[kpeavey]

Pandora's Box is open. Not only are the IEA figures bogus, the US has used the IEA as a pawn to lie to the rest of the world in order to prevent a panic in the markets. Now that the box is open, I would expect an oil price spike over the next few days as speculators assimilate this news.

The US would not be trying to conceal the figures if there was no serious problem. Hence it is plausible that a serious problem does indeed exist. Around here, we knew this all along, but have been cast as the lunatic fringe. A lot of people out there need to make some room in their fridge for a big, fat, buttery, I Told You So Sandwich. It is barely a small hop in logic to conclude that many of the things we have been discussing over the past few years is right on the nose.
We may be lunatics, but that does not mean we have been wrong.

As long as the truth is coming out, the troops in the middle east are not there for terrorists, they are there to establish a military presence in an oil rich region. And the economy is crapping out because of energy quality, price and availability. And all the stimulus and health care spending is to placate the public. As for nationwide blackouts, FEMA camps and the Northcom troops...we'll see how crazy our ideas were soon enough.

[Jotapay]

What's the old adage here? He who panics first gets out alive....

Anyone who trusts the government to tell the truth is a damned fool.

[Revi]

This is like the mortgage bond crisis in oil.

Letting us all know this means that there isn't long before the whole thing falls apart.

They will have to come clean on how much is left, and everyone will freak when they find out that the party's almost out of beer.

[Dr. Ofellati]

Brace yourself, guys. This is already running up the flagpole again. Let's see how far it gets before the whack-a-mole happens.

Excellent find Mos. Reuters picking this up takes it from HUGE to GINORMOUS (I like to whisper too). With regard to whack-a-mole, I don't know. I think the big oil players, including the pure investors, already know the game. The tripe they serve up on the 6 O'Clock news with Mr. Soothing is known to them and us as deceit.

[Dr. Ofellati]

This is like the mortgage bond crisis in oil.

Letting us all know this means that there isn't long before the whole thing falls apart.

They will have to come clean on how much is left, and everyone will freak when they find out that the party's almost out of beer.

Yes. Well put.

I remember when the Fed took aggressive action back at the beginning of the credit crisis. I can't recall the exact action, but it was something dramatic, like pumping an unusually large sum into the banks and opening a credit window. I remember that several of us pointed out that this was the start of the great credit unwinding that we all knew must happen (nod to TF.com). That is, all of us except Mr. Bill, who steadfastly argued, for about a month or two, that this was business as usual.

I call them points of inflection. That's a point in time at which the direction of a thing changes. In our case, the attitude of the intelligentsia to the oil situation.

We'll see what this stirs up. It's huge in the abstract, to be sure, but it may succumb to the brute force submission lock of the corporate media and TPTB who don't want panic.

[kpeavey]

The original article references 2 IEA sources: 1 senior official, 1 senior official who has left the IEA. If there is only 1 voice of dissent, the Whack-a-Mole guys can discredited or silence the guy. Two sources is hard to spin and implies significant discord within the Agency.

[frankthetank]

Don't know what to believe anymore. I just know that in the event of drastically reduced oil output, the US is screwed ... Europe at least has trains and bicycles...we've got diabetes and obesity... No one wants to walk

[Dr. Ofellati]

Don't know what to believe anymore. I just know that in the event of drastically reduced oil output, the US is screwed ... Europe at least has trains and bicycles...we've got diabetes and obesity... No one wants to walk

Look at the bright side - Europe is a forced mix of religiously, culturally, and historically disparate people who are always a few breaths away from all out war, and the U.S. is not.

Oh wait. That's not really a bright side.

Nevermind.

[hardtootell-2]

and then there is this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-bl ... 00-2009-11

oil futures at $100.

Ready or not!

[Maddog78]

We'll see what this stirs up.

Cheney.

Cheney will kill the whistlerblowers (personally garroting them with his own cello strings). He will retrieve GW from his Paraguay hideaway and install him as Oil Commissar (that is CZAR for short) and declare it an Oil Holiday, ie a petroleum Jug Jerkoff with GW as the Swiller-in-Charge. We will promptly invade everybody in order to stabilize the markets. Can't have confusion in the markets. Must stabilize.

Credit where it's due. This made me LOL.

[timmac]

Would this be a good time to buy some oil stock ??

I would love to double $10,000 fast,, strange than also I am having my rear axle rebuilt on my motorhome and new rear brakes at a tune of $3800..

[Mesuge]

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."

Interestingly enough, similar leaks (from IEA) have been circulating with increased periodicity since Q3/2008. There was critical article and comments in TOD by that student, who personaly questioned IEA senior staffers for his uni paper, the controversial info was deemed beyond hot for TOD, so it was later censored by its administrators, and this act of TOD's flip flopping was even banned to be discussed here at PO.com by one "mod" around this Sept. as well.

Btw. what is also interesting about this Guardian piece is how they try to attach it to the Copenhagen conference on GW. It seems some pursue the strategy to pre-sell the post PO frugal life on the backs of climate change.

So, in summary, alternative or mainstream media some people are just scared white and not able to face the unfolding reality. Or rather playing silly games again trying to get ahead of the rest of the pack, as goes the notion, you merely need to outrun the slowest guy next to you aka human nature at work..

[MD]

And the PO panic is off and running once again.

Really people, you need to relax and enjoy the show.

[dorlomin]

AFP

PARIS — The IEA forecast on Tuesday that the oil price, excluding inflation, would be 100 dollars a barrel in 2020 and 115 dollars in 2030, saying oil demand would rise by one percent per year.

Global demand would rise from 85 million barrels per day in 2008 to 105 mbd in 2030, assuming that forthcoming negotiations on global warming in Copenhagen did not result in immediate big changes in energy policies, the IEA said.

The average oil price this year would be about 60 dollars per barrel against a background of weak economic activity.

The price would then rise with economic recovery to 115 dollars a barrel in 20 years' time in constant dollar valuations, meaning after stripping out the effect of inflation, the International Energy Agency said.

ORLY?