[shortonsense]

Dr., they've already made their 2009 WEO findings public. Here's a press overview link

Cool! Quick question...why does any oily organization pitch climate change right there at the beginning of their report?

[kpeavey]

Too little to late. At 7% decline rate overall, we're looking at a 12 year plunge to 50% production. At 5% decline rate overall, we're looking at a 14 year plunge to 50% production.
In either case (the hopeful 7% or the dreaming 5%) we are completely screwed and to attempt to cover the decline with climate change legislation would cause a riot across the U.S.. The CCC will blame it on the Muslims before they lay claim to it.

If oil declines to 50% in 14 years:
1) The price range of oil per barrel will be from $___ to $___?
2) What will the price of gasoline be per gallon?
3) What will the US share of that be? (compared to 25% now)
4) How will that distribution of petroleum in the US be? (fuel oil, transportation, agri)

At a 7% decline rate I come up with a 10-10.3 year period to reach 50% production. (Bartlett: "Do your own math")
This 10-14 year plunge in global oil production carries with it a 10-14 year plunge in global population.

Such decline rates infer a fast crash scenario.
It won't take a 50% drop in oil production to permanently and radically change our lifestyles.

now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[davep]

Cool! Quick question...why does any oily organization pitch climate change right there at the beginning of their report?

They have their reference scenario and the 450 scenario (for reduction of CO2). IMO, they know the reference scenario is complete rubbish, as we'd need four new Saudis by 2030. They're pitching the reality as an attempt to reduce AGW, with all these lovely renewable energy sources. It's Peak Oil mitigation by the back door, IMO of course.

[Dr. Ofellati]

Don't be silly, oil has been depleting for better than a century now. It didn't just suddenly START, how do you think we managed to produce 50% of it already? By depleting it!

No need to play word games - production depleting - If you didn't understand that part of my post, you're not qualified to comment.
If you did understand it, then, in response to your sophistication, I'm going to drill you with the dodge ball at recess.

I believe the calculation for 7% decline rates, to be true, requires a new Saudi Arabia every 2 years or so. We've been about 4 years on the plateau, I don't suppose you can point at the 2 new Saudi Arabia's which have been added to OPEC since 2004?

Don't know what you're talking about here. I didn't say that decline started in 04.

The rest of your post relies on the incorrect 04 presumption, and, as such, is not worth comment.

[davep]

SoS, I suggest you read the Field by Field depletion study from last year's WEO publication, that the IEA made publicly available today. I linked to it earlier on.

In essence, the older giants and super giants deplete more slowly. The more recent smaller fields are depleting much faster. They also go into how the Saudis have been able to maintain production rates with keeping the pressure up using water, CO2 etc etc. It makes for pretty scary reading overall. And they then keep a straight face when they say we'll discover another 40mb/day by 2030.

[rangerone314]

Europe is an interesting model. The US does suffer from the problem of being more spread out compared to Europe, and not just in terms of urban sprawl.

Also, I believe a very significant part of the cost of gasoline in Europe is government taxes and being revenue for the government, the expectation is they get some form of government service for those taxes.

When gas is $7/gallon in the US, we'll simply be paying $7 at the pump, so while I might be same as Europe, most of that won't return as government services. It'll just be money that might as will be burned in a great big bonfire like in "The Dark Knight".

[mcgowanjm]

And the European Train System is second to none.

When I can catch a sleeper with first class food service from
KC to NO, then I'll think the US has a chance.

[Jotapay]

Quick question...why does any oily organization pitch climate change right there at the beginning of their report?

Exactly. I hate to be all tin-foily, but it seems that the timing and association with other issues (CO2/environmentalism) is being used as a means to some end. I wonder what could be afoot. Are TPTB finally trying to manage and reign in virtually unchecked energy consumption?

[davep]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future
-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

By some strange coincidence, these happen to be PO mitigation methods as well.

[kpeavey]

I see the 450 scenario being an extension of using Global Warming as the cover story to lull the public into compliance. Makes me think the US Congress will put health care on the table in order to push through a big environment bill, 1191 pages at least, with similar urgency.

And they then keep a straight face when they say we'll discover another 40mb/day by 2030.

Of course it not going to happen.
A 10-15 year period to reach 50% production, the impractical assumption that BAU will continue for that entire period, and a 10 year requirement to bring major new projects online tells me that all the oil projects that will be able to contribute to the supply side of the equation have already been started. May as well melt down the exploration rigs. They are now useless.

[davep]

My doom-o-meter has just gone up a few notches.

Help!

[IslandCrow]

Thanks DaveP for the link... feeling a little stressed out (health reasons in family member) it was good to have a simple summary.

