[GregT]

When hasn't there been a ME war or some other disruption going on at any one time?

Very good point. The ME wars have been going on for as long as 'western imperialism' has been instigating them. When the oil is all gone, I suspect that the wars, and the mass-murdering will come to an end.

[ennui2]

The ME wars have been going on for as long as 'western imperialism' has been instigating them. When the oil is all gone, I suspect that the wars, and the mass-murdering will come to an end.

I suspect you'd be wrong. There's plenty of things for people to fight over there without being able to point the finger at the West, most of them religiously motivated.

(So utterly tired of the 'western imperialism' canard. It's nothing but a convenient devil-made-me-do-it boogeyman.)

[Tanada]

so utterly bored with hollow cynical NYT/BAU platitudes like 'western imperilism is a canard'.

As if 500 years of colonialism and post-colonialism can be simply obliterated by a simple wave of a hand. Tell me ennui, who finally benefits from blood diamonds and child slavery? It ain't the simple bush people. You think you are a moderate but you are simply a stooge for your masters.

Pete calling bush people 'simple' is rather a racist expression don't you think?

[onlooker]

Calling Western Imperialism a canard is like calling Hitler a gentle and benevolent ruler. Yes Pete I am sure Ennui was a good student in school and read all the spurious information in those history classes, those same that paint Christopher Columbus as a good doer and hero or the Indians as blood thirsty savages intent on raping, pillaging and murdering. Some cannot be reached they are too indoctrinated and brain washed.

[SeaGypsy]

Before Anglo American Imperialism, genocide & cannibalism were the way of the world. As much evil as has been done, much relief has been brought. It is not all one way or the other. I'm taking the devil's advocate position because i don't believe in black & white politics & I have seen much positive come of American intervention in SE Asia, despite the depravity of events in the 60's & 70's- horrors & evil were done- probably many millions unforgivable murders committed, but there is now a region of consolidated States where previously were thousands of disaligned tribal regions perpetually tangled in processes conducive to the kind of perpetual tribal warfare seen in the MENA. From my recollection the US lobbied for a Jewish homeland elsewhere than Palestine, offers were available in Latin America & Australia, perhaps the world would be very different had things gone the other way.

[Plantagenet]

Iranian oil minister says Iran is OK with oil at $25/bbl

Iranian-Oil-Industry-Not-Threatened-By-25-Oil-Claims-Minister

There it is. KSA and Russia and Iraq are all pumping full out and now that Iran is free to sell their oil on the world market their very first statement is they also will pump full out even if it drives oil prices down to $25 bbl.

The oil glut just got worse.

[Quinny]

It's not a Canard it's US foreign policy, and unfortunately for the people of the Middle east getting tired of that is not an option!

With a few exceptions the US people seem to celebrate the imperialism and laud the 'exceptional' ability to destroy of your armed forces. These attitudes give your corporatist government carte blanche to pursue it's imperialist agenda.

Accept your culpability!

The ME wars have been going on for as long as 'western imperialism' has been instigating them. When the oil is all gone, I suspect that the wars, and the mass-murdering will come to an end.

I suspect you'd be wrong. There's plenty of things for people to fight over there without being able to point the finger at the West, most of them religiously motivated.

(So utterly tired of the 'western imperialism' canard. It's nothing but a convenient devil-made-me-do-it boogeyman.)

[MD]

The "oil glut" could actually last for quite some time. Demand is broken. We could see excess supply throughout the decline in production.

"shortonoil" predicted this, some time ago, and he is beginning to look quite prescient.

Yeah there could be another spike... maybe. Shrinking odds tho...

[onlooker]

I personally believe that eventually their will be a spike in oil price for the simple reason that Oil it is still such a precious commodity to the world's economy. But the spike will be relative to current prices and not reach the level of $147 we reached. The buyers and consumers could not tolerate that price ever again. Even if somehow we did reach that level again via speculation it would be a short temporary situation.

[vtsnowedin]

The "oil glut" could actually last for quite some time. Demand is broken. We could see excess supply throughout the decline in production.

"shortonoil" predicted this, some time ago, and he is beginning to look quite prescient.

Yeah there could be another spike... maybe. Shrinking odds tho...

