[Plantagenet]

Unfortunately if we don't keep growing our population something terrible will happen. What, I don't know but experts and politicians seem to be fairly united in telling us that stabilizing or shrinking our population isn't an option -- the only way forward is to keep increasing our population! We are going to have to continue building over wetlands and agricultural land.

There are many examples in human history of populations shrinking or even collapsing entirely in some regions.

This is usually caused by war or famine or plague or some natural catastrophe.

Global warming is the kind of natural catastrophe that could directly impact some local populations, and global warming could also act as a trigger that might set off wars or famine or plague.

Personally I think some amount of population collapse is inevitable. For instance, We're going to see sea level rise inundate large areas of the Nile Delta, Mekong Delta, Yellow River Delta, Ganges River Delta, etc. etc.wiping out the food supplies for tens of millions of people.



Cheers!

[yellowcanoe]

Unfortunately if we don't keep growing our population something terrible will happen. What, I don't know but experts and politicians seem to be fairly united in telling us that stabilizing or shrinking our population isn't an option -- the only way forward is to keep increasing our population! We are going to have to continue building over wetlands and agricultural land.

There are many examples in human history of populations shrinking or even collapsing entirely in some regions.

This is usually caused by war or famine or plague or some natural catastrophe.

Global warming is the kind of natural catastrophe that could directly impact some local populations, and global warming could also act as a trigger that might set off wars or famine or plague.

Personally I think some amount of population collapse is inevitable. For instance, We're going to see sea level rise inundate large areas of the Nile Delta, Mekong Delta, Yellow River Delta, Ganges River Delta, etc. etc.wiping out the food supplies for tens of millions of people.

Yes, populations have shrunk or collapsed before and it will happen again. The problem is that predictions that population would outgrow the food supply have proven wrong so many times that people tend to believe that we will always find technological solutions that will enable us to feed an ever growing number of people. It's an issue that has concerned me since reading "The Population Bomb" in high school. It reminds of Peak Oil - predictions of Peak Oil have been wrong so many times that people wrongly conclude that it won't happen.

[theluckycountry]

I think cornucopians tend to fasten onto the most extreme predictions and when they fail they use that as proof the event will not occur. The limits to growth predictions cited the middle of this century as the time we would run into myriads of insurmountable problems due to our unrestrained growth. So far they are right on track.

The Limits to Growth study was roundly rejected by the people most at benefit to maintaining the status quo, so no surprise there. One of the key points of LTG was that in the 21st century governments would be forced to divert so much capital to solving the problems caused by our rapacious Planet munching that standards of living would inexorably fall. Which is exactly what we are seeing with the huge expenditures of capital to transition to EV's, with the the vast amounts spent to protect cities from rising oceans, the big taxes for going 'green' and even things like the Gulf oil spill cleanup.

The end of growth, in whatever form, seemed to us to be a very distant prospect in 1972. All World-3 scenarios in LTG showed growth in population and economy continuing well past the year 2000. Even in the most pessimistic LTG scenario the material standard of living kept increasing all the way to 2015. Thus LTG placed the end of growth almost 50 years after the publication of the book. That seemed to be time enough for deliberation, choice, and corrective action—even at the global level.

When we wrote LTG we hoped that such deliberation would lead society to take corrective actions to reduce the possibilities of collapse. Collapse is not an attractive future. The rapid decline of population and economy to levels that can be supported by the natural systems of the globe will no doubt be accompanied by failing health, conflict, ecological devastation, and gross inequalities.

Uncontrolled collapse in the human footprint will come from rapid increases in mortality and rapid declines in consumption. With appropriate choice and action such uncontrolled decline could be avoided; overshoot could instead be resolved by a conscious effort to reduce humanity’s demands on the planet. In this latter case gradual downward adjustment of the footprint would result from successful efforts to reduce fertility and from more equitable distribution of the sustainable rate of material consumption.

Yeah well that was ok for them to espouse, sitting in their ivory towers collecting fat checks, driving their huge 1970's gas guzzlers. FF 50 years and people still want nice cars and still like to sit in ivory towers and that's why we collectively as a species couldn't care less. Even the hypocritical EV owners here know the score.

