[vtsnowedin]

None of us has any clue about the weather this next growing season. And that includes all the government so called experts. And there will be no shortage of diesel to plant crops just a shortage of money to pay for it and the fertilizer.
Taken all together a farmer might well have a more profitable year then most if prices rise as much as predicted but of course that farmer will have had the luck to bring in a better crop the most others in the market.
Hard to sell a crop that did not grow for whatever reason but given the vast expanse of the American and Canadian farm lands I expect some farmers will have a very good weather year.

[suxs]

Hey AdamB, please post links to the original source material that substantiates your ever-expanding list of McPherson quotes, predictions, employment, etc. Or should we take your word that your assertions are accurate and true, lol? Since you're incapable of telling the truth about your own direct statements, yeah, I need evidence, and, remember, you are making the claims so the burden of proof is on you.

[AdamB]

Hey AdamB, please post links to the original source material that substantiates your ever-expanding list of McPherson quotes, predictions, employment, etc.

I'll think about it. But first, a cautionary tale about those who have to take things out of context to pretend it is me who isn't getting it right.

Tyler, once a moderator on this forum, once asked me, "why do you have to be irritating/sarcastic/caustic when it comes to answering questions, why can't you just lay out the case you want to make and see how the ideas stand on their own?" or something to that effect.

The answer was twofold, one being that there would always be people like you, irritated by my overall persona perhaps, that search for any means to short circuit or circumnavigate some irritating factual claim or another that doesn't support their narrative. Without the ability to do their own research to catch me out, instead just take things out of context without for a second trying to wiggle around the underlying irritating item, in this case what Guy has claimed in the past that discredits what he says in the present. Plus some really entertaining side stories related to his general character.

The second is that even after (and I have tried at various points, because your request is reasonable) to do a core dump of a lifetime's work experience, scientific research and professional analytics on a topic like peak oil (or in this case a minor player in it), they revert back to the first answer.

The people truly worth talking to are those who understand the difference between facts and whatever they wish to BELIEVE, who are capable of the cognitive dissonance necessary to understand that just because a source is their favorite doesn't mean it doesn't have flaws, inconsistencies, or is outright nonsense, and picking better ones to do battle with (called learning).

So, you want references on Guy from me? I ask in return, how is it you DON'T ALREADY KNOW THEM YOURSELF? It's called research. It isn't always easy, it requires the ability to learn for oneself, and you'll be better off all around once you've completed it. Try it Mikey, you might like it.

Or should we take your word that your assertions are accurate and true, lol? Since you're incapable of telling the truth about your own direct statements, yeah, I need evidence, and, remember, you are making the claims so the burden of proof is on you.

This is the internet, and in particular a forum that used folks like Ruppert and Savinar as sources of information on a highly complex and multi-disciplinary subject. As far as any challenge on whether or not I have the information available for these various claims of Guy "Let Me Grief Counsel You Baby" McPherson, I offer a footnote to those with an interest in answering your question honestly, as to whether or not I say things that are true, rather than not.

Azcentral.com - Viewpoints online print edition
"You might feel fine, but high oil cost, scarcity mean American Empire is about to come crashing down
Guy R. McPherson
University of Arizona professor
April 6, 2008

"Most of the world's oil pumps are about to shut down"....."We passed the world oil peak in 2005"...."$400 per barrel brings down the American Empire"....."in a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100%, inflation will be running 1000%"...."if you are alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally"....

Do your own research, I've done mine, and require no validation from the likes of you or anyone else as to the quality or quantity of it, be it hobby time around web forums or my body of published work.

[suxs]

Hello, McFly, anybody in there? Do you honestly require a refresher course on the elementary concept of why people need to support their claims with proof -- good grief (rhetorical question). Hint: it has nothing to do with "doing your own research." The burden of proof (“onus probandi”) is the obligation to provide sufficient supporting evidence for the affirmative claims that you make. You have this definition ass-backward, AdamB. You have a burden of proof with regard to the claims that you make, which means you have to provide sufficient evidence in order to support those claims, either as part of the original argument or in response to the claim being questioned. In short, Logic 101 dictates that the burden of proof always falls on the person making the affirmative claim. Placing quotation marks around a group of words taken out of context does not represent proof. You must provide specific evidence as it relates to your claims and arguments that is traceable and verifiable.

