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It's the End of the World as We Know it

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 13:49:02

Seriously though. Whatever it was that quarantined us on this planet seems pretty determined that we not get off. Where is the next inhabitable planet? Do we even know? We never got any further exploring space than our own moon. How many orders of magnitude greater is the distance to the next inhabitable planet?


I disagree. There are already plans for further human lunar exploration before 2020 and eventual colonisation. Link

This experience will prepare pioneers for colonisation of Mars and asteroids.
Link

The benefits of the space program are partly unpredictable but one that is of interest to this forum is energy. Helium 3 may well be mined and used in fusion reactors on Earth and Moon. Solar satellites could be constructed there too. I'm not an expert in this area and I'm sure there is more information about this subject that I'm not aware of. Others may wish to contribute. . .
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 16:25:05

Just out of curiousity, are you wearing Spock ears while you type this stuff?

People plan to win the lottery. People plan to castrate themselves, drink phenobarbital, and go live in the Halle Bop comet. Just because some wingnut is writing wikipedia articles about his plans to build a Moon colony doesn't mean that it's going to happen. The reality is that the world passed it's per capita energy usage peak a long time ago. We will never again have that ability to waste energy, and we will never again set foot on the moon, much less say some yet undiscovered inhabitable planet in another solar system. The last significant step that happened in space exploration was the Space Shuttle. That was in 1981!

I'm sorry. I know it was a fun party, but face it. It's morning. All that's left is stale beer and a big mess and your parents are going to be home soon.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 17:28:23

The Wikipedia articles are a reputable source as good as (if not better than) Encyclopedia Britannica. The NASA site says much the same thing:
nasa
In any case, American astronauts will go to the moon again for military and patriotic reasons because otherwise the Chinese will beat them to it. They have laid down the gauntlet and pledged to be there before 2020 too. This is not fantasy. Check out Cape Canaveral on Thursday.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby TheTurtle » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 21:16:02

Graeme wrote:I disagree. There are already plans for further human lunar exploration before 2020 and eventual colonisation.


Once upon a time, more than three decades ago, NASA had plans for a permanent Moon Base, manned exploration of Mars, and a permanent Mars Base --- all to happen pre-1980.

Didn't happen then. Won't happen now. Won't happen in the future.

China can dream jingoist dreams of putting a taikonaut on the moon, but their hi-tech days are just as numbered as those of the US. They might think they will launch a manned mission to the moon in 2017, but I think the odds are a whole lot better that by that time the People's Republic will have collapsed and China will once again experience a period of Warring states.

Just my opinion, of course. If it makes you sleep better at night believing that humans will someday sail through space, then Live Long and Prosper!
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 23:53:38

TheTurtle wrote:...They might think they will launch a manned mission to the moon in 2017, but I think the odds are a whole lot better that by that time the People's Republic will have collapsed and China will once again experience a period of Warring states...


By 2017 they'll be struggling just to breathe and get enough to eat. Every bit of technical and engineering resources they've got will be devoted to undoing the horrendous environmental damage they're inflicting now. They're on track for a humanitarian catastrophe like the world has never seen before, and their pace of destruction is steadily increasing.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 00:03:35

Zardoz wrote:By 2017 they'll be struggling just to breathe and get enough to eat.
And if you wanted to take a country of 1 billion people down to a population of 100 million in a decade while building enough nuclear and hydro to provide ample power to that 100 million; exactly how else would you do it?
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 02:09:21

rwwff wrote:
Zardoz wrote:By 2017 they'll be struggling just to breathe and get enough to eat.
And if you wanted to take a country of 1 billion people down to a population of 100 million in a decade while building enough nuclear and hydro to provide ample power to that 100 million; exactly how else would you do it?


You may be onto something. What they're doing now does seem to be suicidal, doesn't it?

Then again, greed conquers all, so they could be just going for every short-term bonanza they can get, just like it appears on the surface.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 03:14:38

Zardoz wrote:Then again, greed conquers all, so they could be just going for every short-term bonanza they can get, just like it appears on the surface.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.


Faced with the mass death they seem to be pursuing , it almost seems more humane to hope they are doing it out of greed. At least with greed, you can bargain, trade, and seek out a more gentle path.

The power of the dream of a unified, technology flush China, can not be overstated. Place no moral boundaries on what you think people might do to achieve that goal.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 05:00:34

Turtle, What planet are you on? Don't you read the media reports about the International Space Station? We are already "sailing through space" there right now, and have been doing so to the moon and back on and off since the late 60's. I recall another plan made by President Kennedy to put a man on the moon. Many people didn't believe it could be done then either. But it was done. The same kind of effort can solve our energy and other problems too.

