gollum wrote:I'm inclined to agree, if we simply went to a 4 day business week, mandated that every new vehicle be a hybrid, and ceased manufacture of "disposable" item
Ludi wrote:gollum wrote:I'm inclined to agree, if we simply went to a 4 day business week, mandated that every new vehicle be a hybrid, and ceased manufacture of "disposable" item
What would you do about the people who rely on the "disposable" items for jobs? I'm not saying it might not be a good idea to transition to a non-disposable economy, but that would put a lot of people out of work. It's easy to say "just cut the fat" but if that's the plan, there needs to be provision for how people will make a living once their livelihood has been trimmed away.
Plantagenet wrote:Doesn't that seem overly optimistic? How are we supposed to go along just fine for another 20 years when just the first little bump into global supply limitations in 2008 sent the world economy into a tailspin ----
Fredrik wrote:
If we first cut out the "loose fat" - replaced private automobiles with carpooling/buses/trains/bikes, stopped manufacturing and transporting non-essential items etc., I believe there would be enough oil for growing and transporting food, producing drugs etc. for quite a few years.
Of course this requires that national governments take over, at least temporarily, to handle the transition (as stated in the article).
Oakley wrote:Fredrik wrote:
If we first cut out the "loose fat" - replaced private automobiles with carpooling/buses/trains/bikes, stopped manufacturing and transporting non-essential items etc., I believe there would be enough oil for growing and transporting food, producing drugs etc. for quite a few years.
Of course this requires that national governments take over, at least temporarily, to handle the transition (as stated in the article).
Yes, cutting out nonessential production would conserve some energy, but when does conservation lead to deprivation, and when does deprivation lead to death. If oil is cut in half, then production related to that half disappears. What happens to the people who depend on that production to earn a living; does their living cease?
I think it is optimistic to think that a national government take over is even feasible or wise. Look at the disaster that the USSR was when politicians and bureaucrats decided what was to be produced and who was to consume the production. Looking at the current ineffectiveness of government to deal with economic collapse, I question if they would be capable of dealing with the complexity of planning where to direct scarcer and scarcer oil, especially in such a short time span as 14 years, where each year the situation worsened. In the example of a 5% rate of decline in production, we are not just talking about the halving of production in 14 years, but another halving in the subsequent 14 years, etc., etc., etc.
Also consider that the first halving of oil production will be, in absolute terms, be the largest loss of oil during the entire long period of decline, just as the last doubling when production was expanding was the largest addition of production experienced during the entire expansion period. This will be shocking to the 6.7 billion world population.
It is astounding to think that it took all of a long human history to reach just 3/4 of a billion population around 1800 AD. The growth rate was very low. And then in just 200+ years that population exploded to 6.7 billion (still growing). This is an unprecedented rate of growth and correlates to the output of the industrial age, which age was driven by the exploitation of fossil fuels over that time frame. I just don't see how we can have a reversal of the major component of energy, oil, without a reversal of population. We may quibble about what output should or can be eliminated first, but ultimately population levels must follow energy production levels, perhaps with a slight lag. Anything else seems to me to be hopeful thinking.
Oakley wrote:Yes, cutting out nonessential production would conserve some energy, but when does conservation lead to deprivation, and when does deprivation lead to death. If oil is cut in half, then production related to that half disappears. What happens to the people who depend on that production to earn a living; does their living cease?
Oakley wrote:I think it is optimistic to think that a national government take over is even feasible or wise. Look at the disaster that the USSR was when politicians and bureaucrats decided what was to be produced and who was to consume the production. Looking at the current ineffectiveness of government to deal with economic collapse, I question if they would be capable of dealing with the complexity of planning where to direct scarcer and scarcer oil, especially in such a short time span as 14 years, where each year the situation worsened. In the example of a 5% rate of decline in production, we are not just talking about the halving of production in 14 years, but another halving in the subsequent 14 years, etc., etc., etc.
Oakley wrote:Also consider that the first halving of oil production will be, in absolute terms, be the largest loss of oil during the entire long period of decline, just as the last doubling when production was expanding was the largest addition of production experienced during the entire expansion period. This will be shocking to the 6.7 billion world population.
Oakley wrote:We may quibble about what output should or can be eliminated first, but ultimately population levels must follow energy production levels, perhaps with a slight lag. Anything else seems to me to be hopeful thinking.
Pops wrote:I don't know how fuel prices in Europe increased. Did they rise steadily over time on some schedule or have they simply always been much higher?
Nano wrote:I think the people here who say: "there's nothing new in this report" are missing the point entirely. It's very significant that these scientist are talking about forced changes to foreign policy and politics due to peak oil. I haven't seen any government agency anywhere state things as bluntly as that. It's very significant.
But its not unthinkable that we muddle through that period without too much anarchy and emerge the better for it. Of course, during that period of strife, I and a lot of my oblivous friends, family and colleagues are going to find ourselves working like packmules and living like churchrats, but if that's what it will take for my children to have a life, no problem, i'm not going to cry about it!
eastbay wrote:http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html
Above find the link to the der Spiegel article.
pstarr, the German military refused to comment leaving the 'why 15 to 30 years from now' question unanswered.
eastbay wrote:The point of the hard-hitting study and the growing concern is that there will not be a civilized 'emerging' from this period. The increasingly expressed concern and the preliminary conclusion of this draft study is that it's Game Over. That means 'no afterwards' ... no 'emerging'. This is difficult for any of us to fathom.
Nano wrote:For people who depend on 'shopping' and chasing after every new gadget, tourist location or piece of textile ...
Ludi wrote:Nano wrote:For people who depend on 'shopping' and chasing after every new gadget, tourist location or piece of textile ...
...or jobs.
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