[JuanP]

Most have ALWAYS prioritized short term "benefits" over long term costs.

In the Middle Ages people built cathedrals over the span of a century. Some 19th century projects were deliberately designed to last for about that long. So, not always.

I don't know whose quote that was, but they did say MOST, not ALL, so they are correct, and you are not.

[AdamB]

I can name at least 3 others.....of even larger long term consequence than what the most recent has accomplished...can you?

Hell, no! Such things don't interest me at all.

See how depressing peak oil has become!! Happened years ago now and instead of MREs and ammo and MZBs, we sit around talking about inflation. As though in the US it is this new and exciting thing as though it hasn't happened before. Wrapped around another global peak oil 39 years earlier.

Everybody here knows I am NOT a fossil fuels specialist of any kind.

What does that have to do with it? I can name handfulls of those who are fully credentialed, and ended up with egg on their face. Sometimes again and again.

Ah well...

My main interests are overpopulation, unsustainable use of resources, pollution consequences, and environmental changes. This is a hobby for me! No amount of money could make me work on or specialize in anything fossil fuels related. I deeply dislike fossil fuels and internal combustion engines, among many other things. But I don't care what other people do. We are all different, fortunately! Thank heavens for people like you that allow people like me to focus on other, to me more interesting, things! I would find studying or working on the fossil fuels industry EXTREMELY boring.

You are focusing on one tree; I am interested in the forest. Fossil fuels are a very tiny part of my forest.

Oh, not focused on, just an expert in that one tree. I'm a fan of overpopulation as well, use of renewables in general (or not), the pollution we continue to dump into the biosphere, and mankinds generally scum bag attitude when it comes to solutions to the problem. Which aren't difficult to do, just horrifying when it comes to the lifestyle change involved.

What good is sentience when we aren't any smarter than cockroaches in a bucket with a 5# bag of sugar to enjoy? Until....it's gone.

[JuanP]

I can name at least 3 others.....of even larger long term consequence than what the most recent has accomplished...can you?

Hell, no! Such things don't interest me at all.

See how depressing peak oil has become!! Happened years ago now and instead of MREs and ammo and MZBs, we sit around talking about inflation. As though in the US it is this new and exciting thing as though it hasn't happened before. Wrapped around another global peak oil 39 years earlier.

Everybody here knows I am NOT a fossil fuels specialist of any kind.

What does that have to do with it? I can name handfulls of those who are fully credentialed, and ended up with egg on their face. Sometimes again and again.

Ah well...

My main interests are overpopulation, unsustainable use of resources, pollution consequences, and environmental changes. This is a hobby for me! No amount of money could make me work on or specialize in anything fossil fuels related. I deeply dislike fossil fuels and internal combustion engines, among many other things. But I don't care what other people do. We are all different, fortunately! Thank heavens for people like you that allow people like me to focus on other, to me more interesting, things! I would find studying or working on the fossil fuels industry EXTREMELY boring.

You are focusing on one tree; I am interested in the forest. Fossil fuels are a very tiny part of my forest.

Oh, not focused on, just an expert in that one tree. I'm a fan of overpopulation as well, use of renewables in general (or not), the pollution we continue to dump into the biosphere, and mankinds generally scum bag attitude when it comes to solutions to the problem. Which aren't difficult to do, just horrifying when it comes to the lifestyle change involved.

What good is sentience when we aren't any smarter than cockroaches in a bucket with a 5# bag of sugar to enjoy? Until....it's gone.

Good points!

[JuanP]

"Saudi Arabia: no additional capacity to increase oil production beyond 13 million bpd"
https://www.thenationalnews.com/busines ... llion-bpd/

"Saudi Arabia will not have any additional capacity to increase oil production beyond 13 million barrels per day, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said during his address to the US-Arab summit in Jeddah.

“The kingdom has announced an increase in its production capacity level to 13 million barrels per day, after which the kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production,” he said.

The kingdom previously said it was aiming at production capacity of 13 million bpd by 2027."

So, MbS claims that the KSA will be producing 13 Mbpd on or before 2027. I'll have to see it to believe it! I believe the KSA is pumping flat out, and its production is more likely to decline than increase in the next 5 years.

2016 KSA oil production:

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/saudi-arabia-oil/

[C8]

"Saudi Arabia: no additional capacity to increase oil production beyond 13 million bpd"
https://www.thenationalnews.com/busines ... llion-bpd/

"Saudi Arabia will not have any additional capacity to increase oil production beyond 13 million barrels per day, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said during his address to the US-Arab summit in Jeddah.

“The kingdom has announced an increase in its production capacity level to 13 million barrels per day, after which the kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production,” he said.

The kingdom previously said it was aiming at production capacity of 13 million bpd by 2027."

