[sicophiliac]

On a side note does anybody have any recommendations on oil etfs or etns to buy once prices bounce back up as we all know they will ?

[shortonsense]

I caught it else where Army. It was funny. And as long as you don't change your avatar you can be as big an asshat around here as you like.

Don't worry, she's not going anywhere. Here is another one for you

What's her name?

NOW WE'RE TALKING.

We need more of this, less of some of these silly theories people keep coming up with. Peak Oil Causes Price Crash! I don't remember anyone claiming THIS sort of stuff 6 months ago when all the cheerleading was going on.

BRING ON THE CHIC PICS!

[joewp]

NOW WE'RE TALKING.

We need more of this, less of some of these silly theories people keep coming up with. Peak Oil Causes Price Crash! I don't remember anyone claiming THIS sort of stuff 6 months ago when all the cheerleading was going on.

BRING ON THE CHIC PICS!

Have fun - click here

[rdsaltpower]

surefired way to derail a peak oil train! lol bring it on!

[TheDude]

Leanan posted that $.01/bbl ticker at TOD. Maybe we'll get there? Or a negative price - get paid to consume.

Augh, that avatar's always been a terrible distraction. Didn't realize it was the chick from 24, thought it was Jessica Simpson or some other yarbling ditz.

[lorenzo]

I caught it else where Army. It was funny. And as long as you don't change your avatar you can be as big an asshat around here as you like.

Don't worry, she's not going anywhere. Here is another one for you

What's her name?

Mrs KevO

So this forum is finally becoming the ordinary porn hub many of us predicted it to become.

[shortonsense]

So this forum is finally becoming the ordinary porn hub many of us predicted it to become.

After peak oil caused happy motoring again, we have to do SOMETHING to get all worked up.

[UncoveringTruths]

The oil market has been undergoing dramatic changes since record prices back in July. Let's get straight to the pocketbook. The U.S. average for a gallon of unleaded is around $1.68 according to AAA. That's a whopping 59% off the national average record of $4.11 a gallon in mid July, when peak-oil theorists were signaling a genuine end of the crude barrel.

As my guest, investor and Infectious Greed blogger Paul Kedrosky notes, domestic fuel consumption has risen with consumers apparently taking advantage of cheaper prices, according to the latest MasterCard Spending Pulse report. So why haven't global oil prices followed the trend?

U.S. Gasoline Demand Rising as Prices Plunge

[copious.abundance]

SpendingPulse only tracks purchases made via MasterCards. With prices going down, more people are likely paying for their gas with cash rather than credit cards. So that report doesn't capture all the data.

As I've been reporting in the other thread, here are the actual numbers from the EIA. Gasoline consumption in the past 2 weeks is down 3.2% from the year-earlier periods.

Percentage rise or fall in US oil consumption ("product supplied") from year earlier period, 2008, 4-week average

Source

Week = Week ending
TPS = Total Product Supplied
G = Gasoline
D = Distillates
J = Jet fuel