Calling demand "Broken" goes too far. After all the world is happily consuming ie. demanding some 92 million barrels a day while producers are pumping 93.7 or some such (I don't have the exact figures at hand.) That is a long way from broken just slightly out of balance. $2.00 gas not raised gas consumption in the US as of yet but it has changed peoples SUV buying habits and those larger vehicles will demand gas at higher rates throughout their ten year useful lives regardless of the gas price.
With the population increase in India and potential economic growth in both India and China as they are it will not take much for the 1.7 million barrels a day to get eaten up or more likely a drop in production due to war or just field decline or rig count drops.
Wait until we are a million barrels a day short of meeting demand and see what happens to the price then.

[Pops]

Yeah, demand growth in the mature economies has been falling since the early oughts.




The big runup in demand was all in our new colonial subjects, they built factories and bought mopeds.

I think that was the payoff of containerization, computation, communication. But that golden age of "post-industrial" growth is now fairly complete. I don't see another big increase in demand happening. Economies might change due to some new tech that even I, in my omnipotence, can not foresee, but it seems likely it won't be energy driven doesn't it?

The shiller PE was around 26x earnings a couple of weeks ago, average long term is 16x. And as I've been saying for a while, we're past due for a correction. China is on a downward slant and we're locked at the hips, so we'll recede together, LOL

I think that is the key now, if or when we are allowed go into recession and the over investments to be written off.

None of us really know how much the tables shifted after the last bailout. I certainly don't, but I think the priority became completely clear if there were ever any doubt, the priority now is keeping the banks solvent and the investors whole. Recessions aren't allowed, zombies multiply, consumption growth remains low.

Don't move fast, the zombies'll getcha

.

[vtsnowedin]

Y

None of us really know how much the tables shifted after the last bailout. I certainly don't, but I think the priority became completely clear if there were ever any doubt, the priority now is keeping the banks solvent and the investors whole. Recessions aren't allowed, zombies multiply, consumption growth remains low.

Don't move fast, the zombies'll getcha

.

You better modify that to "Big" investors. The stock market was basically flat last year and is already down quite a bit this year. Our retirement accounts show a loss on investments for the year with the only gain being last years contributions. Take all the people with 401 Ks and or government held retirement funds and that adds up to quite a loss and all you will get is a "Win some and lose some " reply. It is high time that stock brokers and fund managers (CEOs as well ) were compensated only as a percentage of their customers net gains.

[Pops]

Yeah you're right.
I usually say "owners" as there are few savers any more, mutual funds cleaned those accounts out decades ago.

[ennui2]

There will continue to be momentary price oscillations. However as those oscillations stabilize to the mean we will forever approach a state of production/price equibrium that will finally truly be meaningless. It will signal the exit from the Fossil Fuels Era.

prices go up? PEAK OIL.
prices go down? PEAK OIL.

In other words, head up, tails I win, tails up, you lose.

Sorry, the logic doesn't wash. You have to do better than that.

[onlooker]

Sorry Ennui if that does not conform to "your" definition of Peak oil. But price fluctuations is the recognized manner that peak oil is supposed to play out as demand and supply as like for anything tends to try and find an ideal balance even while depletion relentlessly continues. They're is nothing particularly controversial about all this. Oh and did I use the "their, they're, there" in a correct way?

[ennui2]

As if 500 years of colonialism and post-colonialism...

Says the man coddled behind his redwood forest. Why don't you go join the peace corp if your guilt runs so strong?

[ennui2]

price fluctuations is the recognized manner that peak oil is supposed to play out

Which was only added to the peak oil bible after oil prices tanked and everyone stopped listening to peakers.

And as for your grammar, no, you used their instead of there again, and then you used they're where you should have used there. While it's possible for someone with awful grammar to still be able to think rationally, it gives off a bad impression to make these chronic grammatical errors, especially after being alerted to them.

What I'll do in the future is bold your mistakes anytime I quote your writing but I'm not going to reply just to highlight your grammatical errors. Hopefully by bolding them you'll at least become aware of how frequently you do this.

[Newfie]

When I s poke of a ME war I was thinking of a war that seriously disrupts the oil flow. Takes a lot of wells or refineries out of production. Not the edge stuff going on now. Sort of what Gasmon was talking about above.