[GoghGoner]

To combine permanent and agriculture in one word doesn't seem very logical. I think it more like a religion, too. On a long enough timescale, nothing is sustainable even time itself.

[careinke]

To combine permanent and agriculture in one word doesn't seem very logical.

It started as permanent and agriculture, but quickly (~late 70's) changed to Permanent and Culture because it encompasses so much more than just growing food. It is a design science that combines different elements and functions so they capture maximum available energy with no waste.

I liken it to distributed science. One person tries something and if it works, he spreads the word. Then 1,000 other people try it, or variations, and report their results. Both successes and failures are valued equally because both provide actionable knowledge.

Several technologies make this possible, probably the most important is the internet. You tube, Podcasts, and forums like this democratize knowledge at the grassroots level, completely bypassing national governments.

Crypto currencies like Bitcoin will soon do the same for "money." It decentralizes currency and makes central banks irrelevant. An anarchists dream.

Also, a nod needs to be given to portable electric fencing and solar powered fence chargers. They allow with very limited investment to animals that regenerate rather than degrade soils.

In permaculture, sustainability is basically an energy audit. To be sustainable, a system must produce enough energy to replace itself for the entire life of the system. Sustainable is not the goal though. The goal is beyond sustainability, because you also want a yield or there is no point in doing it.

I am a doomer, but rather wallow in despair, I do what I can. Oh, and I'm having a blast. The next couple of decades are going to be truly interesting times, but there is hope for some. Those that get off their ass and actually do something.

[DesuMaiden]

I guess it is only inevitable that billions of people will die once oil becomes too expensive to afford? Let's just hope I'm not one of the people who dies from this die-off.

[Shaved Monkey]

The long pig burger chain will be able to feed the world sustainably.
If you dont like the idea of red meat add a crayfish farm into the loop.
Anything else will fail because it doesn't address the if you can feed them you will breed them dilemma.

[Shaved Monkey]

They like rotten meat
A bit of Western Australian folklore/probably true is if you want to dispose of a corpse you tie it to some stove parts(easily accessible heavy cast iron) and feed the crays. (cray bait).

I also remember Bill Mollison joking (probably a bit serious too) talking about turning ground floor apartments or the car parks into cray farms as a sustainable solution to get rid of the bodies as solution to feeding the survivors after rising sea levels.

[DesuMaiden]

The only reason there is 7 billion people on this planet is because of oil. If you take the oil away, then the population must also go away. There hasn't been a single instance where a population overshoot isn't met with a population die off later. This is a law as fundamental as thermodynamics of gravity. It doesn't matter if it is a population of bacteria in a petri dish or a population of caribou on an arctic island. When the population exponentially increases because of favorable conditions and then the favorable conditions are taken away, the population will crash and decrease rapidly.

The same rule applies to human population. Once there are insufficient oil supplies to meet the demand of the human population, there will be a population crash or die off. Billions of people will die of starvation, as there will no longer be sufficient fossil fuels to produce sufficient amount of food for them.

[Pops]

As usual the real reasons are a little more complex. Total population increased because the mortality rate fell faster than the birth rate.



But the reasons for that are more involved than simply oil powered traction and fertilizer. A lot has to do with the discovery of germ theory, public sanitation and antibiotics and vaccines rather than just more food. Granted, the time to investigate and discover those ideas was aided in great part by energy slaves taking over some of the jobs we had previously done ourselves, but regardless, those genies aren't going back into the bottle in some overnight slate wiper.

As that diagram illustrates, it is entirely likely that continuing declines in the birth rate could in fact cause the population to naturally decrease. Not a great plot for a disaster flick tho ...

[MonteQuest]

The only reason there is 7 billion people on this planet is because of oil.

Food for thought:

We see reports that "we must increase food production to feed a growing population."

It should read, "we have a growing population because we did feed it." Oh, my!

Nothing grows without an input of energy, humans or otherwise.

[MonteQuest]

As that diagram illustrates, it is entirely likely that continuing declines in the birth rate could in fact cause the population to naturally decrease.

Naturally decrease? The only way exponentially growing populations "naturally" decrease is by food scarcity or increased predation. Humans aren't exempt.

The declining birth rate is due to decreased fertility rates as a result of Demographic Transition fueled by cheap, readily available fossil fuels.

With peak oil, the standard of living in Africa and other developing countries is not going to go up like it did here and elsewhere in the west over the last 50 years. They won't see urbanization, better birth control, better education, better health care, emancipation of women...everything that Demographic Transition brings which leads to a declining fertility rate, and consequently, a lower birth rate.

Otherwise, I totally agree with everything else you said, Pops.

[Lore]

I agree, if anything we will see higher birth rates in the future along with greater infant mortality.

[DesuMaiden]

The only reason there is 7 billion people on this planet is because of oil.

Food for thought:

We see reports that "we must increase food production to feed a growing population."

