount of energy and energy equivalents used to produce that spurt in tight oil production I still consider the peak to have occurred around 2008. That's when the world as a whole began it's 1970's style fall from prosperity. And that's the measure of it, from "happy Days" to thousands defecating in the streets of America's major cities. Hell San Fransisco is fast becoming Mumbai.

Mumbai is notorious for being a slum city
https://zcfawya.wordpress.com/2021/10/2 ... t-poverty/

[AdamB]

Why has Peak Oil been so elusive? We also expected a neat peek like in 1972 that Hubbert predicted.

If in 2025 we took all the oil produced and used it to make oil from coal, so that the 'net' total of oil production rose higher than today, would you call that postponing peak?

Peak oil is the moment at which extraction of petroleum reaches a rate greater than that at any time in the past and starts to permanently decrease.

Sticking with proper definitions seems best.

Considering the amount of energy and energy equivalents used to produce that spurt in tight oil production I still consider the peak to have occurred around 2008.

Good thing you aren't paid to be the one making such a call, but mistaking energy (a general thing) for oil (a specific thing...hence.. peak OIL) seems to be right up your alley.

That's when the world as a whole began it's 1970's style fall from prosperity.

See link above for what peak oil is, and what is expected to occur after it happens. A hint...less oil production.

[theluckycountry]

The Saudi Crown Prince and Oil Minister just warned of the potential for a HUGE shortfall in global oil production by the end of the decade due to a lack of investment in oil exploration and oil field development.

Cheers!

Aramco moves into Saudi Arabia in the 1930's and begins to exploit it, after the war production ramps way up. In the early 1950's the dictator demands more profits, and equal share actually, and Aramco gives in and splits the profit. By 1980 the Saudis take full control, basically kick Aramco into the dirt and go on to waste all the profits on golden palaces, military expenditures and a massive social security system that sees a population explosion, mostly dole bludgers.

30 years later, the major fields are running dry and they begin to offer shares in Saudi Aramco because they can't even afford to do their own exploration and drilling.

"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel." --Saudi saying.

[vtsnowedin]

The real final peak oil will come not when there is a lack of investment in exploration or drilling. It will come when there is no where left to explore and exploit, and no new technology that lets us rework old fields, squeezing out additional oil from what what had once been termed depleted, or from" almost oil" like tar sands. When we reach that and all efforts can not increase supply we will then be at the final peak.
The problem in predicting "peak oil" has been that the predictors repeatedly under estimate the advances in technology that keep moving the goal posts forward.
But eventually we will run out of places to drill or processes to convert and will indeed reach a true and final peak oil. We can only hope we have found workable alternatives by that time.
At present my amateur opinion is that that date is still one or even two decades away.

[AdamB]

30 years later, the major fields are running dry and they begin to offer shares in Saudi Aramco because they can't even afford to do their own exploration and drilling.

No mention of running dry from folks who would know. Huh.

$35 Billion in Saudi CapX investment in 2021...what banana bender said "can't afford"?

[Pops]

Vladimir, you should know that Pops is not normally so pessimistic. I would normally say Pops is actually an optimist. He is probably not the optimist that some here have been toward you already, pretty much rejecting the whole idea of peak oil before you even had a chance to properly introduce yourself. No, he's not that kind of an optimist.
Pops, what would you call yourself? I tend to think of you as center, but I don't know if I would categorize you as center-left, or center-right?

Just saw this, Evil, I can't really slot myself as all one thing. I feel I'm pretty pessimistic in assessment of our current state, I think about it a lot and it amazes me we're still here. The last 10 years particularly feel like we've run over the cliff and I'm listening for the "meep-meep".

OTOH, I'm not an armchair doomer who just sits and frets and proclaims "we're all dead!" and that probably limits my pessimism. I'm a prepper (not just a gun collector) because when I get nervous I do something about what's bothering me, learn a skill, grow food, move, whatever.

I think it was Barbara, an old peaker from way back whose sig-line was "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas." That isn't me.

OTOH I am optimistic as to survival of humans as a species, we're pretty smart, just not smart enough to get along in large groups, say more than a dozen, LOL

You could say, I Want To Believe... I just don't.

[Pops]

On the pessimistic side,
word is Pootie-poot is going into Ukraine.
Oil's headed to $120
OPEC can't keep up with their own targets
KSA wants to go public (no hints there, right?)
the only basin coming back strong is Permian
most of the world, aside from the largest producers, is already in decline
High refinery margins are the past
nat gas can't even keep up, let alone be a "Bridge"
we can't build EVs and RE fast enough

[evilgenius]

On the pessimistic side,
word is Pootie-poot is going into Ukraine.
Oil's headed to $120
OPEC can't keep up with their own targets
KSA wants to go public (no hints there, right?)
the only basin coming back strong is Permian
most of the world, aside from the largest producers, is already in decline
High refinery margins are the past
nat gas can't even keep up, let alone be a "Bridge"
we can't build EVs and RE fast enough

I'll be glad of my fascination with solar up to this point, that's what you're telling me.

Because, when it becomes critical, it becomes plain the government will pave the way. Paving the way means making the financing easy. The US is the best in the world at that.

[Pops]

I just saw an article this morning that predicted a silicone > panel glut in a couple of years if the manufacturing facilities in the pipe are all completed s planned. In fact the first sentence started with "Just in time for peak oil..."
I hope to time it so I can get a system up and then die before it does.

[vtsnowedin]

That would be a good problem to have.
I don't see it though as there are millions of acres of south facing roof space to fill plus a lot of desert land that could be used to good effect. If we are building them here and not using Chinese panels it will be all good.
We do need to build out a lot of storage facilities to deal with the intermittency of solar and wind.
I'm all for going renewable as long as they get it up and working before they unplug the source we have now.