If you want to believe there is going to be a great dieoff, then be my guest. I think this is a defeatist, cowardly and decadent attitude. Until you and your ilk change this attitude, you are just going to be laughed at by the public. Take a look at the article published recently by the Energy Bulletin. This is what "Peaksters" need to do:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic21414.html
Last edited by Graeme on Tue 27 Jun 2006, 07:20:41, edited 1 time in total.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Doly » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 05:23:19

Graeme wrote:We are already "sailing through space" there right now, and have been doing so to the moon and back on and off since the late 60's.


In fact, no. Voyages to the moon happened exclusively between 1968 and 1972.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 07:18:37

Sorry Doly. You're quite right. I was also thinking (but didn't write about) of the shuttle missions to the space station (and Hubble telescope) which are still continuing.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby oowolf » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 19:31:23

I like to sing this song as i walk along
the highway as RVs, suvs and 18 wheelers roll by
while rotting roadkill stench mixes with the intoxicating
aroma of wild roses and purple clover:

http://www.geocities.com/fang_club/galaxy_song.html

Where are all these drivers going--what are they doing that's so
important--that they kill 900,000 animals a week to get there?

'Futility' by Wilfred Owen:
http://users.fulladsl.be/spb1667/cultur ... ility.html
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby grabby » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 21:05:36

oowolf wrote:
Where are all these drivers going--what are they doing that's so
important--that they kill 900,000 animals a week to get there?


Ah, don't you know?

Shopping, we're alway happy when we're shopping.
We're always happy if we shop until we drop!
In search of bargains we will never stop, stop, stop!
We'll shop and shop and shop, shop, shop!

As far as the eye can see,
There are bargains for you and me,
Shopping will set you free.
Shopping saucily

Shopping sauxily
___________________________
WHEN THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND...GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Using evil to further good makes one evil
Doubt everything but the TRUTH
This posted information is not permissible to be used
by anyone who has ever met a lawyer
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Omnitir » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 01:02:18

There are some very odd beliefs here.

Is it really so crazy and arrogant to want ones own species to survive long term? The same people that claim this, that claim we aren’t worthy of survival, often strongly argue on the need for sustainability. Looking at the big picture, the ultimate in sustainability is utilising space, which means reducing ecological impact on Earth. Investing in space is far more beneficial for long term sustainability then any back to nature ideals can ever be. Arguing that humanity shouldn’t survive but also the need for sustainability is arguing two incompatible ideals. Arguing that we should just let civilisation die is psychotic.

Also, several people here seem to think the only way to develop space is to find another Earth-like planet. What about Earth orbit, the moon, Mars, the massive asteroid belt surrounding the inner solar system? These alone contain resources many orders of magnitude greater then the Earth has ever had. And that is before we even think about leaving the inner-solar system. Even empty space has the potential to provide far more energy then fossil fuels can ever provide.

People here insist that nothing has been happening in space development. We went to the moon a couple of times and that’s it, right? Utterly wrong. We have extensively explored the entire solar system learning a great deal about the massive world around us. We’ve landed satellites on asteroids and studied the composition of these valuable rocks. We’ve peered into the depths of other galaxies and have a greater understanding of the universe we live in. All without wasting money on manned flight.

But of course we’ve maintained manned flights. While we’ve done so with inefficient government bodies that waste money (it could, and will, be done much more economically), we have still made considerable progress. The Space Shuttle project has resulted in a cheap water filtrating system that is cleaning the drinking water of millions of third-world people as we speak. We have learned how to live more sustainably thanks to manned missions, we have learned how to reduce waste, recycle more effectively, how to grow food in space with obvious implications on future developments, we have mastered maintaining low orbits with minimal costs, how to generate sufficient energy without constant resupplies, how to greatly reduce the weight of our space technology reducing launch costs, and how to manage human survival in micro-gravity.

R&D in space has been increasing exponentially. Huge ongoing investments have been made and continue to be from the world over – current worldwide spending on space has increased to over $50 billion a year. NASA alone is expected to sign contracts totalling $400 billion over the next 20 years. The average person not interested doesn’t notice much happening, but in reality space is a major source of economic expansion.

And perhaps most importantly is the private sector. In 1998 the private sector surpassed government investment and the gap is widening. We already have the first private sub-orbital space craft, and soon (next year) Virgin’s fleet of craft will be operational with a long list of paying clients. Private space stations are also in final stages of development, soon to supplement government capabilities and in the years ahead greatly strengthen the booming space industry.