So, MbS claims that the KSA will be producing 13 Mbpd on or before 2027. I'll have to see it to believe it! I believe the KSA is pumping flat out, and its production is more likely to decline than increase in the next 5 years.

2016 KSA oil production:

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/saudi-arabia-oil/

SA gives heavy subsidies for its own people to enjoy cheap oil. If they remove these, things will get messy. To maintain stability at home, they will have to sell less to other nations and keep more at home to set aside for the future.

I think SA believes that, with Biden's hampering domestic US production, the US is no longer a threat to flood the market with oil and drive down prices. SA knows it can hold back production and drive up prices w/o triggering mass US drilling.

The Greens have put OPEC in the driver's seat by shutting down western oil.

[Doly]

So, MbS claims that the KSA will be producing 13 Mbpd on or before 2027.

Actually, he claims that the production capacity will be increased to 13 Mbpd, probably in case they ever want to spike to that level (they spiked to 12 Mbpd at one point).

[JuanP]

So, MbS claims that the KSA will be producing 13 Mbpd on or before 2027.

Actually, he claims that the production capacity will be increased to 13 Mbpd, probably in case they ever want to spike to that level (they spiked to 12 Mbpd at one point).

You are correct! I expressed myself inadequately and made a mistake. What you said is what I meant to say. Thanks for the correction! The link I provided above states that the KSA's oil production was 12.4 Mbpd in 2016.

[Plantagenet]

I think SA believes that, with Biden's hampering domestic US production, the US is no longer a threat to flood the market with oil and drive down prices. SA knows it can hold back production and drive up prices w/o triggering mass US drilling.

The Greens have put OPEC in the driver's seat by shutting down western oil.

Exactly right.

The scientists are 100% right that greenhouse warming is a big problem and we have to cut down on our use of fossil fuels. However, Biden and the other world leaders have totally bungled their climate change policies. They lie and try to greenwash fossil fuels....like Biden did just yesterday.

Biden claims he want to end fossil fuel use, but the use of coal is currently going up in the USA due to Biden's bad policies, and just yesterday Biden made a fool out of himself by going to Saudi Arabia and begging the Saudis to produce more oil.


Joe Biden: I'm against fossil fuels! (Psssst....Prince Muhammad....pretty please I'm begging ya produce more oil and give me every drop of oil you can!!!....I won't even call you a pariah state again...you can trust me....pinky promise???

Cheers!

[C8]

Sunday, July 17, 2022
Energy consultancy keeps lowering worldwide recoverable oil resources
It's hard to say that three years makes a trend. But one of the world's major energy consulting firms has lowered its estimate of world oil reserves for three years in a row now.

Rystad Energy provides a publicly available analysis of world oil reserves each year. In 2020 Rystad wrote that "the world’s recoverable oil [dropped] by around 282 billion barrels." That represented a 12.9 percent decline in just one year. In 2021 the firm stated its analysis showed that recoverable resources declined by another 178 billion barrels or about 9.4 percent. Rystad said the decline was due in part to new modelling based on resources "at well level rather than field level." The closer Rystad looked, the less oil there seemed to be.

In 2022 Rystad noted yet another decline of almost 9 percent in its press release headline. Recoverable oil resources dropped another 152 billion barrels. (For all estimates Rystad uses figures for crude oil and lease condensate which is the accepted definition of oil.)

With estimated recoverable resources standing at 1.572 trillion barrels, there is no seeming immediate threat to oil supplies. But the trend, should it continue, would be troublesome. There is a lot to look at "under the hood" of these estimates. Rystad reduces its broad 2022 estimate to an amount it believes could be produced profitably if oil is around $50, namely 1.2 trillion barrels. Price always matters when talking about recoverable resources. Higher prices, of course, make harder-to-get resources more likely to be profitable.

Rystad notes the lowering of investment in oil exploration as one of the culprits. This drop has been driven by the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic and a world about to be ever more stringent regarding fossil fuel emissions.

Companies and countries holding oil under their soil have long been known to exaggerate. Lack of independent audits among the world's government-owned oil companies should give us pause. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait all have national oil companies that control oil development within those countries. For a more comprehensive list, see here.

Because of the lack of transparency into much of the world's oil resources, we are left taking the word of governments, many of whom are part of OPEC—and those OPEC members have an incentive to inflate their reserves in order to increase their OPEC production quotas because those quotas are based in part on the size of members' reserves. It's worth noting that OPEC countries claim to have 80 percent of recoverable world oil resources. (For a more detailed analysis of this issue, see my 2012 piece "Has OPEC misled us about the size of its oil reserves? Does it matter?" which is still almost entirely relevant.)

