GoghGoner wrote:from Kazakhstan wrote:rockdoc123 wrote:yes, with Kashagan finally set to start producing at high rates the Kazakh story is worth revisiting.
May be... We'll know soon, I guess)) Kazakhstan will start opening wells at Kashagan oil field in a few days, but the official start will be resumed on October 23.
Launch of oil production at Kashagan field may provoke a crisis of proposal on the oil market and frustrate growth of prices.
Every month world demand grows by 100 kbd which is what the low range of the estimates are for this field in 2017. Now, if it was 300 kbd thrown on the market immediately there would definitely be a lower price for a short time but if demand is growing, this isn't a game changer. US consumption is 400 kbd over last years level and supply is down over 800 kbd since it's monthly peak. That right there is a difference of 1.2 mbd off the global market.
Welcome to the site. Always good to see somebody from Kazakhstan.
Hello,
to everybody from Central Europe... this above would be only if Kazakhstan would be directly (and almost only) connected to the US oil market, like Canada.
But since the price dropped the OPEC tried to kill US and Canadian projects (Shale Oil and why not also Shale Gas, Fracking, Horizontal drilling, drilling at all since it was said US shale oil in Bakken needs 50$ to run without loss and Canada needs even 70 US-$ for Alberta non-conventional which makes up the majority for a longer period already, much conventional or just heavy crude in Alberta too, but production is declining since the Oil Sands with their unbelievable reserves were easier than hard to find and drill conventional fields.
OPEC said after flooding the market and bring it down (the US and Saudi-Arabia brought down the Soviet Union or at least made the process much faster, Soviet Union western currency income in 1985/86 was only around ~16 billion US-$. This was much more 30 years ago but still only an average Forbes 100 company income. Than the famous OPEC quota came and reserves increased over night often, all together I think far over 100 billion barrels were added to get better quotas. But also in 1973 Libya did a over night production cut from ~3.2mbpd down to the average of 1.0 - 1.4mbpd until this day, they produced in peace time often less than its neighbor Algeria. Just that Libya has 4 times as high reserves and even larger ressources. But a so small population, the 2000's BRIC boom, no need to invest and climb to over 2 or even 3 million barrels again.
OPEC planned the US/Canadian production to reach a critical point in April or May 2015! This did not happen yet and most members are in financial troubles. They even retook a over 50% net importer in December 2015 with Indonesia and in June 2016 another old member with Gabon. Both left, Gabon in 1994, I don't know why. Maybe they did not wanted any quotas anymore or so, Indonesia left because it said it is now a large importer, and this became even worse. Even Russia was invited to join the OPEC but rejected - I would too being Putin.
I think OPEC does not care if export or import, they want as much production in "their hands", and have a growing oil market to export since Indonesia will only import OPEC oil in the future I guess. Production is falling, demand is slowly rising.
I only see 2 scenarios for Europe/US. Both are not good for OPEC or Russia.