[Newfie]

LTG was unusual to unique in that it projected over a relatively long period. Many predictions, like The Population Bomb, Peak Oil, or Climate Change should be projected over longer periods but are seen or heard on a much shorter basis.

It is not that the fundamentals of the prediction are wrong, it is just that people have a hard time understanding the predictions in the appropriate time frame. They hear a prediction and then too soon test to see if it is true.

Many of the predictions such as the Population Bomb and Peak Oil are really about Resource Depletion, just special cases. And it is pretty hard to argue finite resources are infinite.

LTG did a good jon of setting the time horizon.

[AdamB]

LTG was unusual to unique in that it projected over a relatively long period. Many predictions, like The Population Bomb, Peak Oil, or Climate Change should be projected over longer periods but are seen or heard on a much shorter basis.

Well, Peak oil IS projected over a long period of time, graphs by provided by everyone from Hubbert to Campbell showed a bell shaped curve, stretching all the out to 2050 or 2100 in some cases. The issue isn't the length of the projection, the issue with peak oil was deciding it was tomorrow afternoon or thereabouts. LTG did it right, it picked a time frame far enough out in the future so as the authors might be dead and not discredited in their own lifetimes by the moment of truth.

It is not that the fundamentals of the prediction are wrong, it is just that people have a hard time understanding the predictions in the appropriate time frame. They hear a prediction and then too soon test to see if it is true.

Quite easy to do when McPeaksters call the peak within a decade or less. Hence the natural advantage of LTG. But think about it this way, if peak oilers had all been calling for peak oil 2030-2050-2070 when it is more likely rather than less likely, would anyone have paid atention to their doomerism? Doomers aren't looking for doom beyond their lifetimes, it needs to happen within a near present in order to have urgency that matters.

One of the problems of convincing people to do something about climate change now as a matter of fact. "OMG!!! The world will be 1.5C warmer by 2050!" just doesn't have the pizzazz of "Arctic BOE by September of 2017 and the end of civilization 3 months later!" that Guy McPherson employs in order to "grief counsel" females.

Many of the predictions such as the Population Bomb and Peak Oil are really about Resource Depletion, just special cases. And it is pretty hard to argue finite resources are infinite.

LTG did a good jon of setting the time horizon.

In terms of making sure the authors wouldn't be discredited in their lifetimes, I agree.

[theluckycountry]

LTG was unusual to unique in that it projected over a relatively long period...
It is not that the fundamentals of the prediction are wrong, it is just that people have a hard time understanding the predictions in the appropriate time frame. They hear a prediction and then too soon test to see if it is true.

Yes, quite true. In 2007 after reading about peakoil for a few years, and seeing the price going up and up at the pump, I was convinced as many were that ever higher prices would be the norm. I sold two V8's and replaced them with 4's. Not a bad deal really since one was a work vehicle and hardly mattered, having big engines is more of a psychological thing, "I have always had V8's and I could drive anything less"

I have a 4x4 six cylinder now, and of course my motorcycles are quite powerful, because the dreaded $200bb never eventuated. I don't know if it ever will Newfie, outside of general inflation. The simple fact is as each year goes by people all over the world are driving less and less, most obviously in the US. Given lower rates of usage due to impoverishment the price can stay as it is, as nations fight for market share with their indigenous oil. Take away the oil revenues from Saudi Arabia and it will turn into Venezuela overnight.

[Plantagenet]

The simple fact is as each year goes by people all over the world are driving less and less, most obviously in the US.

Actually, no.

While its true that people in the USA and Europe are driving less, People in China and India and SE Asia and Africa are driving MORE.


People in China and India and SE Asia and Africa are driving MORE

And, since the majority of the world's people live in India, China, Asia and Africa, the simple fact is as each year goes by most people in countries all over the world are driving more and more.

Thats one reason why global oil consumption continues to go up just about every year, pushing the world to new highs in global oil consumption as we recover from the pandemic.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

The simple fact is as each year goes by people all over the world are driving less and less, most obviously in the US.

Actually, no.

While its true that people in the USA and Europe are driving less, People in China and India and SE Asia and Africa are driving MORE.
Cheers!

