[Cyrus]

I've been thinking about the timeframe in which new energies can be instated to replace oil when really needed. Would there be enough time/resources to set up the the millions of winds turbines, solar panels, and biodisel plants?

[gego]

Once we pass peak, on the average there will be less oil available than is demanded. Any conversion to alternatives creates new demands on the existing supply, so where will the oil energy come from to create these solar panels, windmills, etc.? Obviously some demand will not be met. Looks to me like we will be entering a Catch 22 situation.

I tend to think of the big picture which is a world overpopulated by about 5 billion, essentially eating oil. This is not a pretty picture.

[DriveElectric]

I've been thinking about the timeframe in which new energies can be instated to replace oil when really needed. Would there be enough time/resources to set up the the millions of winds turbines, solar panels, and biodisel plants?

Peak Oil is a slow motion crisis. Slow decline over many years. Will we have time? Most likely the answer is yes.

[RonMN]

We would have to make some tough choices. Say there's only x amount of oil...well, do we want to use that oil to produce windmills & solar panels? or do we want to continue driving cars & busses? With x amount of oil we can't do both.

The choice "seems" like a no-brainer...but without cars trucks & busses, our economy stops dead in it's tracks & die-off begins.

[Aaron]

no

[RickTaylor]

I've been thinking about the timeframe in which new energies can be instated to replace oil when really needed. Would there be enough time/resources to set up the the millions of winds turbines, solar panels, and biodisel plants?

The question is unanswerable unless you answer the question "time for what?" Is there time to make the transition to new energies without any bumps or sacrifices? Definitely not. Assuming a great awakening, is there time to respond so that civilization continues even if industrial civilization does not? I hope so.

--Rick Taylor

[MicroHydro]

Not enough time remains. To convert the US to solar photovoltaic electricity would require $40 trillion in panels alone. Never mind the extensive energy storage system required to keep the lights on at night or houses warm in the winter.

Wind is cheaper in theory, but the wind resources of the northern US plains are a long way from power consumers. So you need a miracle in power transmission as well as power storage.

And we haven't even addressed transportation fuels, which is the main use of oil. As many have addressed on this board, even if you had adequate spare electric capacity to generate bulk hydrogen, the infrastructure to transport, store, and use it would take 30 years to build. The time to get smart was ideally 50 years ago, and definitely 30 years ago. Too late now for anything but putting bandaids on the problem.

[Starvid]

Peak oil is a process that will take decades. We will be alright, at worst we get 10-20 years of bad recession.

The poor countries though, it will be a lot rougher for them.

[Jack]

I've been thinking about the timeframe in which new energies can be instated to replace oil when really needed. Would there be enough time/resources to set up the the millions of winds turbines, solar panels, and biodisel plants?

Perhaps we should rephrase the question.

1) Can we sustain the current model of energy usage by transitioning to the above alternatives?

2) If so, how long will it take?

3) If not, how will we modify our usage - and how long will it take to cover the reduced requirements with alternatives?

Short answer - we are in overshoot. We do not have enough time - not even if the mass of people recognized the problem....and they do not.

[aahala]

Assuming we had a reasonable fraction of the annual US defense budget. . .

Solar PV production capacity is growing about 20-40%, but it's extremely small and most likely would be difficult to double or triple the growth rate
within 5 years. The annual worldwide production capacity now is about
1.2G, the US grid in electrical sales is about 434G(24/7) and of course PV solar isn't a 24 hour producer.

You might be able to get up to 2 or maybe even 3% of the grid each year for a while thru wind within 5 years--meaning maybe 15% in 10 years, but
siteing requirements would have to be greatly simplified and the public
would have to stop making objections about wind farms. There are
presently can be a lot of objections -- some justified and some not.

You could probably double or triple ethanol production pretty quickly. The
constraint beyond that is farm land. Present ethanol production takes
most of the Iowa corn crop. That would roughly be 4-6% of current gas usage.

[DriveElectric]

Peak oil is a process that will take decades. We will be alright, at worst we get 10-20 years of bad recession.

The poor countries though, it will be a lot rougher for them.

That seems accurate. The USA requires 20 million bpd of oil to exist as is. Where will is come from after Peak? Likely the poorer countries will not be able to afford it at the higher prices. That will free up supplies for western countries during the decline.

