[sparky]

.
@ Rockman , yep if there is no ideology pushing it , ressources are the sore point .
one should note that the US make its export money from
services ....700 billions
farming ..100 billions ,
weapon systems ..1.5 trillions
airplanes .....39 trillions

Machines, engines, pumps: US$205.8 billion (13.7% of total exports)
Electronic equipment: $169.8 billion (11.3%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $131.1 billion (8.7%)
Vehicles: $127.1 billion (8.4%)
Oil: $106.1 billion (7.1%)
Medical, technical equipment: $83.4 billion (5.5%)
Plastics: $60.3 billion (4%)
Gems, precious metals, coins: $58.7 billion (3.9%)
Pharmaceuticals: $47.3 billion (3.1%)
Organic chemicals: $38.8 billion (2.6%)

China is , so far , exporting basic items pretty heavily reliant on manufacturing with a very high fossil fuel footprint .
it could and would change but the top of the tree is much more difficult to reach without changing their society

It seems that beside puffing up their chest there is no major conflict of interest

PS. since it mention China oil supply , armed force and Donald Trump , this could be interesting
an current interview in "der Spiegel" of Donald main foreign policy adviser Mike Flynn, 57,
the former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), has served as a foreign policy advisor to Donald Trump since the autumn of 2015

" Trump Foreign Policy Advisor: 'Americans Are Fed Up With the Bullshit'

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 03192.html

[Sixstrings]

" Trump Foreign Policy Advisor: 'Americans Are Fed Up With the Bullshit'

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 03192.html

Very interesting article, Sparky.

Mike Flynn, 57, the former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), has served as a foreign policy advisor to Donald Trump since the autumn of 2015.

SPIEGEL: General, we are here to say goodbye.

Flynn: Why goodbye?

SPIEGEL: Donald Trump announced that if he wins the election, he will not continue trans-Atlantic relations in their current form. ...

Flynn: He will never give up his style, his way to target his enemies. The Americans are fed up with the bullshit they heard for many years. They want the truth, they want to believe what their leaders are saying again.

That whole thing was quite extraordinary, very blunt questions by Der Spiegel.

The only part I agree with though, is just this:

We have to look at the cost of resourcing the US military around the world. How is that cost incurred, and how is that cost paid for? I'll give you an example. The Chinese get over 40 percent of their oil from the Middle East through the Persian Gulf, but have you ever seen a Chinese aircraft carrier sitting inside the Persian Gulf? For at least 40 years, the United States of America has been guaranteeing Chinese energy supplies. Sitting here today, the US provides funds to, honest to God, 99 percent of the countries on the planet.

We even give North Korea humanitarian aid. We give them food, and God knows what they do with it. They probably feed it to the crooks in the headquarters. This is not about an antagonistic relationship with Germany or NATO. This is about looking and examining what the needs are going forward for the 21st century and who is going pay for it.

*I have said that exact same thing before*, how it's hilarious that it's actually the USA that defends Chinese oil in the middle east.

In a world that makes some kind of more sense, really CHINA should be fighting in the middle east, to keep it stable -- as it is now, we take on all the costs, while China just racks up money -- $3 trillion in gold and foreign currency reserves, right now. And then, China spends money on a military to threaten us with.. while we are in the ME securing oil.. for them.

Militarily, of course, an advantage of the US having control over the ME means we can also SHUT OFF that oil going to China.

And, the ME being a US bloc goes back to the cold war, when the imperative was to keep the USSR from ever being able to take that oil, in the opening stages of WWIII. If there had ever been a WWIII with the Soviets, their first move would have been to try to take the middle east. The Soviets would have needed the oil to fight the war, and also they would have wanted to deny us the oil.

But, maybe all that makes no sense anymore.. because as it is, we're just getting all the grief and China gets the oil, and China also got the contracts in Iraq. Makes no sense.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT.. I'm a bit uncomfortable with the general's views. This is VERY out of the mainstream establishment thinking. This isn't Jeb Bush type of views, at all.

And I have to say, I feel bad for Germany lately. Except on the other hand, it was Merkel that wouldn't listen to W. Bush and Dick Cheney, when they wanted to get Ukraine into NATO. Merkel is a bad leader in a way -- she's not tough enough, even as establishment; if one is gonna be establishment, then one has to be tough establishment. Waffly doesn't work.