Peak oil doomers have been arguing economics. Take a look at what the oil tycoons have been doing for a hint of what’s to come, correct? Well apply this logic to other areas guys. Take a look at the aerospace industry: massive investment continues to grow and entrepreneurs are investing heavily in what they believe to be a future boom sector. Do you honestly think these guys, some of the most successful business people in the world, are unaware of declining energy reserves? Yet they continue to invest in space.

Profits in the private sector over the next fifteen years are predicted at around $115 billion. All of the worlds space agencies are vigorously developing moon colonisation plans. NASA is promoting prize driven challenges for sustainable space development, similar to those of the early aviation era. It may sound fanciful, especially to people who have undying faith in the end of the modern world, but the fact is it’s happening, and has been for many years.
Profits set to soar in outer space


Oh, and finally, this thread gets the usual response from the technophobic people dismissing anything about space or high technology as the fantasies of Sci-fi geeks. “Utilising space, huh? Were you wearing your Spock ears when you typed that?”
Don’t you realise how disingenuous it is for a doomsday believer to take this argument? Don’t you see that if one accepts this line of reasoning it destroys all of the peak oil arguments?
“End of civilisation huh? Were you wearing your Mad Max road warrior kit when you typed that?”.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 01:28:14

Omnitir, all these dreams of far flung space adventure.... Lets stay focused on the staircase at hand.

1.) lets find some water on the moon. (form, where, and how much)
2.) lets get something up there that can mine and extract said water.

On the space exploration todo list, we need to manage to do those before we can talk about really staying anywhere for long. They are entirely challenging enough on their own.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 01:54:58

Omnitir wrote:There are some very odd beliefs here...


Understanding that there is no air, water, or food source outside of the thin biosphere that sustains us is not a "belief".

None of the things you cited in your post have anything to do with sustaining life for billions of hungry, thirsty bipedal mammals.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Omnitir » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 03:22:09

Rwwff, expanding our operations in Earth orbit and on the moon is hardly “dreams of far flung space adventure”. It’s the sceptics talking about travelling off to distant worlds, not the proponents.
Locating and excavating water from lunar regolith is precisely what current initiatives are focused on, among other things. Does the need for this step, which is certainly being addressed, somehow invalidate the long term goal of achieving sustainability?

Zardoz,
Understanding that there is no air, water, or food source outside of the thin biosphere that sustains us is not a "belief".

It’s is not “understanding” when you are wrong, it’s believing. You believe there is no air, water, or food source capable of sustaining us. This belief is wrong. There is plentiful oxygen on the moon. There is highly probably water on the moon, the asteroids, and on mars. We know for a fact we can grow food in space (in fact we have found that plants grow exceptionally well in micro-gravity). Every element on planet Earth is found in abundant quantities outside of our atmosphere. Learning to utilise these materials goes a long way to sustaining life and civilisation. Learning to see these materials as resources instead of just as rocks is the first step.


None of the things you cited in your post have anything to do with sustaining life for billions of hungry, thirsty bipedal mammals.

Can you honestly say that learning to utilise the resources of space so that one day everything we need could be attained off-world would not have anything to do with achieving sustainability? Do you honestly think that the exponential growth the aerospace industry has been enjoying plays no part in eventually reaching these goals?
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 08:55:45

Graeme wrote:If you want to believe there is going to be a great dieoff, then be my guest. I think this is a defeatist, cowardly and decadent attitude. Until you and your ilk change this attitude, you are just going to be laughed at by the public.


And I should care what "the public," the same glorious entity that twice elected the idiot Bush their leader, thinks about my attitudes? Is the public your idea of a standard to which we should conform?

Belief in a population crash is "decadent"? How about just realistic, and incorporative of basic ecological principles? Dieoff is the way nature deals with populations that grow beyond their resource base. Humans, of course, will be a magical exception, right?

Maybe your denial of a looming population crash is "defeatist, cowardly." It's cowardly to stick one's head in the sand while a great crisis approaches.

It would be far less defeatist to acknowledge the inevitability of a dieoff and do everything we can now to mitigate it.
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Elan_Rasa » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 19:00:45

such gloomy people! nothing but negative vibes man.

ok so PO will be a drag. global warming is a scientific fact, so what. some say that the avian flu, if it mutates, will kill off 100+ million people. perhaps nations will go for the oil grab and start a global nuclear war. granted our leaders are not doing much and primarily protect corporate interests and the economy (globally) will tank.

what was my original point?
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Re: 'The end of the world' has already begun, UW scientists

Unread postby Chicken_Little » Wed 28 Jun 2006, 21:41:49

I'm sure it'll be a great comfort to us as we huddle over our bowls of Soylent Yellow to know that space tourists are flying overhead.
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