[NevadaGhosts]

I have been keeping close watch on the news these past few months. Seems that we may have hit our growth limit as a country, and a decline now seems imminent. I don't think there are enough well paying jobs for the enormous amount of college graduates coming into the field (more and more jobs are being sent overseas). The Fed (Greenspan) is raising interest rates again. Massive layoffs in large corporations. Major airline bankruptcies. There is now much talk that the US dollar will collapse. Social Security and Medicare are bankrupt. We are on the road to war with Iran (maybe?). Then calculate the quickly rising oil prices that are damaging the economy and the stock market. To top all of this off, peak oil is coming soon. It really seems that the US is in serious, serious trouble. Looks like the growth is finally stalling out. Without growth, there is no capitalism. And without capitalism, there is no USA (as we know it).

[Rembrandt]

If that happens probably Martial Law (or some form of it) will be implemented in the USA.

[Jack]

Sure. The U.S. is in trouble - and, worse yet, the U.S. consumer market is the engine that drives the rest of the global economy. That's why China buys our rather questionable debt, to subsidize our purchases of their goods.

I think we're in for a bumpy ride. And continual warfare, with martial law at home, is likely.

[Colorado-Valley]

I generally agree with you, Nevada, I've been paying a lot of attention to the news too.

It seems like the military contractors, corporations and the wealth class are looting the U.S. Treasury for all they can get right now. Maybe they know something that we don't, and are busy grabbing what they can before the money's all gone.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to look back and see that America as a country peaked out in about the year 2,000, and then began its long decline.

Whether this is good or bad, I don't know.

[BabyPeanut]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/23/business/23wall.html

Two Big Investment Banks Report Drops in Quarterly Profit

Published: September 23, 2004

By Reuters

Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns posted drops in quarterly profit yesterday, surprising some investors one day after two other big investment banks reported a rise in earnings.

Morgan Stanley said that profit dropped by a third on lower bond trading revenue, weak equities results and higher expenses, falling short of Wall Street's low expectations and causing its shares to fall.

Net income fell to $837 million, or 76 cents a share, in the fiscal third quarter ended Aug. 31, down from $1.27 billion, or $1.15 a share, a year earlier.

The results disappointed investors after surprisingly strong results at Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers had given some investors hope that Wall Street would find a way to navigate difficult markets.

Morgan Stanley's chief financial officer, David Sidwell, told reporters that a rally in bonds this summer caught the firm off guard, hurting its fixed income and currency businesses.

The investment banking business made some gains in the quarter, with Morgan Stanley maintaining lead rankings in equity and equity-linked underwriting and in global initial public offerings. Still, banking income fell 20 percent, to $783 million, as the overall market shrank.

Shares of Morgan Stanley fell $3.66, to $48.72.

Morgan Stanley also disclosed that it reached a preliminary agreement with the New York Stock Exchange over failure to comply with prospectus delivery rules, employee misuse of funds and other matters.

The stock exchange confirmed that the company would pay a $19 million fine and face censure.

Bear Stearns posted fiscal third-quarter net income of $283.3 million, or $2.09 a share, compared with $313.4 million, or $2.30 a share, a year earlier. Last year, third-quarter profit included a gain of 38 cents a share from an investment.

Net revenue rose 3.3 percent, to $1.53 billion, but revenue in the capital market division fell 1.7 percent, to $1.2 billion.

Bear Stearns raised its quarterly dividend by 25 percent, to 25 cents a share. Its shares fell $2.14, to $87.95.

[BabyPeanut]

http://www.cincypost.com/2004/09/23/bake092304.html

Twinkies maker files for Chap. 11

Staff and wire report

Interstate Bakeries Corp., the nation's largest wholesaler baker whose products include Twinkies and Wonder Bread, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Wednesday. The company also named a new chief executive.

The electronic filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Missouri in Kansas City listed assets of $1.626 billion and liabilities of $1.321 billion.

The company said it had a commitment, subject to bankruptcy court approval, from JP Morgan Chase Bank to provide $200 million to pay suppliers, employees and other operating costs during the reorganization. It said it would continue operating its bakeries, outlet stores and distribution centers.