But yet, I feel bad for the Germans. They're trying to hold all the establishment order up, all by themselves, lately.

Regarding the general's views -- they are diametrically opposed with the entire establishment, so that's just not Democrat foreign policy establishment, *but also the vast majority of the Republican Party*. In fact, most of the old cold warrior hawks are all in the R party. If Trump were president, I don't think McCain and Lindsay Graham and all of them, could stand it if he were weak on NATO and weak on Russia etc.

EDIT: Whichever path the US goes, we do need stronger leadership on foreign policy. There's two directions to go.. either strong anti establishment (and some very different foreign policy) with Trump, or strong establishment foreign policy with Clinton. She could wind up being a Thatcher-like Iron Lady.

Clinton is definitely a cold war era hawk. She's a Barry Goldwater old school Republican, at her roots.

It's too very different choices, Trump and Clinton..

About this general's thinking; that was quite an interview, he didn't say even one single thing that could make a European feel comfortable. I don't quite like THAT much anti establishment -- he didn't say one thing either, about democracy being important, or east europe. I'd like to hear that Trump cares somewhat, about the basics of east europe not getting run over and a new iron curtain and Russia moving in.

On the other hand -- another issue is that frankly, if only they could get organized, the Europeans have more money than we do. They really could just form their own European Army, and Europe is actually capable of handling Russia, all on its own. It really ought to be EU federal troops in Poland some day. We really can't be there for all eternity, unless we're headed for NATO world government.

Having said all the above, the general's ideas are interesting. Just strategically -- we don't even need ME oil anymore. It really is India and China that buy ME oil, so wtf are still getting dragged down about the ME, for?

It ought to be CHINA in the ME. Let THEM -- and Russia too! -- go ahead and have the middle east. It would be a trojan horse gift, nobody should want that headache. So let them have it. It would bog China down, give their Peoples Liberation Army something to do other than bother us -- let them fight in the middle east, and at the same time we could be expanding our sphere in the Pacific, while China is tied up and bogged down and in a mess in the middle east. That would be some brilliant strategy, there. Let the actual oil customers, start being responsible for the middle east.

The only drawback to this -- is just something like nuclear proliferation. If we gave up on the region, then the Saudis and others may wants nukes. And then maybe Russia and China can't really handle that region (capability wise, they simply can't).. so then nukes spread, war spreads more, then nukes get set off and we get fallout clouds from it.

No easy answers.

[SeaGypsy]

Blah blah blah OMG 6. You need to get it into your skull, your country makes a neat net profit on it's military business. This fact changes the entire premise of this latest rhetoric on repeat.

[Tanada]

Six the claim we have been 'defending' the oil China imports for '40 years' is wildly inaccurate, to put it nicely.

Lets be honest here, China was an oil EXPORTING country until 1993, just 23 years ago. Secondly China until recently did not import much oil even after they stopped exporting. It wasn't until 1999 that they started importing 1 MM/bbl/d compared to many decades of the USA importing more than that.

Third, right up until the USSR dissolved in the early 1990's there was a kind of stand off with the USA supplying KSA and Kuwait while the USSR supplied weapons to Iraq and Iran. It was policy of the USA to support the gulf countries that did business mostly with our NATO allies while it was USSR policy to do business with Iran, on their land border, and its ancient enemy Iraq. A lot of that oil also got sold to Europe simply because oil is a fungible commodity.

While I agree we have suffered from a severe lack of leadership for the last eight years (President Bush was a lame duck his last two years and President Obama believes in leading from behind) that does not mean I take every factoid some political mouthpiece throws out there as gospel truth. You really need to spend a few minutes fact checking what every politician says for accuracy instead of taking it all at face value.

[AgentR11]

On Chinese oil from the ME; I'd suggest a different view. We are defending the purchase of oil in dollars; we don't really care WHO buys it, as long as it is bought with dollars; that's what matters to our financial system. Not whether a car in Houston, or a car in Shanghai ends up burning the oil; that's completely irrelevant.

And as we get ever further extended on this low interest, extremely high volume debt train, keeping a large portion of global trade in dollars (oil, or otherwise) will become ever more important. Its the bubble on which all other bubbles are formed.

[sparky]

.
That's what I've been saying for a long time ,
beside the political and economical benefit of the weapons trade ( your customers pay for your weapon industry R&D )
the world use , pay and invest in those funny green IOU laughingly called "money"
the US NAVY is financed by the quasi slave laborers of Guangzhou .
the West is exporting its carbon footprint and importing sweat !
The largest manufacturing in the US is dollar denominated debt .