While you may have been trained and influenced by the now-shuttered and thoroughly discredited Trump University rules of fabrication and obfuscation, sorry, these rules are not generally accepted principles.

[Baduila]

@suxs

AdamB acts like a troll. He writes lies, gives no proof for his claims and insults people. Suxs, all people discussing with him come to your conclusions. Best is to ignore him.

[AdamB]

Hello, McFly, anybody in there? Do you honestly require a refresher course on the elementary concept of why people need to support their claims with proof -- good grief (rhetorical question). Hint: it has nothing to do with "doing your own research."

You just have missed the part where I long windedly noted that throwing pearls before the swine has never worked before.

If you don't know the background and credibility on the person or source you wish to use, particularly as it relates to their current credibility, your ignorance isn't my fault.

Read more of the long winded next time and don't skim.

[AdamB]

@suxs
AdamB acts like a troll.

I admittedly do act like a troll on occasion. If you can't tell the difference between that, and my more irritated professor attitude, I will try and do better in differentiating the two next time.

He writes lies, gives no proof for his claims and insults people. Suxs, all people discussing with him come to your conclusions. Best is to ignore him.

I referenced a textbook last time we conversed, specifically that you might feel comfortable as you seem to rely heavily on them, even while ignoring basic principles of the earth sciences that have escaped your claimed thermodynamic knowledge. I boiled down an example so that a child might understand even. And the question itself apparently stumped you. Do you have children, perhaps you could ask one of them to help you out? If not your own, perhaps a neighbor has a 1st grader who could enlighten you?

[Doly]

None of us has any clue about the weather this next growing season. And that includes all the government so called experts.

There are long-range weather forecasts made by the government that can be purchased for a fee estimating the weather for the next season, and people in the agri-business regularly purchase them. I assume they wouldn't if they were useless for the purpose of deciding what to plant for the next growing season.

[vtsnowedin]

None of us has any clue about the weather this next growing season. And that includes all the government so called experts.

There are long-range weather forecasts made by the government that can be purchased for a fee estimating the weather for the next season, and people in the agri-business regularly purchase them. I assume they wouldn't if they were useless for the purpose of deciding what to plant for the next growing season.

Farmers also but the Farmers almanac putting as much faith in one set of predictions as the other.
Weather forecasting is getting better but that just means there is a longer run of them being right before they get it wrong.

[theluckycountry]

You're not thinking very deeply here vt

If that is true, still a light year ahead of you.

Pretty sad when you have to run to the forum troll to back you up

You are assuming that every existing refinery and factory will somehow be destroyed. Many will be closed as the declining population makes them unneeded but where demand still exist so will the facilities to meet that demand.
You probably think every city and every library and every computer hard drive will go up in smoke as well.
That would take a long nuclear war.

I assume nothing of the sort so why try to make out I do? You're just digging a deeper hole for yourself.
But lets look at your stated plan, it's to fill a couple of barrels with oil from a stripper, pop them on the back of your suv and then drive to one of the still functioning refineries correct? What then? You just drive up to the gate and say "Can you turn these into gas for me? Like I said, you're not thinking too deeply.

Here's what will likely happen, the oil will still flow, but the government will restrict supplies to the little people, and you might get a couple of gallons a week if you're lucky, and can afford it.

[theluckycountry]

I see you're still jabbering away there @AdamB, adding something useful for once I hope? Hey, good news, my new bike is on it's way from Melbourne, will be at the dealer's in a few days. I've arranged with a suspension shop to fit three grands worth of Ohlins front and rear (that's an expensive set of fork cartridges and shock absorber upgrade btw) I can't wait to get it and explore some of the gravel backroads up here.

