[MD]

There's a real possibility that Florida's east coast could be so devastated in the next couple days, that sufficient reason will emerge to delay or suspend November's elections.

A hurricane eye traveling north positioned right over the gulf stream, is... apocalyptic. Just can't think of a better word, despite its continual overuse.

Think of it as a high powered broom sweeping up beach, high rise, strip mall, electrical infrastructure, grocery store, water supply, and disrupting a twelve-mile-wide three-hundred-mile long density of population that is one of the highest on the planet.



I live on the west coast, and I am truly concerned about what may occur here, as populations flow west looking for relief, food, help.

I'm praying like hell that storm changes course real quick.

[vtsnowedin]

Are you ready to take in hurricane refugees if it comes to that?

[Ibon]

we walked this morning at 5:30am and looked at all the palms, mango trees, oaks, all so still and trimmed, the homes all so orderly, the clean street quiet and peaceful. with the full knowledge that in the next 12 hours all hell breaks loose

Gotta go get the shutters up

[MD]

Are you ready to take in hurricane refugees if it comes to that?

They're already on their way. I have a number of friends on the other coast.

[Tanada]

Best wishes for you and your friends MD!

As for delaying the election, Sandy slammed New Jersey and New York in 2012 and things went along normally. If by some chance Florida/Georgia/South Carolina delay their elections by a month it wouldn't be the first time a Presidential Election took a while to resolve itself. 21st Century 'Merican's are an impatient lot, but the law of the land allows things to be unresolved for several months if necessary.

[Newfie]

I can't see the elections being delayed. It will make a mess of the beach front and the barrier islands for sure.

Ibon, good luck. We have some friends, a young family, who live on a sail boat in Canaverial.

This will test your idea about housing prices. My prediction is an initial drop and rebound within 18 months with a building spree. Hope I'm right for your sake.

As for us, the predicted path is far enough out to sea to not effect our boat much. So no mad 12 hour trip to NC. WHEW!

[GHung]

I have in-laws on the east coast (Ft. Lauderdale area and Daytona Beach) who all say that, since it's been years since a storm like this has hit, many more recent arrivals to Florida are pretty clueless about dealing with these things. Many people leaving lawn chairs and other potential 'missiles' outside, and doing useless things like taping the glass in their windows.

Fortunately, our state (NC) looks like it'll be spared the worst this time, though flooding is still a concern. These storms always cost my state a lot, especially rebuilding roads and other infrastructure over and over. When will we get real and leave these coasts and barrier islands to nature? Inevitable at some point. Meanwhile, here in western NC, we're in the worst drought in a decade and wish this storm would come here into the mountains to die like they used to do every few years. It's one reason they built the TVA system; flood control.

As for the elections, much of the Democrat base in Florida is on the east/southeast coast. If the elections are delayed there, I'm sure the GOP will cry foul, and, if not, the DNC will probably bitch. Best hopes there's only minor damage.

[MD]

Hard to say about elections. It depends on how big this "event" turns out to be. Normally a hurricane hits the coast and drives inland, and the wind damage then decreases quickly, but not flooding. If this one cruises up just off the coast on the worst possible path... I dunno... we'll see.

As for around here, the school systems are closing tomorrow. More for use as evac centers than storm related concerns, at this point.

It's cloudy and breezy right now in the sarasota area. That's it.

[MD]

Up thread someone mentioned all the newbies in Florida, which is true. It's been ten years since a major hit, and just a couple months ago, the Sunday paper had an article crowing over how fat our state property insurance fund had grown (we operate a state insurance fund since the last wave drove a bunch of private insurers out of the market).

Lots of noise in the article about "reducing premiums", but I'm sure what was really going on in the State House was a bunch of fat-fingered politicians looking to get their hands on the fund. I hope they haven't had time to do it!

at the time I thought "uhoh... here comes another hit!" dumbass greedy politicians screw us over time and again...

oh and right now there are chainsaws and tree trimmers working all around. I live in a neighborhood of crackers. We'll be fine.

[Hawkcreek]

oh and right now there are chainsaws and tree trimmers working all around. I live in a neighborhood of crackers. We'll be fine.

When I was a kid in South Louisiana, we used to love hurricanes. We got to make as much extra spending money as we could stand. Literally daylight to dark, working our young asses off, sometimes for a couple of weeks. I suppose it is still that way.

[careinke]

oh and right now there are chainsaws and tree trimmers working all around. I live in a neighborhood of crackers. We'll be fine.

When I was a kid in South Louisiana, we used to love hurricanes. We got to make as much extra spending money as we could stand. Literally daylight to dark, working our young asses off, sometimes for a couple of weeks. I suppose it is still that way.