And you think that retort is definitive? The population of India is still increasing at a rapid rate plant, so sure, more people might be buying mopeds every year, but that doesn't equate to more miles driven per person as i said now does it. And considering they are almost the most populous nation on the Planet now, what they use as a percentage of Global consumption is basically irrelevant.

March 10, 2023 India: Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, rose by more than 5% to 4.82 million barrels per day (18.5 million tonnes) in February, its 15th consecutive year-on-year rise, data showed.

USA: In 2022, about 134.55 billion gallons (or about 3.20 billion barrels) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 369 million gallons per day

Let me distill it for you.
USA = 370 Million barrels/d
India = 18 Million barrels/d
America uses 20x as much. It would take 20 India's to match the US.

Why do you keep pulling these stupid statements out of your arse every time I post a comment? Keep it up and toss you on the ignore list. I'd rather not, you do add somewhat to the discourse here but these silly cornucopian comments that fly in the face of rational fact are becoming too much. Why don't you do some research before you attack that keyboard of yours?

If you're looking for the reason for increased oil consumption, look elsewhere. You might for example start with the energy inputs to the fracking and tar sands industries. All that sand? All those trucks and trains? As for India, do a search on increased industrial activity there. More industrial product = more transport = more fuel consumption, which btw has nothing to do with miles driven by the average Indian for leisure, which was my point.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/ind ... 023-03-09/
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10

[Plantagenet]

The population of India is still increasing at a rapid rate plant, so sure, more people might be buying mopeds every year, but that doesn't equate to more miles driven per person as i said now does it.

Have you ever been to India?

If we were talking about Vietnam your comment might make sense because people in Vietnam primarily buy scooters --- they've developed a unique scooter culture in Vietnam where dating couples meet at little sidewalk cafes, so you see hundreds of scooters outside the most popular places----- but in India millions of people are moving up from scooters and buying their first cars, vans and small trucks.

And the cars, vans and small trucks in India don't just sit there....when people in India buy cars, vans and small trucks they drive them more than they did before they had a car, van or small truck. And they honk their horns almost constantly. Its really quite an insane scene there.


Typical street scene in Bangalore, India

AND If you need me to explain why people who buy cars, vans and small trucks drive their cars, vans and small trucks more then people who don't have cars, vans and small trucks drive their nonexistent cars, vans and small trucks...just ask.

Thanks for my laugh of the day.

CHEERS!

[theluckycountry]

"1,000-Year Rainfall Event" Batters Hudson Valley With Flash Floods

The Hudson Valley area is the most affected by the storm. Meteorologists say the region that stretches along the Hudson River from Westchester County to Albany received upwards of five and eight inches of rain in six hours. Some called yesterday's rainfall event a "once-in-1,000-year rainfall event."

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/1000- ... ash-floods

Reminds of the Boulder flood a couple of years ago. Floods are becoming more common in Australia too, many blame it on the fact that hotter oceans are evaporating more water, and energy! It's creating atmospheric rivers and whatnot. Anyway it's just a rainstorm, just a small isolated event.

[Newfie]

The industry brings in about $5.7bn in revenue each year to Maui – where on any given day, about one-third of the people there are tourists – and provides about 75% of all private sector jobs there. But in recent years, Native Hawaiians and other local residents have pushed back against the industry, which has strained the island’s natural resources. The industry’s hold on the local economy has also placed Maui in a precarious position, struggling to protect paradise against the tides of climate chaos.
“This is an island with finite resources, and those resources are being depleted,” said Trisha Kehaulani Watson, vice-president of the Native Hawaiian advocacy group ʻĀina Momona. “What we’ve seen from this disaster is that we are perhaps far more vulnerable than anybody wants to admit.”

Hawaii; climate change or over development? Or?

[Plantagenet]

So far this summer Canadian wildfires have burned up TWICE the highest previous record of forest.

And the summer isn't over yet.....they've got more than a month to go.



20,000 people in Yellowknife just had to evacuate down the only road out....with fires raging right up to the road....

Whoa.......climate change did a big a jump this year....

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

Move along folks move along. Potential new disaster to focus on.