The rich will get an opportunity to transition. The poor will be left to fend for themselves.

Oil flows to those willing to pay for it. That is why there are often gas shortages in oil rich countries. The dictatorships in power often would rather sell their oil to the west than sell it at cheap/subsidized prices to their own citizens.

[Cyrus]

Cyrus wrote:
I've been thinking about the timeframe in which new energies can be instated to replace oil when really needed. Would there be enough time/resources to set up the the millions of winds turbines, solar panels, and biodisel plants?


Perhaps we should rephrase the question.

1) Can we sustain the current model of energy usage by transitioning to the above alternatives?

2) If so, how long will it take?

3) If not, how will we modify our usage - and how long will it take to cover the reduced requirements with alternatives?

Short answer - we are in overshoot. We do not have enough time - not even if the mass of people recognized the problem....and they do not.

I think this is the scenario which I logically believe most. Things like PEMEX declining at 14%, Saudis largly overstating their reserves, stockpiles running low, and large infastructure caused power outages in Moscow tell me that some people here, as well as myself, are being a bit too optimistic. With declines and problems like this, I dont think people's first move will be to invest in alternatives. I hate to sound like a "doomer", but I think we are running out of ways to get out of this.

[Jack]

I hate to sound like a "doomer", but I think we are running out of ways to get out of this.

I suspect that one school of thought regards "doomers" as negative folks who secretly cheer on the oncoming collapse of civilization. Perhaps that perception is true in some cases.

But unless people abandon false hopes and nonsensical approaches, there is no chance - none at all - that changes in policy, budget priorities, and energy usage will be implemented before the wall is well and truly hit.

I think people should ask themselves which scenario leads to a greater potential disaster - the hopeful optimist who, without basis or foundation, anticipates a miracle and fails to plan for alternatives, or the dour doomer who tries to awaken others to the magnitude of the problem.

So please don't say you "hate to sound like a doomer." Rather, wear your dark storm cloud with pride!

[BorneoRagnarok]

Is there enough time ? Enough time for what ?
Of course, there are not enough time to replace at least 50 % of current fossil fuel infrastructure but there are enough time to be prepare for Stone Age way of life with a little modern equipments in the way.

However, the fact that Borneo is covered with forest does help here. I can tell you Stone Age way of life sucks a little bit ( I am a bone head greenies ) but at least you are alived. So I will be the active advocate for Stone Age way of life. Of course, you don't need to throw your computer away. Time will do it for you. Bicycle does help. I am organizing bicycle club for the local community. Currently no single soul joined yet as the road is congested with huge second-hand SUVs from Japan. Almost all bicyclists that Gogota knew killed by those females in SUVs. No made it all of them... If I am not posting here for 3 months , I am mowed down too.

Rainwater collection and changes in bathing method can solve the water problem. Almost all wild plants can be eaten. Of course, it required time to learn new thing . At least modern plastics can help to preserve books from wet weather. Conclusion, enough time to be prepared for Stone Age way of life at least here in Borneo.

Look at what Borneo people done to tree cutters. They cut off 10,000 heads. Hey ! they worshipped jungle like me too. Even university professor in Borneo quit their high paying job to be warlord and environmentalist. Talk is cheap. Death to forest cutters. Sopeak oil means back to Stone Age way of life. Not too bad but continuous working to feed yourself. However, I have get use to it already as last time , we are the sweatshops for US consumers. Now, they moved to cheaper sweatshops in China. Adapt for Stone Age living or died.

"If you destroy the forest there will be violence, anarchy. Everywhere."
(Murai Garang, Dayak shaman and warlord)

In the town of Palangkaraya, Suwido Limin, is a university professor, an environmentalist and a local warlord with 1500 men under his command. We meet him at one of many roadblocks Prof. Limin has organized to stop new migrants from resettling his homeland.

Suwido Limin, director of CIMTROP, the Centre for International Cooperation in Management of Tropical Peatlands, at the University of Palangkaraya.

http://www.insightnewstv.com/d54/

[gego]

How many of you have the funds to convert from nonrenewables to renewables now? Can you come up with the funds to replace your electric meter with any combination of wind, solar, microhydro? Can you afford to insulate your home to the point that you have nil energy costs for heating and cooling? Can you replace your vehicle with something that does not depend on oil, or can you use mass transit?