Week____TPS____G____D____J__
1/4______+2.6___+0.4___+4.9___-3.1
1/11_____+2.2___+1.2___+2.1___-3.3
1/18_____+1.5___+1.1___+0.3___-4.0
1/25_____+1.1___+1.4___-0.4___-4.8
2/1______+0.3___+1.0___-0.7___-4.3
2/8______-1.0___+0.4___-2.8___-5.1
2/15_____-1.1___+0.5___-1.9___-3.4
2/22 ____-2.4___+0.4___-3.5___-3.7
2/29_____-3.4___+0.4___-4.4___-4.6
3/7______-2.7___+0.4___-4.2___-0.4
3/14_____-3.2___-0.1___-5.4___-0.2
3/21_____-2.2___-0.3___-4.0___+1.6
3/28_____-1.3____0.0___-3.1___+3.7
4/4______-0.4___+0.3____0.0___-0.4
4/11_____+0.1___+0.8___-0.9___-3.0
4/18_____+0.8___+0.9___+0.5___-1.3
4/25_____+0.5___+0.4___+0.7___-4.2
5/2______+0.1___+0.3___-0.5___-5.8
5/9 _____-0.3___-0.2___+0.8___-5.3
5/16_____-1.3___-0.4___+0.7___-5.6
5/23_____-0.7___-0.4___+1.2___-2.9
5/30_____-1.1___-1.4___+1.6___+0.3
6/6______-1.3___-1.3___+0.7___+0.4
6/13_____-1.3___-1.8___-0.4___-1.9
6/20_____-2.3___-2.1___-1.1___-3.6
6/27_____-1.9___-1.7___-0.5___-3.5
7/4______-1.8___-2.1___+1.3___-2.2
7/11_____-2.0___-2.1___+2.5___-0.5
7/18_____-2.1___-2.4___+3.6___-2.5
7/25_____-2.4___-2.4___+4.0___-6.8
8/1______-2.6___-2.3___+3.5___-7.1
8/8______-2.8___-1.9___+4.3___-8.5
8/15_____-3.0___-1.6___+3.3___-6.2
8/22_____-3.6___-1.6___+2.2___-6.9
8/29_____-3.5___-1.6___+2.7___-9.3
9/5______-3.8___-2.1___-0.4____-7.6
9/12_____-4.4___-2.6___-2.7____-7.6
9/19_____-5.3___-3.5___-5.5____-4.5
9/26_____-7.1___-4.5___-8.4____-1.5
10/3_____-8.6___-5.3___-8.3____-5.5
10/10____-8.9___-5.2___-6.9____-6.4
10/17____-8.5___-4.3___-5.8____-9.2
10/24____-7.8___-3.4___-5.2____-13.1
10/31____-6.7___-2.3___-4.8____-15.9
11/7_____-6.6___-1.9___-4.6____-18.8
11/14____-7.0___-2.2___-3.3____-20.3
11/21____-6.6___-2.8___-2.2____-17.7
11/28____-6.2___-3.2___-2.2____-16.7
12/5_____-6.1___-3.2___-4.0____-16.8

[TheDude]

Gambling in this casino. Anticipate breach of the levees. That kind of thing.

Increases in Gasoline Consumption Are Kept to a Minimum by Recession

Gasoline demand edged up almost 1% last week from the previous week, according to a U.S. Energy Department report Wednesday. It was still 3.6% lower than last year, according to weekly data, but the drop was less severe than the average year-over-year declines of 3.8% in October and 4.2% in September.

Another indicator, the SpendingPulse data based on gasoline-station purchases compiled by MasterCard Advisors, showed that consumers pumped 0.3% more gasoline last week than in the same period last year, the first time that has happened since April.

The improvement, though, is minimal considering the dramatic drop-off in gasoline prices. The national average price for a regular gallon has collapsed by almost 60%, to $1.68 a regular gallon Wednesday from a peak of $4.11 a gallon in July, according to data from the auto group AAA.

"You would expect to see a huge increase in demand," said Doug MacIntyre, an energy analyst with the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "The reason you don't see it is simply the economy."

[AirlinePilot]

I say give it a chance, I believe gas will come down just a bit more before these prices level off. Demand will climb as we move farther into the future with these low prices. Silly Humans have a short memory.

[rockdoc123]

I mentioned on another thread that some of the seeming discrepency could be due to the fact that much of the demand falloff recently has been in the industrial useage due to a faltering economy. Consumer demand for fuel only makes up a bit more than half of the total. As a consequence you could see consumers continuing to drive everywhere due to lower gas prices while at the same time industrial users are cutting back due to decreased demand for their products.

[TWilliam]

SpendingPulse only tracks purchases made via MasterCards. With prices going down, more people are likely paying for their gas with cash rather than credit cards. So that report doesn't capture all the data.