[Newfie]

Our boat is on the hard in Antigua. A calculated risk for sure. She has withstood 70 knots before with the only damage due to inept worker prep. And here the prep is better and the mast down, so we remain hopeful. Still a direct hit by a F4 or F5 storm would be very troubling. Every doubling of wind speed quadruples the wind force.

[theluckycountry]

Sept. 4, 2023.
A massive wildfire in northeastern Greece is gradually abating, with over 700 firefighters deployed

Wildfires are common in Greece and other southern European countries during their hot, dry summers as dozens of fires have been breaking out each day across the country for weeks

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/ ... er-control

Really? That's not just spin? Wildfires with 700 personal in attendance? Well fuck living there!

Anyway their troubles are over it seems.

Wednesday, Sep 06, 2023
Greece Floods As Potential "Medicane" Wreaks Havoc

A powerful storm churning over the southeast Mediterranean has already dumped more than 20 inches of rain on central Greece and sparked widespread flooding. The upper-level low-pressure system, named "Daniel," has characteristics of a "medicane" or Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

My goodness! Zagora, Greece recorded a jaw-dropping 528 mm (21 inches) of rain in just 10 hours - an additional 300-500 mm, locally up to 600 mm, of rain could fall by Thursday. A historic flooding event is underway! pic.twitter.com/7swtHuCFVI

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/greec ... eaks-havoc

Phew, I need to unwind, I think I'll go over to https://www.reddit.com/r/CatastrophicFailure/ and chill out for a bit.

[Tuike]

We are having traditional cold winter weather here, which is getting rare on planet Earth. Cool air feels so refreshing to breathe.

[yellowcanoe]

We are having traditional cold winter weather here, which is getting rare on planet Earth. Cool air feels so refreshing to breathe.

I'm just about to head out on a bike ride. We have no snow here -- not even in the forest! Being able to go biking using a regular bike in January is an entirely new experience for me. Of course a few hardy souls bike during a normal winter using either bikes equipped with studded tires or more recently, fat wheeled bikes.

[Newfie]

Our place in Newfoundland is having another mild winter. They have had some dusting of snow but no accumulation. My Cousin is posting FB pics of here place, they have not yet had a hard frost.

[jawagord]

Next week is our turn in Western Canada!

Finland frozen: Record-breaking -42.7C temperature disrupts public transport, peaks electricity use

https://essanews.com/finland-frozen-rec ... 462875265a

[theluckycountry]

Well it's 2024 and some are looking back at the last year now all the data is available.

2023 smashes record for world’s hottest year by huge margin

The article begins with the statement in Bold: Rapid reduction in fossil fuel burning urgently needed to preserve liveable conditions, say scientists, as climate damage deepens
Then continues: The planet was 1.48C hotter in 2023 compared with the period before the mass burning of fossil fuels ignited the climate crisis.

It's not necessary to read anymore, though I included the link below. Let's face it, no one outside of these scientists getting paid to collect the data or those in the media etc actually cares now. I know I don't! I did once, but a decade of endless gloom and doom stories has desensitized me to the point where I simply 'won't' read another. It's not like financial doom and gloom, that's actionable and the level of action changes but not with GW I thought. You put in your A/C units, water tanks etc, and then kick back and wait, knowing, or believing, that it won't get that bad in your lifetime.

But I think some unusual actions may be necessary because the story above got me thinking, "What if Governments globally do something drastic, like they did over the Magic Virus. What if they severely rationed gasoline, or interfered with our driving habits in other ways? I have a particularly expensive motorcycle that I was mothballing to sell off in the future, a real keeper bike that's in demand. I got to thinking that perhaps I should unload it now? Back pre-GFC Ford XY GTHO's (a rare Australian muscle car) were selling for up to $500,000 here. Madness really. After the GFC no one was interested and prices fell by a good margin.

RE too will be effected no doubt, especially low lying coastal and river land. We seem to be getting more floods here than over the past 60 odd years, property prices along the major rivers that have seen floods are down and taking longer than usual to recover. Horrendous storms have been causing havoc up in my state as well. I beginning to wonder if a reinforced concrete home high in the mountains might not be the way to go in the future?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ossil-fuel