Darian S wrote: Production at practically all locations has peaked and is on the decline. Demand has not only to peak but to contract fast. And that fast contraction has to occur thanks to replacements rapidly coming in not collapse scenario.
There is no move to nuclear at large scale. Batteries havent advanced by order of magnitude. And neither coal nor renewables can currently scale to produce enough additional electricity massively replace oil with electric vehicles.
Doomers endlessly braying about a supposed trend over a few months or so, and claiming we have peaked, doom will follow, etc. have been continuously wrong for several decades.
Let's give it some time for some perspective and some more solid trend data, and see if we even HAVE peaked, shall we?
Then, if in say 5 years, it's obvious we have peaked, we need to look at the situation. If oil prices have risen a lot and are staying persistently high (indicating a probable supply problem/shortage), THEN expressing the sort of concerns your bringing up will make plenty of sense.
OTOH, even if a (at least short term) global peak is evident, unless prices are high enough to indicate a shortage, SO WHAT? It could be a demand peak re the global economy, or a shift to more electrified transport, for example.
It's ONLY a real concern IF a chronic shortage, relative to global demand occurs, AND is persistent. Unless I'm missing one, that hasn't occurred since the 70's oil embargo by OPEC, and that was from suppliers withholding supply -- NOT any kind of "we can't produce enough to meet demand" issue.
(Brief spikes from various geopolitical concerns excepted, of course.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.