Those of us who've been skeptical about recoverable oil reserve claims are not particularly surprised that estimates of worldwide reserves are falling. Another part of the story is that new discoveries meant to replace reserves produced each year are not nearly as great as consumption for many years running. Worldwide consumption has hovered between 27 and 30 billion barrels per year in the last decade. But new discoveries have been far behind with the highest year showing 12.9 billion barrels (2012) of discovery for data from 2011 through 2018. Rystand notes that discoveries were 12.2 billion barrels in 2019 and 10 billion barrels in 2020. But these numbers include turning natural gas discoveries into what their equivalent would be in terms of oil based on their energy content. Last year the industry discovered the lowest amount of oil and gas combined since 1946.

The optimists tell us that this will soon all be reversed. They have been saying that for a decade. In the meantime the price of oil—which was already rising before the Russian/Ukraine conflict—has vaulted upward. The ultimate effect may be a deep recession. Some 10 out of the last 11 post World War II recessions have been preceded by spikes in the price of oil.

It's a pattern we'll likely have to get used to unless the luck of the optimists turns around.

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/20 ... .html#more

If OPEC decides to pump less to keep up prices, then they have no more incentive to lie about their level of reserves? Maybe we discover the truth?

[JuanP]

"Russia sends record volumes of gas to China"
"Exports soared by 60% in the first half of the year"

https://www.rt.com/business/559181-russ ... gas-china/

"Russia delivered a record daily volume of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline on Sunday, energy giant Gazprom announced.

The supplies were delivered under a long-term contract between Gazprom and the Chinese company CNPC, the energy giant said in a statement on its Telegram channel on Monday.

Earlier this month the Russian company reported that pipeline gas exports to China grew by over 60% in the first six months of this year. The Power of Siberia is part of the eastern gas route from Siberia to China. A major buyer of Russian energy, China also imports liquefied natural gas from the country.

The increase to China follows a massive reduction of gas flow to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline last month. Gazprom blamed it on a technical issue resulting from the international sanctions placed on Russia. Moscow has repeatedly said that it remains a reliable supplier of natural gas and will stick to contractual obligations to its customers."

The Russians don't seem to have any problems selling their fossil fuels to non-Western nations.

[C8]

"Russia sends record volumes of gas to China"
"Exports soared by 60% in the first half of the year"

https://www.rt.com/business/559181-russ ... gas-china/

"Russia delivered a record daily volume of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline on Sunday, energy giant Gazprom announced.

The supplies were delivered under a long-term contract between Gazprom and the Chinese company CNPC, the energy giant said in a statement on its Telegram channel on Monday.

Earlier this month the Russian company reported that pipeline gas exports to China grew by over 60% in the first six months of this year. The Power of Siberia is part of the eastern gas route from Siberia to China. A major buyer of Russian energy, China also imports liquefied natural gas from the country.

The increase to China follows a massive reduction of gas flow to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline last month. Gazprom blamed it on a technical issue resulting from the international sanctions placed on Russia. Moscow has repeatedly said that it remains a reliable supplier of natural gas and will stick to contractual obligations to its customers."

The Russians don't seem to have any problems selling their fossil fuels to non-Western nations.

Obama said Biden was a fuck up but I underestimated him, I did not think he had the power to re-ignite the Cold War but he has. If he stands next to your house, you had better get out because its gonna collapse. Maybe he can ride a bike- I don't know.

[Doly]

If OPEC decides to pump less to keep up prices, then they have no more incentive to lie about their level of reserves? Maybe we discover the truth?

MbS described the peak oil situation (differentiating it from the fantasy "peak oil demand") in an interview recently, saying how long the supply of different major producers would last. So they aren't lying any more:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1HfRhfHwUc&t=1299s

[AdamB]

If OPEC decides to pump less to keep up prices, then they have no more incentive to lie about their level of reserves? Maybe we discover the truth?

MbS described the peak oil situation (differentiating it from the fantasy "peak oil demand") in an interview recently, saying how long the supply of different major producers would last. So they aren't lying any more:

You seem intelligent. Are you truly unaware of how supply and demand work, in at least a basic form?

[C8]

Japan Signs Its Most Expensive Coal Supply Deal Ever

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -Ever.html

Japan paying lots for coal- when nations pay a lot of money for coal, then you know things aren't going as planned as coal was supposed to be phased out. Everything that can be burnt WILL be burnt, the question is: by who? The booming population of the third world will not listen to western lectures on climate change created by western nations. Even first world nations will be scrambling for dirty fuels as their plans go sideways.

Nothing goes "as planned"

[C8]

A former aviation minister, Osita Chidoka, has said terrorists in Nigeria are aware that the country is broke, saying that is why they are intensifying attacks on the government.

Chidoka disclosed this while discussing the security situation in Nigeria on Channels Television on Friday.