These new bikes are amazing Adam, perfect for the wide open spaces of the Australian countryside. It's going to be a hard choice in the future though, take out my bmw sports bike on the blacktop, ride the new adventure tourer, or take the V6 4x4 and enjoy the aircon stereo and leather seats? You're lucky you don't have such things to worry about hey

[vtsnowedin]

You are assuming that every existing refinery and factory will somehow be destroyed. Many will be closed as the declining population makes them unneeded but where demand still exist so will the facilities to meet that demand.
You probably think every city and every library and every computer hard drive will go up in smoke as well.
That would take a long nuclear war.

I assume nothing of the sort so why try to make out I do? You're just digging a deeper hole for yourself.
But lets look at your stated plan, it's to fill a couple of barrels with oil from a stripper, pop them on the back of your suv and then drive to one of the still functioning refineries correct? What then? You just drive up to the gate and say "Can you turn these into gas for me? Like I said, you're not thinking too deeply.

Here's what will likely happen, the oil will still flow, but the government will restrict supplies to the little people, and you might get a couple of gallons a week if you're lucky, and can afford it.

Apparently you have the reading comprehension of an inner city public school dropout.
You totally missed or misread this

but where demand still exist so will the facilities to meet that demand.

Where in that would I get pushed into the well to refinery transport role?
I do expect there will be less oil but also less people to need it. But market forces of supply and demand will control my access to it not the government which might well be totally nonfunctional.

[AdamB]

I see you're still jabbering away there @AdamB, adding something useful for once I hope? Hey, good news, my new bike is on it's way from Melbourne, will be at the dealer's in a few days. I've arranged with a suspension shop to fit three grands worth of Ohlins front and rear (that's an expensive set of fork cartridges and shock absorber upgrade btw) I can't wait to get it and explore some of the gravel backroads up here.

Now we're talking!! Rich old farts playing at Barbie Doll doom while enjoying what REALLY matters and is relevant, fast 2 wheelers and road courses to use them on!! No irrational peak oil fears get in the way of us old farts when it comes to enjoying life here at the end of the line, right Lucky?

I'll put my Penske quad clicker and Racetech gold valve emulators against your Ohlins any day of the week and twice on Tuesdays! Long live peak oil fears....for the scaredy cats....let exceptional Americans and some of those folks living in the Chinese mining colony off the coast of New Zealand have a good time!

These new bikes are amazing Adam, perfect for the wide open spaces of the Australian countryside.

The American West and the Iron Butt race was where the ST1100 came into its own, and you still find its derivatives running the mountain canyons in the Rockies and droning across everything west of the Mississippi. New doesn't always mean better, sometimes it just means new. I've got 78k on mine, it is an analog bike in a digital world and when I redid the forks this winter, I didn't need any help in tearing them down and installing them myself. What, they don't teach how to do basic motorcycle mechanics to folks in those Chinese mining colonies? Now run along and polish up your Mandarin, make sure you bow low enough that they let you keep those nice baubles.

[suxs]

You should read "The Last Tree on Easter Island" by Jared Diamond. They ended up cannables, but it probably won't get that bad in the US.

It will be many multiples worse in the US after factoring in guns, nuclear power plants, and modern technology. If you want to predict the future of life on Earth, study the history of Easter Island for the island’s human-induced ecological holocaust is a microcosm of the Earth. Easter Island is today a desolate and parched landscape bereft of biodiversity; however, for most of the island’s history and before the arrival of man, Easter Island was Nirvana -- rich volcanic soils, moderate temperatures, abundant rainfall, and forests teeming with exotic flora and fauna combined to create an island paradise. Among Easter Island’s species found nowhere else was the world’s largest palm tree. This now extinct behemoth grew to a height of 100 feet and had a girth of six feet.

Then the Destroyer of Worlds arrived in the form of seafaring Polynesians. For a time, the land produced such bounty that sufficient leisure time existed for the human inhabitants to create the toppled over ghostly stone statues that still dot the island, but the good times would not last due to the inhabitants’ failure to live sustainably -- human population numbers grew far out of proportion to what was sustainable, poor farming practices eroded fertile soil, and animal and plant species found nowhere else were harvested to the point of extinction. When the very last tree on the island was cut down, the Islanders sealed their fate. What kind of madness would allow this to happen (sound familiar)? No trees meant no canoes with which to harvest the ocean’s bounty and final remaining source of protein.

