mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.
The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."
https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html
So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....
mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.
The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."
https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html
So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....
Plantagenet wrote:
Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India
Cheers!
AdamB wrote:mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.
The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."
https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html
So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....
FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!
Outcast_Searcher wrote:What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Peak oil could come in 2028 due to pandemic
James Osborne 11/2/2020
3 minutes
WASHINGTON — The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is suppressing oil demand to such a degree that some energy analysts are questioning whether it will accelerate society's transition from the fossil fuel.
a crane in the dark © Elizabeth Conley, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer
Analysis released Monday by Rystad Energy, an independent research firm in Norway, predicts that oil demand will now peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, two years earlier than they predicted before the virus struck.
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"The slow recovery will permanently affect global oil demand levels," said Artyom Tchen, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad. "The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use."
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Right now, global oil demand is averaging about 89.3 million barrels per day, a 10 percent decline from last year. And Rystad is predicting that it won't rebound to those levels until 2023, as government lockdowns intensify with rising infection rates ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere.
And there could be longer term shifts in energy use, Rystad says, as businesses rely more on teleconferencing platforms for meetings and tourists avoid airplanes for their vacations.
At the same time, industry and governments in Europe and Asia are not backing off their clean energy goals, despite the economic fallout.
Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 14 percent of total global car sales by 2025, reaching 80 percent by mid-century, Rystad said.
"The pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes," Tchen wrote. "This will help oil substitution gain speed and inevitably take global consumption to lower levels quicker, hand in hand with the energy transition."
Tanada wrote:For those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?
ralfy wrote:"Real peak oil" started back in 1979.
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html
dashster wrote:What did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss?
Pops wrote:Right now there is oil stranded in various places due to government problems— just like there was in Russia and Iraq before the invasion. Oilish stuff is waiting to be mined in various places— at a price. LTO may or may not ever be profitable, I can't guess. The US could discontinue efficiency standards, or reimpose even stricter at a whim, who knows?
That's what it boils down to, who knows? I'm pretty sure nobody. And all the "they've been predicting it for 100 years" arguments are just as useless. They are using the exact same set of data as the linearization except to justify their prediction that because there has never been a peak, there never will or not soon. Again, pretty useless.
dashster wrote:What did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss?
dashster wrote:How much of the reserves that they didn't see were American shale and how much was regular crude in other parts of the world?
Pops wrote:They got pretty close tho—all things being equal...
AdamB wrote:proof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.
mousepad wrote:AdamB wrote:proof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.
I think peak is very simple to understand.
mousepad wrote:A peak is where the derivative is 0. Like this:
f(x)d/dx = 0
Maybe you're not expert enough in math? And the concept puzzles you?
Happy New Year
AdamB wrote:
There are ways of solving this problem,
What part of your ignorance of that fact puzzles you?
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