Police beef up security in Kano after report of attack on zonal headquarters
Naira devaluation: EFCC raids Bureau De Change in Abuja
“The fact is Nigeria is in a complex and complicated situation now. The complicated situation is worsened by economic problem.

“This is the root of the problem in Nigeria. They [Federal Government] can not raise the funding to continue to carry out operations in the Northwest and Northeast.

“If you can not control the oil theft in the Niger Delta, I mean in the last three months, NNPC has come with the fact that they don’t have any money to pay [the federal government]. They said ‘we don’t have any money because we are using it for subsidy’.

“There is no way the institutions of government could be well funded, absolutely no way because the government is not receiving any revenue.

“The fact that we are borrowing from the Central Bank, the fact that we are printing currency and we are finding ways and means to fund our budget is already a red flag.

“The terrorists know that the Nigerian state is at its weakest level, it has no revenue, it has no monopoly of violence, it has no unity behind it, it has no national consensus supporting it.

“That, for me, is the biggest problem that Nigeria is facing. The terror organisations now have RPGs, they now have anti-aircraft, they have sophisticated weapons and they know that the Nigerian state is on its knees. The Nigerian state is now fully comatose.”

He also said the military has no business participating in the internal security of the country, saying military personnel are not trained to do law enforcement.

Chidoka said, with the deployment of the military, it was obvious the policing system in the country had failed.

“In the last seven years, nobody has made effort to rehabilitate the Mobile Police Force into a competent fighting force that we can use for internal security,” he added.

The former minister said history had shown that the military was not made for operations bordering on internal security, recalling that the Colombians had to form a specialised force to deal with its own insurrection.

He called for better supervision of the service chiefs by the president in order to get the best results from their activities.

https://dailytrust.com/iswap-boko-haram ... el-chidoka

This is what happens when an energy crisis and a crisis of lawlessness collide- coming soon to the US as we print ever more money, let criminals run free, and keep expanding social spending to destroy the work ethic.

[AdamB]

https://dailytrust.com/iswap-boko-haram ... el-chidoka

This is what happens when an energy crisis and a crisis of lawlessness collide- coming soon to the US as we print ever more money, let criminals run free, and keep expanding social spending to destroy the work ethic.

How right of center would you consider yourself C8? None at all, a little, alot?

[Doly]

You seem intelligent. Are you truly unaware of how supply and demand work, in at least a basic form?

I am aware of how they work. Are you? Because you often sound as if you believe that demand can conjure up supply out of thin air.

[AdamB]

You seem intelligent. Are you truly unaware of how supply and demand work, in at least a basic form?

I am aware of how they work. Are you? Because you often sound as if you believe that demand can conjure up supply out of thin air.

You are reading into what I say something I don't claim, state, mean or even imply. Demand no more conjures supply than Santa Claus is real. Just by saying this, it implies you AREN'T familiar with the supply/demand/price relationship. Can you describe how you think the relationship works, in relation to crude oil?

We can start even more basic if you'd like. Do you know the difference in the economists world between demand and consumption? I usually use the words interchangably because real live economists are hard to find around here except Dennis. Most folks, when they say demand, actually mean consumption. Demand is a more theoretical concept than consumption, and that matters.

[Plantagenet]

Saudi Arabia announces it will reach peak oil in 2027.

saudi-arabia-announces-peak-production-in-2027

The peak of Saudi Arabian oil production so far occurred in 2018............and they are still below that level now.

You'd think Joe Biden doing a fist bump with Prince Muhammad would convince the Saudis to turn on the oil spigots.....but so far they are still waaaaay below their 2018 peak in oil production.


Please please please pump more oil you pariah nation you..........

Cheers!

[C8]

https://dailytrust.com/iswap-boko-haram ... el-chidoka

This is what happens when an energy crisis and a crisis of lawlessness collide- coming soon to the US as we print ever more money, let criminals run free, and keep expanding social spending to destroy the work ethic.

How right of center would you consider yourself C8? None at all, a little, alot?

None- I favor limited abortion rights (12 wks), national health care (or better yet, deregulation), lower military budget, campaign finance limits, high taxes on billionaires (and a wealth tax on them!), equal rights for all, welfare, SS, free college (but strict tests to get in), expanded nature preserves, public transit, etc. etc.

Does this surprise you? I voted Democrat all my life until the last decade. Bill Clinton was "my guy".

But the Democrats have continued to move so far left that I can't support most of their agenda anymore. They have taken over every institution in America and are now our greatest threat to freedom. Lockdowns, the cancel culture, defunding those who you disagree with, removing videos, silencing speech, physically attacking politicians, ballot harvesting have all come from Democrats. Once they get total power it will be game over for democracy. They, not Republicans, are now the party of the super rich and the corporations- all the stats show this.

Don't be a "party man" Adam- think for yourself