My impression is that it does not look good. EG. see page 7 on natural gas:

Additional capacity of around 2 700 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 2030 - half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand

My read is that this report looks like they are pushing for policies to curtail the rise of energy use (or at least giving good backing to governments to do something).

[davep]

I'm guessing the 450 scenario is there because of the change in the US President. It's the only way of starting mitigation without making their previous predictions look like the cornucopian wet dream they were.

This could be tied in with the Guardian leak (I mean whistleblowers) and the release of the field by field depletion analysis as a massive change of direction for the IEA.

[kpeavey]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future
-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

The whistleblowers spoke of the US influence upon the IEA report, but did not say the influence has ended. This new report is the US governments plan of action. This is not an energy outlook report, its a green light for establishing legislation to assume control of energy resources and consumption under the guise of saving the earth's climate.

"Massive decarbonisation" is newspeak for "we out of oil, Baby."

To further support this plan, a major climate report containing the names of lots of highly accredited scientists should be forthcoming. To draw attention away from the IEA report, I'd expect such a climate report within the next few weeks. It will be similar in design to the IEA report *cough BS cough* in designating climate change mitigation as an urgent situation.

To cover the mitigation costs, taxes will be mandatory. The US is 25% of consumption. $500B x .25= $125B / 300M people =$416/person/year. All by itself this is an additional $8/week/person, but double that figure to account for deadbeats and people without a car, $16/week. A 16 gallon tank being filled once/week will dictate a $1/gallon fuel tax. Add another $1/gallon each year. I expect to see this begin within the next 6 months.

Since coal is relatively abundant and used for electricity, the decarbonization strategy will be highly focus on petroleum products. I expect to see tremendous new interest in the nuclear sector.

[Maddog78]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

By some strange coincidence, these happen to be PO mitigation methods as well.

[davep]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

By some strange coincidence, these happen to be PO mitigation methods as well.

And your point is?

Using natural gas may well be a decent peak oil mitigation technique as part of a whole range of measures. We're still going to need to power down though

[Maddog78]

My point is very simply, I work in the n.g. industry so it's good news some people think n.g. can help us ease the power down.

A nearly purely selfish point, I admit.

[gt1370a]

That explains why Fatih Birol was out saying oil DEMAND has peaked in OECD countries, due to the recession, climate change concerns, and alternative energy.

[davep]

My point is very simply, I work in the n.g. industry so it's good news some people think n.g. can help us ease the power down.

A nearly purely selfish point, I admit.

Kudos for your frankness

[Voice_du_More]

Wait until Americans realize that the solution most of the world has in mind is for American to consume 80% less oil after the dollar evaporates. Ergo, the prices for everyone else who wants to be like America drop like a stone and they all start rpsopering for a time while the smoke of our burning goes up like a furnace.

I'm not surprised if this is true and it makes the mythical $500 superspike seem like a crisis point we could see in the next year. I'm certain there will be a spike in the spring again and the second time people probably won't be blaming the oil companies.

My other concern is how much, if the US is trying to intimidate the IAE, as we recently also intimidated Britain over some inconvenient truths, are we willing to maybe quiet a few peak oil dissidents? It's a good thing for us that there are guys like Simmons out in the public eye still talking it because it makes it harder to silence the voices of us grassroots whackos.

I agree that if the markets ever honestly believed that we will never cross 85mbpd again markets around the world would plummet as commodities especially oil went through the roof. Imagine a one day 50% drop in the Dow as everyone tried to flood the oil market and oil just went up, up, up.

The canaries are desperately singing already. I mean Gold has now quietly top $1100. What's up with that? Well, countries around the world are tuning into gold and the euro and disfavoring the dollar. The dollar inflation is being driving more and more by lack of confidence from abroad not Fed policy.

So, it looks like the hard core doomers might get their Mad-Max scenario afterall. I wonder if we will get alot of aussie's trying to immigrate to live out their fantasies. We on the other hand won't need to see the movie, we'll be living it.

You see even a post like this that I am making that is just calling for someone somewhere to be honest and make some wise choices could fall under scrutiny because we can't have panic, we just can't. So keep lying until you have damned ten or twenty million more people.

"But if we are honest America will lose her place of supremacy in the world and..."

That's the hard thing about building your legacy by force of arms, by always carrying the biggest stick. If the stick ever breaks you don't have very much to fall back on.

I am praying that the round up and internment of peak oil dissidents never gets any legs. The fact is rather than being enemies we have been among the few who tried to consistently awaken our nation to it's real need.

Hopefully somebodies 'thoughts' will be with us as we face these difficult times.