The result: When Captain James Cook discovered the island, he was shocked to find a small, parasite-infested human population engaged in cannibalistic internecine tribal warfare. After eliminating all-natural protein sources, the inhabitants turned on each other for the only remaining food source-- human flesh. Welcome to our future for history repeats itself due to our greed, lack of wisdom, and inability to plan long-term.

An ET analysis of humanity would go something like the following:

"I wish to share a revelation. During our effort to create an animal hierarchical classification system, we realized that humanity's mammalian self-classification is false for all mammals develop ecological stasis or become extinct, but you humans represent the sole exception. When you migrate to an area, you rapidly multiply beyond the Earth’s carrying capacity and consume until every natural resource is exhausted. Your survival is dependent upon metastasizing the human contagion to new, unspoiled environs. There is another pathological organism that follows a uniquely similar destructive pattern -- cancer. You are a malignancy upon the Earth, and we are the cure."

[Newfie]

^1+

[theluckycountry]

+2 susx In my readings of easter Island I came across an analysis of the construction there. Before the statues the leaders built large T-shaped stone verandas leading off their huts. They would have feasts on them and the greater the leader the greater the size of the stone deck. Very similar to the madness the rest of civilization has engaged in throughout history, chewing up the earths resources to impress their peers. Well easter island was a closed system but the historians and world leaders in their brainlessness didn't realize that the Earth as a whole is similarly a closed system.

You could be right about it being worse in the US, as far as I can see the leaders there have abandoned and pretense of making it a sustainable continent, they all have their retreats, their secure enclaves far away in places that haven't been polluted beyond all imagination. The US started as the most beautiful continent on Earth, but they turned it into open-pit mines surrounded by freeways and shopping malls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ZeXnmDZMQ

[AdamB]

The US started as the most beautiful continent on Earth, but they turned it into open-pit mines surrounded by freeways and shopping malls.

And here I thought some US locals on this site said the silliest crap. A day trip on a motorcycle where I live can accomplish 100,000 feet in elevation change. We even get a t-shirt when we're done. Come on out in August and join us on these roads.
You probably can't even find a twisty road above 7000' in your Chinese mining colony off the coast of New Zealand, us exceptional folks in a beautiful land do it all day long. Every day of the week if we have the endurance for it. Freeways and shopping malls, what an ignorant putz.

[suxs]

similar to the madness the rest of civilization has engaged in throughout history, chewing up the earths resources to impress their peers. Well easter island was a closed system but the historians and world leaders in their brainlessness didn't realize that the Earth as a whole is similarly a closed system.

Thank you Newfie and theluckycountry for a most astute analysis. Matter of fact, with your permission I would like to amend my summary of Easter Island to include your observations. Well done.

Regarding the US, your comments are also spot-on. The US loses, on average, 6.000 acres a day of forests and farmland to endless suburban growth. There exists little to no planning of communities. The urban areas have been hollowed-out and the suburban areas constructed after WW II are now experiencing abandonment and dilapidation. The US concept of a throwaway society has permeated all facets of life.

[suxs]

AdamB acts like a troll. He writes lies, gives no proof for his claims and insults people. Suxs, all people discussing with him come to your conclusions. Best is to ignore him.

Sage advice.

[AdamB]

AdamB acts like a troll. He writes lies, gives no proof for his claims and insults people. Suxs, all people discussing with him come to your conclusions. Best is to ignore him.

Sage advice.

If the supposition was true anyway. I do act like a troll on occasion, but I don't lie, I provide proof for my claims as they appear appropriate (notice not a WORD of rebuttal to the Guy McPherson written article I provided as to his understanding of peak oil and proof of switcharoo to other doom topics when his first ones were proven as ignorant as we all now know), and it is far easier to just label and then run and hide than confront a better informed dissenting opinion.