It should read, "we have a growing population because we did feed it." Oh, my!

Nothing grows without an input of energy, humans or otherwise.

Yeah but without oil, we wouldn't be able to feed 7 billion people. Sure, the discovery of germ theory, antibiotics and vaccines decreased death rates and increased the population too, but without oil, none of those discoveries would have happened. Oil was the biggest reason for the increase in population during the past two centuries.

[vtsnowedin]

As that diagram illustrates, it is entirely likely that continuing declines in the birth rate could in fact cause the population to naturally decrease.

Naturally decrease? The only way exponentially growing populations "naturally" decrease is by food scarcity or increased predation. Humans aren't exempt.

Humans are not yeast, we could choose a better path.

The declining birth rate is due to decreased fertility rates as a result of Demographic Transition fueled by cheap, readily available fossil fuels.

With peak oil, the standard of living in Africa and other developing countries is not going to go up like it did here and elsewhere in the west over the last 50 years. They won't see urbanization, better birth control, better education, better health care, emancipation of women...everything that Demographic Transition brings which leads to a declining fertility rate, and consequently, a lower birth rate.

Africa has seen a lot of that demographic transition but religion is resisting a complete transition. They are perhaps doomed to overshoot and crash while the west looks on and waits for the dust to clear.

[DesuMaiden]

Food for thought:

We see reports that "we must increase food production to feed a growing population."

It should read, "we have a growing population because we did feed it." Oh, my!

Nothing grows without an input of energy, humans or otherwise.

Yeah but without oil, we wouldn't be able to feed 7 billion people. Sure, the discovery of germ theory, antibiotics and vaccines decreased death rates and increased the population too, but without oil, none of those discoveries would have happened. Oil was the biggest reason for the increase in population during the past two centuries.

You and Monte already said the same several times. Monte did not disagree, rather he presented you with the converse of your categorical or implicational statement. Got it? Yet?

Yeah I get it.

[MonteQuest]

Yeah but without oil, we wouldn't be able to feed 7 billion people. Sure, the discovery of germ theory, antibiotics and vaccines decreased death rates and increased the population too, but without oil, none of those discoveries would have happened. Oil was the biggest reason for the increase in population during the past two centuries.

On the contrary. Oil was first drilled in the US in 1859. Germ theory was discovered in 1865. It wasn't until 1850 that the world population reached 1 billion. Germ theory and increased sanitation decreased the death rate during the age of coal, resulting in an explosion of the population. Without oil, this population growth would not have been sustained.

[MonteQuest]

Humans are not yeast, we could choose a better path.

So, we are above the laws of nature that govern every other living thing? It's hubris like that that is part of the problem. The indian distrusted the whiteman, not because he spoke with a forked tongue, but because he was presumptuous. He presumed he could improve upon nature. The indian knew better.

So far, the path we have chosen is exactly that of any other organism ...the freedom to breed.

Africa has seen a lot of that demographic transition but religion is resisting a complete transition.

The hurdles according to the literature:

1. Early marriages;
2. Limited use of contraception;
3. High demand for children due to tradition, religion and high infant mortality;
4. Formulation and implementation of a multitude of programmes as well as involvement of a
large number of institutions in population activities without effective co-ordination;
5. Persistence of customs and ancestral beliefs favouring large families, early marriages, and
polygamy;
6. Need for more children to assist in food and livestock production;
7. Low level of education and limited access to health facilities due to inadequate infrastructure;
and
8. Lack of integration of population factors in development planning.

[DesuMaiden]

Yeah but without oil, we wouldn't be able to feed 7 billion people. Sure, the discovery of germ theory, antibiotics and vaccines decreased death rates and increased the population too, but without oil, none of those discoveries would have happened. Oil was the biggest reason for the increase in population during the past two centuries.

On the contrary. Oil was first drilled in the US in 1859. Germ theory was discovered in 1865. It wasn't until 1850 that the world population reached 1 billion. Germ theory and increased sanitation decreased the death rate during the age of coal, resulting in an explosion of the population. Without oil, this population growth would not have been sustained.

You are right. Better hygiene via germ theory, antibiotics and vaccines increased the survival rate of infants. Before better hygiene, 25% of babies died before they reached 1 years old. Another 25% of children died before the age of 10. So basically 50% of all children born died before the age of 10 before better hygiene came along.

Of course, the addition of oil meant that the world population could grow even faster. It was a combination of better hygiene and OIL that allowed the world population to explode during the past 1 1/2 centuries.

By the way, the world reached 1 billion people in 1804 and not 1850s. By 1850s there was already more than a billion people on Earth.

[MonteQuest]

You are right.

I do my homework before posting. I suggest you do the same. On this issue, you are talking to Noah about the flood.

[MonteQuest]

By the way, the world reached 1 billion people in 1804 and not 1850s.

Depends on which link you click on in a google search.