A war ..?? why ...? as long as the US denominated bonds are purchased there really is no issue
the whole thing seems like some Japanese NO theater , clashing cymbals , exaggerated gnashing of teeth
while the US death salesmen are touting their wares to the suckers .
Northrop forever , Raytheon to glory .

[Cid_Yama]

President Rodrigo Duterte should pursue bilateral talks with China following the favorable ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration but should keep the United States out of the picture, analysts and former government officials said Thursday.

Former ambassador Alberto Encomienda said the administration should be left to itself to figure out diplomatic ways of resolving the sea row.

Encomienda, who was secretary general of the Department of Foreign Affairs’ Maritime and Ocean Affairs Center during the Arroyo administration, noted that “right after the arbitral ruling came down Beijing issued a statement that it is willing to negotiate with the Philippines. President Duterte also said that he is opposed to going to war.”

“If left to the two (countries), the ruling should not intensify anything. But, if there is foreign intervention, like the intervention of the US in the region, then that is a different situation,” Encomienda pointed out.

He echoed observations that the US “has been intervening too much in this region.”

“Every time we talk about the decision, we refuse to recognize the elephant in the room,” Valdes said. “We refuse to recognize that all of this started because of the influence of another alien power, specifically the United States, on the Philippines to (take) the course that we have taken.”

“This baffles the mind, and we can only conclude that the one that had persuaded us to go to this court is another superpower -- a superpower that has already occupied the Philippines through the EDCA,” he said.

Signed in 2014, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement allows the US greater military presence in the country as well as to use selected local military facilities.

Valdes echoed this view, saying: “This presence of the US in the Philippines is an occupation by a superpower on our sovereign rights.”

He said the South China Sea row “is really a fight between the US and China, and not the Philippines (against China),

Temario Rivera of the Center for People Empowerment in Governance said pursuing bilateral talks with China following the tribunal’s ruling would give Duterte “a practicable way out.”

“There are points of negotiation, including joint exploration or exploitation over the resources within the South China Sea,” he pointed out.

link

Nearly all Filipinos trust President Rodrigo Duterte as he embarked on his term, according to the results of a Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated survey released on Wednesday, July 20.

The results of the nationwide survey conducted among 1,200 Filipinos from July 2 to 8, showed that 91% of Filipinos trust Duterte, while less than half a percent distrust him, and 8% are undecided on whether or not to trust him.

“President Rodrigo R. Duterte begins his stint as the country’s 16th president with an overwhelming majority of his constituents expressing trust in him (91%) and practically no one distrusting him (0.2%). The rest of Filipinos (8%) cannot say if they trust or distrust President Duterte,” Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said.

link

[SeaGypsy]

90% of Filipinos have a woeful understanding of history, hence the trust of Duterte, who shows all the signs of a personality cult demigod.

[Sixstrings]

You really need to spend a few minutes fact checking what every politician says for accuracy instead of taking it all at face value.

He's not a politician, he's a former US Army general and director of the Defense Intelligence Agency:

retired United States Army lieutenant general who served as the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, and chair of the Military Intelligence Board from July 24, 2012, to August 2, 2014.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_T._Flynn

He's just thinking big picture strategy.. oil is a world market actually, but for the most part, China gets its oil from the middle east. More than we do / we really need to. We've got our own oil, and then we've got Venezuela and Mexico and Canadian oil too.

The primary rationale for us being so involved in the middle east, may not exist anymore, when we don't need their oil.. maybe it's the Chinese that should be in the middle east and stepping up and taking all the crap and being in a big mess all the time. It's THEIR oil. They're the ones using it.

So screw it maybe, maybe CHINA should be handed this responsibility -- and then, their Peoples Liberation Army *would have something to do*, other than just bothering us.

Strategically, it's a bit interesting.. maybe we should leave the middle east.. maybe we should hand it to Russia and China and say "have at it, you wanted an empire? Well ENJOY, it's yours now, because this place is impossible."

[ROCKMAN]

Duterte is planning for the joint development of the oil resources using China's dime. Both China and the Phillipines win." And perhaps a little support for the Rockman's latest silly acronym: MADOD...the Mutually Assured Distribution Of Resources. Essentially developing a protocol between the US and China that allows each country to control future resources without a military confrontation. Similar to the MAD protocol between Russia and the US to avoid a nuclead war that neither could "win"

And just like the Cold War the MADOR approach would include pulling as many small actors as possible under each country's tent. Just as it seems the Philippines might be sliding onto China's side of the ledger.

[Sixstrings]

Sorry I got off topic, but that was a good article Sparky linked.

Back to south china sea..

Duterte is planning for the joint development of the oil resources using China's dime. Both China and the Phillipines win." And perhaps a little support for the Rockman's latest silly acronym: MADOD...the Mutually Assured Distribution Of Resources. Essentially developing a protocol between the US and China that allows each country to control future resources without a military confrontation. Similar to the MAD protocol between Russia and the US to avoid a nuclead war that neither could "win"

And just like the Cold War the MADOR approach would include pulling as many small actors as possible under each country's tent. Just as it seems the Philippines might be sliding onto China's side of the ledger.

That's smart thinking, Rock. I like your MADOR theory.

About Duterte though -- actually, from what I've seen following this news, it appears to me that he got brought in line with the US pretty quick. The only foreign officials to have ever even seen Duterte in person, is the US ambassador to the Philippines and this recent congressional delegation.

The senator from Connecticut tweeted that Duterte assured the delegation that no, Philippines won't be talking to China.

Ultimately, the region and Philippines especially, DO obviously need Chinese investment money.. but China has to act right, too. China has to start making things right by Uncle Sam, or China ain't gonna get to play ball. Maybe it'll be a competition instead. It's up to them.

So far, US has made big moves in the pivot to Asia.. the government seems to be serious about it.

Joe Biden Hints At South China Sea Intervention And Expresses Great Affection For Australia
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/07/19/joe-biden-hints-at-south-china-sea-intervention-and-expresses-gr/

[SeaGypsy]

Wrong again 6, Duterte has had at least 3 meetings with Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jinhua. The last was on 7/7, so either he is lying to your government or they are lying to you.

[SeaGypsy]

How about MAGOG Mutually Assured Grant Of Government/ ie. Should the pesky unwashed challenge your righteous leadership, we will all chip in to destroy your country with you.

[Cid_Yama]

That's just it, Six. "US Senator says Duterte days..." not "Duterte says...."

Duterte's actual words, and those of his political allies and Administration are quite different from the Western Media/US meme.

Duterte said, "We will be chartering a course of our own. It will not be dependent on America, and it will be a line not intended to please anybody but the Filipino interest."

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte wants a "conversation" with China on the South China Sea in a bid to work out a "win-win relationship" with the country, presidential spokesman Ernesto Abella said on Friday.

Duterte, who took office on June 30, has said he wants better relations with China and to attract Chinese investment for major infrastructure projects.

Your statement about Duterte getting 'brought in line', implies Duterte has been pressured by the US to tow the US line against the direction he wishes to go. And that you're OK with that.

First, Duterte wants the US out of the Philippine's business, and was angered by what the US did to Arroyo and their country with Aquino III. The US doesn't scare him.

Second, there is no indication that Duterte has changed course one iota, other than Western Media hype, and US propaganda.

Rockman is right, the path most in the interests of the Philippine people is the joint development of the resources with China footing the bill that the Philippines can't afford on their own.

Duterte is well aware of Western oil companies record with host countries, and will not take his people down the path of Nigeria or the indigenous people on the Peru-Brazil border.

Heck, the Philippine people already suffer from the poverty and abuse under previous US domination. The Revolution was not so long ago.

[SeaGypsy]

& Immi & Bongbong Marcos are both billionaire senators, free to galavant around the world, while "drug addicts" are shot dead in the street. Duterte says he will go after corruption, but he ran with Bongbong as his VP mate. The guy is fake & he is selling a lie, that the 2% on drugs are wrecking the country, not the 2% like him who have millions of dollars tucked away.

[Sixstrings]

Wrong again 6, Duterte has had at least 3 meetings with Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jinhua. The last was on 7/7, so either he is lying to your government or they are lying to you.

I must have read some bad reporting, but I read something that said the congressional delegation were the first foreign officials to meet him.

Anyway, I take your word for it, and it's neither here nor there. The Philippine government is on board, they refuse to talk to have talks with China about the south china sea, unless China accepts the court ruling.