Even if the technology existed to substitute renewables for nonrenewables (which it does not, or is not sufficient) most probably couldn't afford to do it anyway. The governments of the world are even more broke than you, so they don't have the funds either.

Where is the food going to come from when hydrocarbon based agriculture no longer works? Even if we could come up with sufficient numbers of draft animals (which is doubtful) yields would drop to 1/3 of current production and out of that production 1/3 would need to be fed to the draft animals leaving only 22% of current production for human consumption.

My view is that it is wishful thinking to say we will get by with adjustments in lifestyle, or with a long recession. Once the dam burst there will be a sudden and massive economic collapse. This will likely happen just like a stock market crash only it will be the entire economy and there will be instant shortages. Just like with peak oil the real economic crisis will be caused by the decline in production, not by finally running out completely.

I also think that it is error to think that the "wealthy" countries will suffer the least. Individuals who are most dependent on the collapsing system will suffer most in any country. Countries most dependent on the oil economy will suffer more than countries less dependent. The absolute worst place to be will be big cities in the western world, particularly the USA.

[Starvid]

What do the experts think? Let me quote professor Kjell Aleklett:

- Vi kommer att bli tvungna att anpassa oss, och det kommer vi att klara. Det jag är orolig för är att utvecklingsländerna inte kommer att klara sin energiförsörjning, säger Aleklett.

For those of you who doesn't speak the language of Glory and Heroes (aren't we humble? ) this means:

- We will have to adapt, and we will be able to do that. What worries me is that the developing countries won't be able to meet their energy needs, says Aleklett.

http://www2.unt.se/avd/1,1786,MC=1-AV_ID=405741,00.html

[Starvid]

How many of you have the funds to convert from nonrenewables to renewables now? Can you come up with the funds to replace your electric meter with any combination of wind, solar, microhydro?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis, it is a liquid fuel crisis. We do not have to change our electricty production to renewables. We should do that anyway though, to mitigate global warming.

Can you afford to insulate your home to the point that you have nil energy costs for heating and cooling?

Yes I can, but I do not have to do that since my home is centrally heated with biofuels and trash.

Can you replace your vehicle with something that does not depend on oil, or can you use mass transit?

I do not own any veichle, though I am going to buy an all-electric scooter. There is plenty of mass transit in Sweden.

Even if the technology existed to substitute renewables for nonrenewables (which it does not, or is not sufficient) most probably couldn't afford to do it anyway. The governments of the world are even more broke than you, so they don't have the funds either.

The technology does exist. Ever heard of trains, hybrid cars or nuke plants? Sure batteries have to become 10 times as good to make all-electric cars on the level of current cars possible, but that is not needed. And it doesn't matter if my government is broke or not (which it isn't by the way) since I am not.

Where is the food going to come from when hydrocarbon based agriculture no longer works? Even if we could come up with sufficient numbers of draft animals (which is doubtful) yields would drop to 1/3 of current production and out of that production 1/3 would need to be fed to the draft animals leaving only 22% of current production for human consumption.

Only a rather small fraction of all oil use goes to farming, and food production will of course be prioritized. Market forces will do away with long range food transportation and make it more localized.

As far as I know nothing is stopping us from building hybrid combine-harvesters.

My view is that it is wishful thinking to say we will get by with adjustments in lifestyle, or with a long recession. Once the dam burst there will be a sudden and massive economic collapse. This will likely happen just like a stock market crash only it will be the entire economy and there will be instant shortages. Just like with peak oil the real economic crisis will be caused by the decline in production, not by finally running out completely.

Your view is rather limited.

I also think that it is error to think that the "wealthy" countries will suffer the least. Individuals who are most dependent on the collapsing system will suffer most in any country. Countries most dependent on the oil economy will suffer more than countries less dependent. The absolute worst place to be will be big cities in the western world, particularly the USA.

As a matter of fact rich countries, as always, will be better positioned. When oil goes expensive the rich goes shopping. Oil is subsidized today in many poor countries, something which is likely to end. Oil is by the way heavily taxed in many countries, for example in Sweden we already pay $150-$200 a barrel.