Pops: If I were on the Titanic, would I sign up for my own life boat building course????
Hello Rockman,
I understand the need for fossil fuels in developing the alts. But I also understand the alts current limitations (e.g., solar in winter, range in a battery pack, life cycles, etc.) I'm also trying to figure out where we are going (Madmax, horse & buggy, bicycles & localization w/limited car usage, solar/renewable utopia, etc.). I think of "straw man" scenarios based on comments here and elsewhere to find the "truths", "half-truths", "lies" and the motives driving them. Maybe this is a fool's errand as John Michael Greer in his latest blog discussed: what Jew in Germany in 1943 could have foreseen the consequences of an anarchist shooting an archduke in the summer of 1914 would have on them? Still we plan for what we think we can foresee.
Natural gas is used to make concrete for roads and solar panels. The "dregs" of a barrel of oil are processed for asphalt for paving. The Romans used slaves to construct the Roman roads and paved them with stone. Pictures of the later say that modern cars on ancient Roman roads would keep the shock absorber people in business for a long time. This leads to the question of "What could be used to build roads without fossil fuels?" There is a gal who asked the question of how clams make shells at room temperature?. This has led her to developing a process for making bricks at room temperature using bacteria.
http://www.biomason.com/ Could these bricks eventually become strong and durable enough to be pavers to forego the need for concrete?
With the majors cutting back on CAPEX spending, is this a temporary situation awaiting the go ahead to drill in the Arctic or is it more permanent because there are fewer opportunities even in the Arctic? I do not have a good feel for that. The only thing I know is that we live on a planet with an abundance of elements and compounds that are increasingly more difficult and expensive to obtain.
I put a PV array on my roof along with a solar hot water system. In summer, I am a slight energy exporter. In March and October, I produce about 50% of my usage. In winter, I am at 27%. I could have taken this "CAPEX" money of mine and invested it in the Bakken, one of the majors, or one of the support companies. I might have made some good money in the short run and maybe longer. I also read your piece on Peak Oil Barrel about the Chinese buying into refineries and the effect it may have on us securing supply. Chilling.
I have always been curious and had an itch to see what I could do with solar in a mild but temperate climate. Thus the above effort. My next goal is to try to use solar thermal to raise the winter time solar contribution to where it might get chilly inside our home in January but we could cope. The glass will be produced using natural gas. The steel frame will be produced in part from coke. The wood will be hauled in from somewhere far and the concrete will be produced locally. All based on fossil fuels. In all, the cost of this will eventually be in the $50K-60K region.
Meanwhile, scientists at the Lawrence Burkeley National Labs have been working with Lithuium Sulphur to produce a better battery with 3x as much energy/kg as currently used in EVs. Solar City bought a company with a way of increasing the net efficiency of solar cells from 15% to maybe 24% while making the cells cheaper per watt. I see us working to make progress on the backs of fossil fuels. I guess I keep leaning toward the scenario that the alts will have a growing significance.
I think most of us recognize the danger and the limitations. Some will ask: Are we on the Titanic? If yes, do we need to build more life boats? Some will wait for the Carpathia.
Out west, we may get back to having cattle drives to the rail heads. Life will go on. I think I would rather be part of the solution than part of the problem.
Does this seem like a reason endeavor?