[Aaron]

The struggle for hydrocarbon dominance may well prove to be the ultimate coup de gras that determines the fate of all nations & peoples.

In other words, the winners will have it, and the losers will do without.

Just like any other competition-based human activity...

The problem of course, is this isn't the typical competition, but a much more meaningful race with potentially devastating consequences, as well as rich rewards.

If we believe that our collective hydrocarbon wealth is set to shrink as time passes, and that no alternatives can provide a realistic substitute, then competition for this critical resource will escalate.

The nations which dominate the resource supplies will enjoy the relative prosperity they provide. But much more significant, are the downstream effects of this new energy equation. The more the energy pie shrinks, the larger the have/have not gap grows. Those nations unable to obtain the energy products they need, will fall further & further behind the dominant players. Year after year their energy poverty will grow, & their ability to recover will diminish.

Can there be any doubt that TPTB fully anticipate this circumstance?

To lose the game of hydrocarbon domination, is to be sent to the back of the line... impoverished & impotent.

For the foreseeable future.

Under these conditions, and absent some miracle, the conflicts to come compare to WWII, as crack compares to Sanka.

We are going to fight over who gets left out of the hydrocarbon game. And it's difficult to imagine how we can avoid the coming contest.

Or the terrible consequences this implies.

As I gaze upon my crystal ball, I see a great oil tanker riding in the mists flanked by 12 warships escorting it into port safely.

The only thing I can't see, is if the lettering on the ship is in English... or Chinese.

[Colorado-Valley]

Well, there's a couple of ways to look at this.

One would encompass Matthew Simmons' comment about not wanting to be the one to have to tell China that they don't get to industrialize after all ...

Or the continuing diminuation of the "nation-state" replaced by a small, but powerful, cabal of elites who control the energy, the money and the military. If you're not a member of that global oligarchy, you no longer get to live in the bubble called "modernity."

In that case, most of the people of the world would have to return to "the bush," as the British elites called it in the 19th Century.

[Peak_Plus]

As I gaze upon my crystal ball, I see a great oil tanker riding in the mists flanked by 12 warships escorting it into port safely.

Before trying to envision the entire situation, let's begin with the particulars:

Who are the warships going to be defended from, if the other side doesn't have any oil in the first place? Ok, maybe your scenario fits for the first part of the down slope, but after that? I think the "have" powers will be determined very quickly and the "have nots" won't have much of a chance to do anything about it, at least on the high seas. The "haves", on the other hand, will be very willing to cooperate with each other out of fear of becoming a have not.

[rogerhb]

The "haves", on the other hand, will be very willing to cooperate with each other out of fear of becoming a have not.

You're forgetting about the have mores and also the have moors!

Sounds rather like the alliance building prior to "The Great War" and we know how that turned out. There is alot that makes me think this century will be more akin to the 19th than the 20th.

[seldom_seen]

If we believe that our collective hydrocarbon wealth is set to shrink as time passes, and that no alternatives can provide a realistic substitute, then competition for this critical resource will escalate.

I think it's important to consider that along with this competition for hydrocarbon resources, there will be desperate struggles for every other resource as well. Minerals, forests and fisheries, agricultural land, water etc...

Once the oil starts to slide, humans will try to compensate by mowing down forests, depleting wild game (Zimbawbwe) and fisheries. Burning rainforests for bio-diesel (already in full effect in Malaysia). Digging up vast landscapes for hydrocarbon resins (Alberta).

It will be as one writer put it "the last great rape of nature."

We've done a helluva job destorying the planet with our oil. It's looking like we're going to finish the job as the oil supply wanes. We probably deserve everything we're going to get for being the one species that can clearly predict and forsee our own ecological demise, but continue to choose that path regardless.

[Peak_Plus]

Sounds rather like the alliance building prior to "The Great War" and we know how that turned out. There is alot that makes me think this century will be more akin to the 19th than the 20th.

... exactly. At least after the "have enoughs" have been sifted out. Will China be one of them? For instance. And then comes the new Holy Alliance...

[Carlhole]

[Peak_Plus]

Could you put that in a timeline?!
ie Where's the Chicken and where's the Egg?

[rogerhb]

In the box with Echelon, (NZ is part of that) there is a comment about "Total Info Awareness", I don't think GWB is in on that loop.