[Cid_Yama]

Former President Fidel V. Ramos is inclined to accept the offer of President Rodrigo Duterte to be the country's special envoy to China amid tensions in the West Philippne Sea.

Ramos, known as FVR, said he is set to meet Duterte this weekend to discuss the "mission."

As for his upcoming meeting with the President, FVR said he will seek Duterte's guidelines and "parameters" about the mission.

"From the very beginning, I already said I am very honored. And I said I can do the job. I also requested some guidelines and parameters from the President because that is the way it is. You must give a proper guidance to a subordinate that you want to perform and the mission will be accomplished," Ramos said.

According to Ramos, bilateral talks with China and contingency plans are among the "important things" he will discuss with the President.

Ramos, meanwhile, welcomed the positive statements made by Chinese officials on his possible appointment as special envoy.

Ramos said he will prioritize an approach that will be acceptable to both parties: livelihood or fishing.

But he noted that joint development could have a legal implication.

"We begin with the people's livelihood: fishing. If we agree to joint development, there's a legal restraint there. [Justice] Carpio had made it clear the area around Panatag Shoal, because of the PCA ruling, is ours. The understanding is that we open our hearts to both."

link


So, what is it that the Philipines wants from China? To stop turning back the fishing boats within their own 200 miles exclusive economic zone. Something China can easily agree to. Then they can discuss the joint development of oil and gas resources both inside and outside the EEZ.

Do you people even realize what the ruling by the court actually states? All it says is China cannot claim territory within another nations EEZ. That's all.

The court did not have the jurisdiction to establish maritime delimitations or borders beyond that ruling.

Malacañang clarified that bilateral talks with China are still being considered, after a US senator claimed in tweets that President Rodrigo Duterte had given assurances that negotiations with the Asian giant are out of the picture.

"The Philippines continues along a diplomatic path to fully realize the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) rights granted by the Arbitration Court – engaging in bilateral talks to find mutually acceptable arrangements to RP (Republic of the Philippines), PROC (People's Republic of China); and consulting with our regional allies," said Presidential Spokesman Ernesto Abella in a press release on Wednesday, July 20.

link

[Sixstrings]

Joe Biden in Australia, he says the US is going to keep "laser focused" on the Pacific region, and Biden says America's commitment to military strength is "unparalleled."

When Biden was on the USS John C. Stennis, he told the crew there that the US would be big in the Pacific "for the rest of your lives."

At another event in Australia, Biden said "the fact is that the US is a Pacific power. And it's going to stay a Pacific power."

While in Australia, Biden also talked about how massive and powerful the global superpower US military is, and how it can can project naval and air power around the globe, simultaneously.

He said by 2020, 60% of the US Navy and the USA's most advanced capabilities will be in the Pacific:

US to keep 'laser' focus on region: Biden

Joe Biden says Australia and the United States have built an 'unsurpassed partnership'.

'I am here because that partnership is a living connection between our two countries,' the US vice president told a Lowy Institute-US Studies Centre function in Sydney on Wednesday.

He said the US was 'all in' when it came to the Asia-Pacific region and 'anyone who questions America's dedication and staying power in the Asia-Pacific simply is not paying attention'.

The vice president said it was overwhelmingly in the United States' interest to keep a laser focus on the region.

Mr Biden said the US commitment to military strength is 'unparalleled'.

'We continue to outpace our competitors, spending more on our overall defence than the next eight nations in the world combined,' he said.

'We have the most capable ground forces in the world and unmatched ability to project naval and air power to any and every corner of the globe, and simultaneously.'

Sixty per cent of the US fleet and its most advanced military capabilities would be committed to the Pacific by 2020.

'The United States has kept and will keep a laser focus on the future in the Asia-Pacific.'

It was also in America's interest that Australia 'continue to grow, succeed and prosper', he said.
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/07/20/us-to-keep--laser--focus-on-region--biden.html?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=578f724d04d3012a8355be7d&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Face it, folks. Uncle Sam is back in the Pacific. Let's just all throw some shrimps on the barbie and have a beer.

[SeaGypsy]

Duterte might not be around for very long. China can't just invade his country, but they can kill him. His weekly back & forth to Davao/ Manila is a key vulnerability.

[Plantagenet]

Obama can't even defeat 30,000 ISIS fighters...how the heck is Obama going to defeat 1.3 billion Chinese?