[DrBang]

Welcome James. Lots of good info here and lots of people who know their stuff.

Happy reading, look forward to your contributions.

Kind Regards

Dr Bang

[DrBang]

Hello Rob,

Welcome!

Kind Regards

Dr Bang

[blukatzen]

Welcome James, it's always good to see new faces, as it's a way to guage how new folks are understanding the issues at hand.

How did you receive your insights towards these issues?

Blu

[Optimist is Realist]

Some advice for men who worry about the next million years, the sun dying out, human extinction, a final battle between good and evil, a dystopian future:

Think of it this way:

You can waste time worrying about peak oil, or preparing for a doomsday scenario that will never occur. Be a loner and worry about the next million years, the sun dying out, human extinction, a final battle between good and evil, a dystopian future. Fall behind in life and be a grumpy person that no one wants to be around. Get all defensive and angry whenever anyone tells you to lighten up and be hopeful. Cry yourself to sleep at the prospect of not having a large horde of treasure. Secretly desire the whole world to go up in smoke in a huge final battle. Live a monastic life playing video games like World of Celibacy...I mean, Warcraft. Complain about the good weather. Space out by worrying about life in 9000 AD while something on the oven range burns. Get a Hubbert's peak tatoo for $500. Experience feelings of envy when learning about the lifestyle of Homo Erectus. Complain about the discovery of agriculture. Each morning, stay in bed longer than you have to. Accuse everyone else of not being serious enough. Complain about women being too strong. Spend much time browsing for great tales of upcoming doom on the Internet. Whine about how bad everything is and try to convert people to this mess of a worldview through streetcorner preaching and propagandistic movies.

OR

You can
1. Find a beautiful, strong and intelligent woman that has a good sense of humor.
2. Marry her and begin ^@#$% on a regular basis, as a loving couple.
3. Have several kids and instill them with the right values. Make this a lifelong project.
4. After your death, these children, who will resemble you, because you live on in them, will take up the challenges that face them, and make progress in answering the big questions that you struggled with.
ALSO DO THIS AT ALL TIMES:
1. Learn every kind of learning, from the experts and sages, from friends and books.
2. Take good care of your health and exercise.

[Ferretlover]

[smilie=XXsunsmile.gif] I'm here to combat environmental doomerism and pessimism. --snip-- Please stop crying about your (supposedly) threatened American suburban lifestyle and go for a walk and appreciate the beauty of nature, men, go meet a wonderful woman and have a nice day.

Thank you for sharing your views; however, this site is about Peak Oil and its ramifications on the present and the future.

[smallpoxgirl]

I'll take a hit of some of that stuff.

This is what happens to Seattle people when the sun comes out. Just wait till December. He/she will be a disgruntled doomer.

[Ferretlover]

I'll take a hit of some of that stuff.

This is what happens to Seattle people when the sun comes out. Just wait till December. He/she will be a disgruntled doomer.

Have lived there, done that.

[Optimist is Realist]

Heyyyyyy... the blondes replied!

YEESSSSS!

By the way, i know this board is for discussing RAMIFICATIONS and DOOM, but what about if Armageddon will never come? Will you burn me at the stake for saying this? Shoot the messenger unless he brings bad news!

Women tend to be less gloomy than men, so grumpy men need to pair up quickly and joke around with their lass, and have a good time. This was the message I was trying to convey in my satirical second post. Sorry if I offended anyone with my optimism.

Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.

[TheDude]

I'll take a hit of some of that stuff.

This is what happens to Seattle people when the sun comes out. Just wait till December. He/she will be a disgruntled doomer.

Was going to say. Here in West Oregon though it's the lamest summer ever, about a week's worth of bright shiny days so far. Maybe Mr. Microsoft here has snapped?

By the way, i know this board is for discussing RAMIFICATIONS and DOOM, but what about if Armageddon will never come?

Armageddon has arrived. This is what she looks like:

Will you burn me at the stake for saying this? Shoot the messenger unless he brings bad news!

We'll just poke ya in the ribs. We have a pie-eyed optimist member from your neck of the woods, maybe you can hook up for a chai or whatever it is you bits of zombie breakfast fodder like to sip.

[eastbay]

Heyyyyyy... the blondes replied!


Women tend to be less gloomy than men, so grumpy men need to pair up quickly and joke around with their lass, and have a good time.

In understand our society is laced with racism and sexism, but please listen up:

First, we strongly discourage racial jokes and commentary around here. Your reference off-handedly demeaning to the cognitive ability of those with any racially unique physical characteristic will result in harsh rebukes from many here.

Second, sexist generalizations are also discouraged.

Just a quick bit of friendly advice.

[Vogelzang]

Welcome to PO. Oil went to $147 a barrel because of speculators, an inefficient futures market and the falling dollar. The peak of conventional oil production is at least 2040 or later, because of advances in technology. Also, there's more than twice as much heavy oil and extra heavy oil combined compared to conventional oil. M. King Hubbard didn't take into consideration technological developments, his prediction of a peak at the year 2000 is inaccurate. There's too much oil on the market now and a lot of production has shut down. Enjoy the party while it lasts and it will last for another couple of generations at least. A lot of the people here are leftwing control freaks. Just enjoy hurting their feelings and make them look bad and don't forget to vote Republican!