Probably not, that would be considered child endangerment nowadays.

[JuanP]

Reporting from Miami Beach I am glad to say that we have been spared down here. It looks like things might be worse further up North. We do have a lot of new people here in Florida who have absolutely no clue how bad something like this could be. I have met people who had no emergency supplies, had no evacuation plans, and no idea what to do. We still have power and water in Miami.

I spent two days pruning and cleaning at the community gardens and urban organic farm where I grow food and have my beehives and helping neighbors to prepare. I expect to spend the next three days helping people to recover from the damage. Today I spent the day kitesurfing and surfing. We had the best waves in more than 25 years in Miami Beach.

Haiti was devastated as usual. Cuba had some damage but no deaths. The Dominican Republic experienced some serious flooding. The next two days will be the most dangerous for Floridians. Stay safe!

[dohboi]

If people aren't physically prevented from voting, do you think that this could move voting patterns more in the Dem direction?

Dems are seen more as the type of leaders who care about people suffering from things like this, while Repugs are more like 'strong man' types, telling people to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps.

In situations like this, most people appreciate the former more than the latter.

Florida is one of the real toss ups--recent polling has Clinton up, but only by a statistically insignificant 1% or so, iirc.

So even a slight shift in voting patterns could make a difference.

It would take a bigger swing in attitudes to pull GA and South Carolina away from the dark side, errr, out of the Trump camp.

Meanwhile, an unusually blunt alarm from WeatherChannel: https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/stat ... 7012382723

"This is like no storm in the record books! We are concerned about people staying in mandatory evacuation areas. This is a mistake. This is not hype, this is not hyperbole, and I am not kidding. I can not overstate the danger of this storm..."

[mmasters]

The east coast is where all the dems live, this is pro for trump

[dohboi]

m, your forgot the West Coast, and the Upper Midwest, and Texas seems to be in the process of turning blue, and most of the southern Rocky states--CO, NM, Nevada, Arizona may be turning...

In other words, all that is reliably Repug is mostly the most backwards parts of the country--Appalachia, the 'shallow South (LA, MS, AL...), the Plains states and the northern Rockies. That these are also among the least populated states in the union does not bode well for the Drumpf.

But back to the 'cane:

"Broward and Miami-Dade counties, the most populous in Florida, both appeared likely to avoid the brunt of the storm. he National Weather Service on Thursday night downgraded the hurricane warning in Broward to a tropical storm warning."

So maybe our Ibon will come away relatively unscathed after all. (He's in Ft. Lauderdale in Broward Co, iirc.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pos ... 041ce82785

[Ibon]

m, your forgot the West Coast, and the Upper Midwest, and Texas seems to be in the process of turning blue, and most of the southern Rocky states--CO, NM, Nevada, Arizona may be turning...

In other words, all that is reliably Repug is mostly the most backwards parts of the country--Appalachia, the 'shallow South (LA, MS, AL...), the Plains states and the northern Rockies. That these are also among the least populated states in the union does not bode well for the Drumpf.

But back to the 'cane:

"Broward and Miami-Dade counties, the most populous in Florida, both appeared likely to avoid the brunt of the storm. he National Weather Service on Thursday night downgraded the hurricane warning in Broward to a tropical storm warning."

So maybe our Ibon will come away relatively unscathed after all. (He's in Ft. Lauderdale in Broward Co, iirc.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pos ... 041ce82785

We didn't even get a gust of wind over 30mph. Will take down the shutters tomorrow and clean up a few leaves in the pool. We were spared and Mathew continues to stay off shore as it moves up the coast.

[jedrider]

Our election certainly appears to be a NATURAL disaster in the making. It will be like a one-two punch.

[dohboi]

Very good to hear, Ibon!! You 'lived to fight another day"!

Let us know as you hear any local news/reactions we may not be privy to.

Just curious if this near brush with disaster has made you even more eager to offload your Florida property, and if you have any insights into what others in the are might be thinking along those lines.

[onlooker]

Dohboi you stated that it was past time for low lying coastal areas to be evacuated. But the logistics and expenses would be tremendous. I see more of an attrition scenario whereby individually people just make the decision to pack up and leave. A coordinated statewide undertaking to evacuate in a state like Florida is still not a scenario I see happening soon

[MD]

So far communities from Miami up through West Palm Beach have been spared from "apocalyptic" outcomes.

The storm is staying far enough out to sea to avoid any major damage except to beaches. The Army Corp will be receiving urgent pleas for restoration projects starting about next week.

Daytona, Jax, and those states up north will receive the worst of it, and O-bummer has unleashed FEMA, but at least for now it looks like little chance of reason to mess with the upcoming.