James R. Elsesser, who had been chairman and chief executive officer, resigned both positions effective Wednesday, and the board named Tony Alvarez as CEO, with John Suckow to be chief restructuring officer. Both are with Alvarez & Marsal, a turnaround management firm founded and headed by Alvarez.

Leo Benatar, a member of the board, was elected to be the non-executive chairman.

Interstate Bakeries operates several businesses in the Cincinnati area, including a Butternut Bread bakery it owns on Fifth Street in Queensgate and about two dozen retail outlets and distribution centers throughout the tri-state.

It leases most of its distribution and retail facilities. The retail outlets operate under the Butternut, Hostess and Dolly Madison trade names.

The Cincinnati bakery primarily makes Butternut breads and buns. Wonder Bread, Twinkies and other products are shipped in from out-of-town facilities. In addition to its Cincinnati bakery, it has others in surrounding markets, including a Wonder Bread bakery in Columbus, Ohio; a Wonder Bread and Hostess bakery in Indianapolis; and a Dolly Madison bakery in Columbus, Ind.

Officials could not be reached Wednesday at its offices on Fifth Street or at its corporate headquarters in Kansas City.

Interstate, with annual sales of $3.5 billion, operates more than 50 bakeries and employs about 34,000, including 600 in the Kansas City area.

The company's shares closed at $3.27 on the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, down 13 cents.

[Markos101]

It does look like that way to me. To put it into context, most people's wealth is in some way tied to compound interest in the stockmarket.

Let's say I wanted to make my great, great grandchildren very rich in 200 years time, and assume (in the 'Cornucopian' sense) that growth is going to continue in stocks at 10% per year.

I could put $100 away now into a good tracking fund. In 200 years, it would be worth the princely sum of $18,990,527,646.

A cool 19 billion dollars in a trust fund.

Hardly realistic, you think?

Mark

[BabyPeanut]

It does look like that way to me. To put it into context, most people's wealth is in some way tied to compound interest in the stockmarket.

Why does this "economy based on usuary" seem so much like a pyramid scam?

[Markos101]

It is a pyramid; the usurer money lenders are at the top, and the workers in the most debt are at the bottom.

Money lending creates a pyramid superstructure; its a mathematical consequence of it. This is why there are many in 'poverty' and very, very few with private mansion estates.

Socialism, on the other hand, could be called a cube, but many socialist states (many of them failed last century but historically that hasn't necessarily been the case) during the last century seemed to be corrupted by the politicians, who gave themselves pay and choice privaleges.

Mark

[Markos101]

The 'pyramid scam' is sold on the basis that if the economy grows, then even those at the bottom will experience higher material quality of life. However, the problem is the 'pyramid scam' requires growth; growth is a prerequisite of it, not a gift given to all. It also means that the money lenders at the top continue to grow in wealth at the expense of the ingenuity and work of those lower in the pyramid, and that they continue to benefit from its produce despite not being directly involved in the economic growth it requires.

The money lenders however can lose money in that bankrupcy can be filed for by anyone who cannot pay back their debts, so the money lenders also take risks. However, the person declaring bankruptcy can also lose many of their assets as a result (look up the bankruptcy process yourself).

Also, since you can also benefit yourself from compound growth by your investments, in this sense you can also grow your wealth at the expense of others; the only difference between you and a bank however is that the bank 'create' money by the issuing of loans, whereas you have to do the work to pay it back.

[lowem]

It is a pyramid; the usurer money lenders are at the top, and the workers in the most debt are at the bottom ...

Hey wait, that's also how MLM works. Uh, wait, they're all the same aren't they?

"Who's holding up the world? Atlas. Who's holding up Atlas? A huge turtle? Who's holding up the turtle? Ah, it's turtles all the way."

Only for us, I guess, it's pyramids all the way.

[MonteQuest]

I think we have. When you consider we have a $600 billion dollar "free ride" trade deficit, a $500 billion national debt, a huge tax cut, the lowest interest rates in 45 years that allows people to refinance their homes, take out large sums in equity and spend it will-nilly on SUV's and ChinaMart goodies, and the economy just sputters??

If that won't jump-start this pig, nothing will.