[DantesPeak]

Welcome to PO. Oil went to $147 a barrel because of speculators, an inefficient futures market and the falling dollar. The peak of conventional oil production is at least 2040 or later, because of advances in technology. Also, there's more than twice as much heavy oil and extra heavy oil combined compared to conventional oil. M. King Hubbard didn't take into consideration technological developments, his prediction of a peak at the year 2000 is inaccurate. There's too much oil on the market now and a lot of production has shut down. Enjoy the party while it lasts and it will last for another couple of generations at least. A lot of the people here are leftwing control freaks. Just enjoy hurting their feelings and make them look bad and don't forget to vote Republican!

I predicted [on PO.com] in 2007 that the price of oil would reach $146 in 2008, and in early 2008 I predicted the GNP in the US would drop 6% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Those predictions were based upon the impact of peak oil and Federal Reserve policy. It has almost nothing to with speculators. Granted the Federal Reserve policy results in various movements in the US dollar, but the value of the dollar is based upon the Fed and the US economy, and not visa versa.

As for the future, it's quite bleak. We will be lucky to have three more years of normalcy in the US.

[DantesPeak]

High $146 Low $78 Close $122

What will happen in 2008 is harder to predict than the last few years. Oil demand in the US appears to have leveled off as prices approached $100, but demand may pick up some if prices fall back some.

Demand growth from Asia doesn't look like it will slow down, and supply will struggle to stay where it was in 2007 - and will only fall slightly. Still declining EROEI worldwide will subtly act to keep pushing prices higher even though net demand in 2008 will increase at a slower pace than in 2007.

Any wars in the Mideast/Asia will totally blow our price predictions up - prices could near $200 in the event, for example, of a bombing of Iran's new nuclear plant.

I don't view the ongoing mortgage related credit bubble collapse as deflationary throughout 2008, but a surprise bankruptcy at a financial company might be the reason we could temporarily see a sharp drop in the price of oil.

http://peakoil.com/post574095.html?hilit=price challenge 2007#p574095

[Optimist is Realist]

"As for the future, it's quite bleak."

Whatever floats your boat. Europe and America are the most advanced nations in the world. They cannot experience famine and total breakdown of rule of law. Where is the threat of war between European nations or between American states? There is none. Driving a small car or using public transportation is not "quite bleak" in my book. Neither is spending 20% of one's income on food as compared to today's American average of 13% a cause for doomerism and gloominess.

I could see peak oil/the recession limiting people's purchases of SUV's, McMansions, and the like, but not ending civilization, leisure time, rule of law, higher education, normal family size, food on the table, or survival. This is doomsday paranoia, like:

1033 (panic because of 1000 years since crucifixion)
1938 (War of the Worlds)
1950s (atomic bomb shelter craze)
1970s (Environmental doom, think Paul Ehrlich)
2000 (Y2K computer panic)

2005-2012 (peak oil, large Hadron collider, Mayan calendar, collapse of America, the usual religious stuff)

FROM http://phobias.about.com/od/phobiaslist/a/doomsdayphobias.htm

Treating Doomsday Phobia

If you have a doomsday phobia, it is important to seek professional help. The phobia is treatable, but can worsen over time. Cognitive-behavioral therapy is a popular treatment for doomsday phobias. The goal of this type of therapy is to help you replace your fearful self-talk with more positive messages... (American Psychiatric Association).

[Optimist is Realist]

For those of you who must believe in an imminent doomsday, you can still be the smiling optimist, with the right Weltanschauung.

[DantesPeak]

Good call Dante. Have a link?

We are already knee-deep in Peak-Earth.

I originally predicted 4% then changed it to 6%. Sorry. But I stated many times oil would see a late 2008 plunge due to economic conditions.


http://peakoil.com/economics-finance/ho ... ter%202008

In addition to future after the fact downward revisions to the first half GDP figures, I look for a 2% annualized decline in the third quarter and a 4% rate in the fourth.

There is a small possibility that hyperinflationary crack-up boom could start as early as the second half of this year. In that unlikely case, we would see the economy hold its head above water while wholesale price increases continued to soar.

I guess bleak would mean to me unemployment of 15% with another 10% underemployed. But even then there will probably be many who haven't adjusted their lifestyle much if at all. Those with fixed retirements plans and who own their home with no mortgage.

As far as a collapse of the US, I never predicted something like that anytime in the near future (next three years). I suggest to everyone they should restrict themselves to what is actually being said, and not confuse me with someone else.

BTW - Why don't you cornies make some specific predictions?

[Optimist is Realist]

Some of you may have left the theater early, but MAD MAX WAS FICTION:

The events depicted in this movie are fictitious. Any similarity to any person living or dead is merely coincidental.



Mel Gibson...What Women Don't Want.

They'll make a Mad Max video game for 2012, and I'll be playing it care-free, in my comfortable abode with a huge plate of nachos. I hope you will too.

[DantesPeak]

They'll make a Mad Max video game for 2012, and I'll be playing it care-free, in my comfortable abode with a huge plate of nachos. I hope you will too.

You can do better than that.

How about something? Give us a prediction of the price of oil and economc growth over the next year, due to improving technology and optimism.

[Optimist is Realist]

Ok, so I was having fun with a more extreme view of doom than many here expect, but there are still many gloomy people that are getting all stressed out about nothing.

Here are my gloomy predictions:
Americans will continue to put too way too much emphasis on material wealth.



Humorless doomers will continue wringing their hands over nothing.



Obesity will continue to be a major public health concern in America and Europe.


Gas prices: less than $5 a gallon (WA state)
Unemployment: under 15% (government figure)

[DantesPeak]

I'll take a hit of some of that stuff.

I'm going to be needing some of that stuff after this.