I can't help but wonder if the increase in use of credit cards for gasoline over the last few months might not in fact be a knock-on effect of rising unemployment. Less cash in pocket, so falling back to the plastic, along with an actual increase in driving as people look for work in addition to their usual household travel...

[copious.abundance]

I can't help but wonder if the increase in use of credit cards for gasoline over the last few months . . .

How do you know there is an increase in the use of credit cards for gasoline purchase in the last few months? Please provide a link.

. . . might not in fact be a knock-on effect of rising unemployment. Less cash in pocket, so falling back to the plastic, along with an actual increase in driving as people look for work in addition to their usual household travel...

On the other hand, all those unemployed people won't be driving to work everyday. Additionally, the bulk of a job search these days is done from one's home computer via the internet, not by driving around to place after place. So the likelihood is that unemployed people, on average, will do less driving, not more, than when they were employed.

[heroineworshipper]

3 months ago it was mostly small cars & traffic was bearable. Today there's nothing but SUV's on the road & traffic is solid every day.

[TWilliam]

I can't help but wonder if the increase in use of credit cards for gasoline over the last few months . . .

How do you know there is an increase in the use of credit cards for gasoline purchase in the last few months?

It's called deductive reasoning. As indicated in the OP's linked article, the claim that gasoline consumption has increased is based upon data from Mastercard Advisors Spending Pulse report. According to their website,

SpendingPulse reports on national retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and check.

Note that the only actual data they have is Mastercard transactions; they only estimate the value of non-Mastercard payment methods, presumably making a broad assumption that if card purchases increase then purchases paid for via alternate means do as well. Since we have the actual EIA numbers above showing that consumption is in fact down, it is therefore logical to conclude that Mastercard's incorrect assumption that overall purchases are up is based on their actual card purchase data showing an increase in card use for gasoline purchases.

Additionally, the bulk of a job search these days is done from one's home computer via the internet, not by driving around to place after place. So the likelihood is that unemployed people, on average, will do less driving, not more, than when they were employed.

I disagree. Online job searching is simply the modern day version of newspaper want ads. While the initial searching for employment opportunities might occur online, interviews still occur largely in person.

[Blacksmith]

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

One born every minute.

[copious.abundance]

Well unless you've got actual data from Visa and American Express, then it remains just a "deductive reasoning." And as rockdoc123 mentioned above, a lot of gasoline consumption is tied to industrial usage, so making inferences about vehicular gasoline consumption based on data from *just* MasterCard purchases in combination with *all* data from the EIA is a bit tricky.

Of course people drive to job interviews. But unless they've got very frequent interviews, they're likely still driving less than they did when they had a job. Having been on many job hunts myself, the frequency of interviews does not make up for the lack of driving to work, even taking into account often long drives to interviews.

[TWilliam]

Well unless you've got actual data from Visa and American Express, then it remains just a "deductive reasoning." And as rockdoc123 mentioned above, a lot of gasoline consumption is tied to industrial usage, so making inferences about vehicular gasoline consumption based on data from *just* MasterCard purchases in combination with *all* data from the EIA is a bit tricky.

Well yahh... as I said, I couldn't help wondering, subsequently offering one possible path of reasoning leading to that speculation; I never asserted it as fact.

On the other hand, what rockdoc mentioned was the fall in demand for industrial fuel, which as far as I know is largely diesel and kerosene, not gasoline, and aside from the fact that the SpendingPulse report targets specifically gasoline purchases, I'm doubtful that much of that industrial fuel is purchased with a Mastercard, seeing as how they are primarily a consumer credit provider. So I think my inference based on the data points provided is a reasonable one. An incorrect one maybe (and maybe not), but a reasonable one nonetheless...

[EdwinSm]

For PO concerns this could be good news, but for the economy bad news:



Posted by 'Mish' http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.fi/2013/01/annual-gasoline-usage-in-millions-of.html