[BorneoRagnarok]

Here in Malaysia, we also face limits to growth. Unemployment rate goes up , more people go to Singapore to work as labour. Real wages/ salary drop . Eggs increased 6.3 % . Meat increase 15%. Etc


However, Dole officials on TV said young people are lazy. They are not proficient in English so it had no competitive advantage . They want government handouts. They want to play PolyStation (SNES machine ) at home. (We are not rich here you know. SNES is good enough) They like chit chat online. They like random sex. So they are unemployed.

So the dole is not responsible for unemployment issue.

Ok, if they are lazy , why they go to Singapore in the first place to work as labour in unfamiliar land ? Maybe lowem had meet a few engineers or executive or workers from East Malaysia ?

BTW, English is not our mother tongue here. Here we use 5 different languages/dialects to communicate. Malaysia is a multi-racial country. If we are specialised and articulate in English then we are American colony or British colony. And it is not random sex. It is some love others so much but they had no $$ for big weddings fest so they just live with one another. Or there are no jobs to do and the only past time is making love which is normal. Just ask what Agent Scully do before she joined X-Files.(Conservative don't nuke me I am liberal)

The limit to growth had been reached here and they blamed younger generation for all the problems. Clever, huh ?

And yes, a lot of get-rich-quick scheme here. Almost every day got seminars in hotel to ask people to invest in their pyramid scheme. A lot of youngsters and old people fell prey to these schemes. Some went suicide because they lost their life savings. Stock market is another culprit. Dole officials on TV said the investors are greedy so they loss $$$.

Wow, last time it is George Soros. Then it is IMF and now it is greedy. Next time ?? Bush took all the oils

[larrydallas]

As people in these forums know the main and most important thing about the economy is not mentioned in any economic theory. Every economist assumes technology as time progresses results in pushing out the production possibility frontier. What is driving that technology?

It is energy which is not renewable and historically been at cheap prices (at least in the USA) which has created this artificial growth of GDP over the years which just can not keep going on.

I have to admit that I learned about peak oil about 3 years ago and feel like I was too late. I wish I had known about this back in high school as at least a junior. I would have done many thing differently in the past 10 years which would have better made preparations for the inevitable.

Can you immagine that one of my chemistry professors in college at a sophomore level said the fossil fuel party would be over in 20 years. That's all he said....not a mention of peak oil and bell curves with possible cliffs. How could I have been so blind. I was a science major for 2 years and took many classes with stat. annalysis and bell curves were so commonplace. I just could not put this stuff together back then. Grrrrr...really bad but I'm glad I woke up when I did.

[BorneoRagnarok]

LarryDallas, if you are so blind . I am blind and deaf.

Almost 11 years ago , some Solar Panel marketing people told us here in East Malaysia that oil is running out and sun energy is the only way to go in the future and we thought he is joking. He is talking to a group of laughing 'Greenies'.

Actually last time , I am one of those 'Greenies' . In lower secondary schools , we hate cars, every single one of them plus the damned motorbike people. But sooner and slowly , we are <b>them</b>. We begged our parents for car keys to drive cars and collect $$ to buy bikes...

And we wrote articles in school magazines about the danger of deforestation but nothing about burning fossil fuels and our own energy consumption. Current 'Greenies' use SUV to school to write article about deforestation again.

And yes, 11 years ago , I had read "<b>Energy in the economy</b>" by Malcolm Slesser . Everything about EROEI , net energy , energy quality , fertilizer in the industrial agricultural , destruction of carrying capacity , global warming. The effects of energy depletion particularly oil ,gas and uranium. Most of the energy book at that time assume nuclear are forever.

Brilliant Malcolm Slesser . How he knew all these back in 1978 ?? I almost accussed Jay Hanson of copying his work. So I do nothing, prepare nothing for the last 10 years until 1 year ago. It is too late for me but never gave up. So far, I throw the TV away , don't use machines for washing and grass cutting and try to recover from car addict by limiting fuel consumption to USD 30 per month.

How come you people in US, Europe don't know about peak oil ? Here nobody believe IT . But the librarian here seem to buy every book that had the title "Oil" , "Energy" "Peak" , "Resources" . May be need to discuss peak oil with her . Hey , she is my friend's mother. My mother's friend too. Small town.


It seem like he is still alive ..
http://www.rui.co.uk/slesser/

And he wrote new book .

The authors show how energy is the real determinant of what is both possible, and how it's distribution can forged into a tool whereby the environment can be protected and the global commons shared amongst all nations in an equitable way.