[Peak_Plus]

In the box with Echelon, (NZ is part of that) there is a comment about "Total Info Awareness", I don't think GWB is in on that loop.

the box with Echelon?
GWB?
What are you talking about? Less Infospeak would be appreciated...

[shakespear1]

If you want a clue as to how this will look then consider these situations

1) Current changes in Bolivia
2) Control oil/gas production in Colombia by FARC
3) Ecuador and its Indian population battle with take over of natural resources
4) Iraq is showing that it takes a lot of effort to hold fields in your hands and then you really do not have them. Riddled pipelines!!!

etc

The answer is HC independence because to have troops every where is not feasible. Even that take ENERGY

[rogerhb]

In the box with Echelon, (NZ is part of that) there is a comment about "Total Info Awareness", I don't think GWB is in on that loop.

the box with Echelon?
GWB?
What are you talking about? Less Infospeak would be appreciated...

Below the blue box with the word "facism" is a box with the word Echelon, this is a pan-global listening system for various national secret services who share the results. GWB are George W Bush's initials.

I was refering to the fact that the POTUS does not appear to act with "Total Info Awareness", in fact, quite the opposite.

POTUS see The Acronym Thread

[Peak_Plus]

Thanks

[Peak_Plus]

If you want a clue as to how this will look then consider these situations...
Riddled pipelines!!! etc

Yeah, etc - you forgot Nigeria.
Pipelines and inland production provide a huge stumbling block.
And a very good point - in order to look at the future, look at the basic difficulties at the moment. Pretty unimpressive though. Don't you think it will make a massive 1 time polito-mititary explosion? The one left with fuel for his tanks will win the Risk game?

[evilgenius]

This isn't much different than wwII. Then Hitler wanted the Caspian oil. He sought to encircle it but lost at Stanilgrad and in Egypt. No oil and we don't all speak German. The US is going after what is left, so is China, serrupticiously so is Russia. The answer might be as plain as the proverbial nose on your face. If you take away the country that uses a quarter of the resources then the resources stretch a lot farther. I don't think the Chinese think this way. I do think the Russians think this way.

[kochevnik]

In other words, the winners will have it, and the losers will do without.

This is the large pink elephant that no one here at PO.com wants to think about (even me). I don't see how we get out of this without experiencing wide scale nuclear warfare. If I'm a have-not, and my people are suffering greatly, I have very little to lose by dropping a tactical nuke on every oil tanker that passes by my country on the way to the 'haves'. Furthermore the SPR's would make nice targets as well. If I can't have it, neither will you.

[rogerhb]

I wish I could relocate all the way to New Zealand, but here we are.

Fortunately the entry requirements are being ramped up and also the actual cost of getting here will go up. The Lord of the Rings trilogy did us a disservice by reminding the world of our presence.

I do have in the back of my mind the scenario from Neville Shutes' "On the Beach".

[cube]

The struggle for hydrocarbon dominance may well prove to be the ultimate coup de gras that determines the fate of all nations & peoples.

Is this like in the movie "Dune" when they say, "whoever controls the spice controls the universe."

You have it all wrong. Whoever controls gold will become the next world superpower and that will be Switzerland!

[chatool]

I've always "known" that the whole damn thing will go up in (nuclear) smoke some time in the future. PO just greatly shortens the timetable for this.

Shortly after realizing PO is real and happening I found myself thinking what would I do if I was much younger and richer in order to survive. It might be a worthwhile thread in the "Planing For The Future" forum.

This may be also the moment to remind you the term "nuclear winter". English isn't my native tongue and I'm a relatively slow reader in it. It might be a good idea if one of you guys will start a discussion about it.

[Peak_Plus]

The struggle for hydrocarbon dominance may well prove to be the ultimate coup de gras that determines the fate of all nations & peoples.

Is this like in the movie "Dune" when they say, "whoever controls the spice controls the universe." You have it all wrong. Whoever controls gold will become the next world superpower and that will be Switzerland!

No oil? What use will gold be?! Just as useful as fiat currency. Why nuclear? Did the USSR start nuking the world as it collapsed? No. And nobody knew where the keys to the things were. Without oil, most of us will be very "powerless":!: