[dolanbaker]

http://www.news-press.com/article/20120826/BUSINESS/308260019/Energy-expert-says-world-s-oil-production-has-peaked?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Home|s
Every year in August there is a weeklong event, the Oil & Gas Conference. It’s in Denver and draws an international audience. By most accounts EnerCom is the best on the schedule.This year 121 companies were scheduled to make presentations. If I were allowed to hear only one presentation, and attend one breakout session, I’d choose Core Labs — hands down.
“The maximum yearly oil production of the planet is taking place now!” That came from the CEO of a Netherlands-based company that has 70 offices in 50 countries worldwide. Their business is analyzing drilling results for all major companies and hundreds of smaller firms in the global energy-finding industry.
The company, Core Labs (NYSE: CLB $121), has a unique view of the big picture that few, if any, others could envision. As a byproduct of their normal business activities, CLB accumulates data about the current status of all major oil and gas basins on the planet. Annual revenues are $1 billion.
While an exploration company is drilling, CLB evaluates the rock samples and evaluates the potential of finding oil and gas below. After an oil or gas field is producing, CLB helps the well operators to extract the maximum amount of hydrocarbons from the reservoir. Information that extensive about all the major energy basins in 50 countries is a unique collection of data.
Never very bashful in the breakout session, CEO Dave Demshur readily offered his thoughts about the big energy picture. When queried about predictions of increased oil availability he took the under in most cases. Basically he looks for flat, or lower, future oil generation from Mexico, Iraq, Iran, North Sea, Russia, and the shocker — Saudi Arabia.
Demshur is a “peak oil” proponent, meaning that at some point the oil production of the planet will maximize, flatten, and then diminish. For the first time I can recall, he said we have reached the peak. His estimated planetary oil production in 2012 is an average 88 million barrels per day.
If anyone is more informed about the future supply of oil I haven’t found them. Let’s hope that his calculations are low, but if not — the 1970s may look like a picnic. By my pencil this is not a drill.

Someone calling the peak! Is he right, if so, then the fun's about to start!

We've already had a "recession" caused in part by supplies failing to keep up with the demand required to provide economic growth, how are the global economies going to adapt to flatlining oil production let alone declining supply.

[seahorse3]

Nice find. Enjoyed the article. Time will tell.

[dohboi]

http://www.news-press.com/article/20120826/BUSINESS/308260019/Energy-expert-says-world-s-oil-production-has-peaked?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Home|s

Energy expert says world's oil production has peaked

“The maximum yearly oil production of the planet is taking place now!” That came from the CEO of a Netherlands-based company that has 70 offices in 50 countries worldwide. Their business is analyzing drilling results for all major companies and hundreds of smaller firms in the global energy-finding industry.

The company, Core Labs, has a unique view of the big picture that few, if any, others could envision. As a byproduct of their normal business activities, CLB accumulates data about the current status of all major oil and gas basins on the planet…

Basically he looks for flat, or lower, future oil generation from Mexico, Iraq, Iran, North Sea, Russia, and the shocker — Saudi Arabia.

Here are links to the individual talks at the conference referred to in the above article:

http://www.theoilandgasconference.com/webcast.shtml

Check out especially the third talk (at 10:30 EST) by the CEO of Core Labs, who says we are on a plateau and we will come off the plateau in 3-4 years at around the 6:00 minute mark.

And don't forget Robert Hirsch, who earlier this year said we would come off the plateau in 1-4 years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIWg6CyVKk0

These are the consumate insiders in the industry.

[seenmostofit]

Someone calling the peak! Is he right, if so, then the fun's about to start!

If? Kind of like guessing the score to the football game after it has been played, and then pretending this signifies clairvoyance.

Peak oil is so...2005.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7284

"Commentators like Richard Deffeyes, Matt Simmons and T. Boone Pickens have targetted 2005 as the year of peak oil. Richard Deffeyes has backed his prediction with analysis based on R/P projections. Matt Simmons no doubt has factored an imminent peak in Saudi production into his calculations. "

[seahorse3]

Seemstofit, I dontnunderstand the point of your post

[seenmostofit]

Seemstofit, I dontnunderstand the point of your post

I apologize for not being clear.

Peak oil apparently happened. The experts said so. Waiting the better part of a decade t declare that it happened means either A) the experts were wrong before, or B) proclaiming it years after it happened and pretending to suddenly notice is no different than Monday morning quarterbacking.

Words of wisdom from the same referenced article.

"My advice? Peak Oil is coming soon, no doubt about it in my mind. But like religious groups who set the date for the Second Coming only to end up looking like fools, some caution is advised. If Peak Oil is postponed for a few more years due to a recession, the number of peak oil books and websites will also decline. If that happens, the actual peak in oil production may arrive with more of a whimper than a bang as scoffers deride those who proclaimed 2005 as the day of reckoning!"

Doesn't this all strike you as a little....deja vu?

[seahorse3]

STF, I don't agree it rings of de ja vu. Like many here, I've been interested in the issue for years. This particular group is new to me. Maybe someone has posted something from them before, if they do, I don't recall. In my own lay opinion, for all practical purposes, we have been at plateau oil since about 2005. I generally think that plateau oil, leading to a higher sustain oil price, has caused problems with the economy which struggles now with higher food and energy costs. It seems to me at least our old debt based model of growth can't handle the increased energy costs and thus the old economic model will have to give way at some point to something different. All that to say, plateau oil and its higher prices seem in my opinion to have a serious economic effect and are or were the trip wire leading to all kinds of subsequent fallout seen now manifesting in the Arab spring, the Current EU problems, and general recessionary world problems that appear to be getting worse, not better. I may be wrong for attributing rising oil cost as a serious contributing cause of the current economic and political problems but that's how I see it. As for PO meaning a decline in world oil production, I don't know if we would ever get to that point or not, simply bc higher oil prices are causing a big enough drop in demand that we limp by on less and less, but me, like many others, don't look forward to living in places like Detroit etc

[dohboi]

The other issues are when we come off the 'bumpy plateau' and what the slope of global production decline will be once that happens. Opinions seem to be converging on the next very few years for that to happen--not more than five. That's when it should start to dawn on anyone with a fraction of sense (i.e. almost no one ) that the era of 'endless growth' is over.

[seenmostofit]

In my own lay opinion, for all practical purposes, we have been at plateau oil since about 2005.

Works for me. Peak oil turned out not to be a peak, but a plateau, and it has stayed there for the better part of a decade. Hubbert might be rolling over in his grave but that certainly is the way the theory crumbles I suppose.

As for PO meaning a decline in world oil production, I don't know if we would ever get to that point or not, simply bc higher oil prices are causing a big enough drop in demand that we limp by on less and less, but me, like many others, don't look forward to living in places like Detroit etc

I recommend not moving there, if you don't wish to live there. Fortunately the beauty of peak, or plateau, oil is that it means there is still plenty around, we are now making it out of other substances (thus bringing about arguements about what oil "is" among the faithful), and we now don't have to rely on crude based fuels to power our daily commuting needs, and the crude based liquid fuels can be tasked to doing important stuff, like running tractors and whatnot.

[Cloud9]

Problem is that gas is creeping up to $4.00 a gallon. We can't grow our way out of debt at $4. We can't pay the unfunded entitlements.

[seenmostofit]

Problem is that gas is creeping up to $4.00 a gallon. We can't grow our way out of debt at $4. We can't pay the unfunded entitlements.

So what.We deflate their value. One of the advantages of having control over the printing of money, versus the mess the EU has gotten itself into.

[Pops]

It seems logical to me the longer the plateau without a pink unicorn coming to the rescue, the closer we are to decline. Pointing to failed predictions only proves failed predictions, whether it's 100Mb/d by 2010 or peak in 05. Same with strawmen of multiple peaks or Oil's Peaked And I Feel Fine.
We are certainly at a plateau, unless an increase of .2%/year over 7 years is normal growth in which case we are cooked. It isn't as if there is no price signal for added supply, prices are the highest ever, have been for over a year. Some blogger the other day said that above $80/bbl or so everyone is producing flat out, once the pedal is to the metal that's all there is and there ain't no more - makes sense to me.

Look at demand in the countries most dependent on cheap personal transport, miles driven in the US is down 8% or so over 7 years, that isn't EVs and better mileage, thats less driving and less waste in response to the price signal and one mans waste is another's bread and butter. Consider also that in each of the last 3 years the economy seems to begin a nice expansion but then as oil prices respond the economy instantly cools - not causation but pretty telling.

You can slice that up and dissemble it til the cows come home, pray to whatever idol of perpetual motion you please and joust with strawmen in every thread here and still all it amounts to whistling past the boneyard.

[seahorse3]

STF I won't move to Detroit. What I fear about an economic/political system based on cheap energy is the world view predicted by Kaplan published inure early 90s titled "The Coming Anarcy" which basically argues that the problems with high poverty plaguing Africa at the time would become the norm in the West. He's had some other interesting pieces as well and seem fairly prescient right now with a diminishing middle class innate US and rising poverty class. I'm reading a book now titled The fourth Turning" published in 97 taking a view that human history is cyclical, that eventually existing economic/political systems fall for various reasons and that the 4th generation is essentially the crisis generation that has to rebuild new institutions. Interesting theory and also seems pretty prescient with the unsustainable entitlment/military complex eebhave built which I would argue was built on cheap oil and will thus have to change. There seems to be good facts with the economic crisis of 2007 we have entered the beginning of that crisis as predicted. What it all means, who knows, except that things are changing

[seenmostofit]

You can slice that up and dissemble it til the cows come home, pray to whatever idol of perpetual motion you please and joust with strawmen in every thread here and still all it amounts to whistling past the boneyard.

That depends on what and how each individual is affected by a gradually lessening supply, and a gradually increasing price. I certainly don't consider commuting to work without burning liquid fuels to be either whistling, whistling past a boneyard, or any mental image designed to reinforce scare mongering of peak oil, be it in 2005 as proclaimed by the experts, or in 2008, or now, or in the future. Certainly the number of predictions just aren't even worth listening to any more, I agree with you that it just isn't worth the effort.

Those price signals you have referenced driving down waste of liquid fuels in the system is a GOOD thing, and it is about time. The sooner people realize that oil is obsolete, and move on to something else, the better.

[seenmostofit]

What it all means, who knows, except that things are changing

Change is always happening, but people aren't always comfortable with it. They adapt, and then suddenly get all cranky with things change again. You would think humans are smart enough to collectively come to understand what change does to their feelings, but that appears to be asking too much of humanity.

[Plantagenet]

Problem is that gas is creeping up to $4.00 a gallon. We can't grow our way out of debt at $4. We can't pay the unfunded entitlements.

So what.We deflate their value. One of the advantages of having control over the printing of money, versus the mess the EU has gotten itself into.

You can't change the value of oil or any other commodity by printing more money, and reducing the value of entitlements by printing money will impoverish millions of people and make the economic depression even worse. Printing money doesn't solve the problem.

[Plantagenet]

The world could thus see radical increases in oil prices. That alone might be sufficient to curb demand, flattening production for perhaps 10 years.
--Colin Campbell


This is just what we've been living through. Oil rose quickly and has quadrupled since 2000. The high price of oil has caused recessions and the oil demand dropped in the US and the EU, and we've flattened the demand curve and seen a global production plateau, starting in about 2005. If Campbell is right, we'll start seeing the beginning of the global drop in production in the next few years, with even more negative consequences for the global economy.

[Pops]

The 4th turning / generational bit is interesting horse. It never occurred to me that the boomers would be the spiritualists, I guess because I fit in as boomer but am at the least agnostic if not atheist. Of course that's just me ad there are lots and lots of zealots out there.

[seenmostofit]

Problem is that gas is creeping up to $4.00 a gallon. We can't grow our way out of debt at $4. We can't pay the unfunded entitlements.

So what.We deflate their value. One of the advantages of having control over the printing of money, versus the mess the EU has gotten itself into.

You can't change the value of oil or any other commodity by printing more money, and reducing the value of entitlements by printing money will impoverish millions of people and make the economic depression even worse. Printing money doesn't solve the problem.

Depends on what you mean by "solve". Sure...price of commodities will increase because of deflating currency....and this will drive even more people to do anything they can to get away from using that particular commodity, like oil. And this is good. Impoverish millions? We have been suffering through inflation as long as you and I have been alive, you think everyone has been impoverished over the past couple of decades, what with the devaluation of our currency at the current rates?

[seenmostofit]

The world could thus see radical increases in oil prices. That alone might be sufficient to curb demand, flattening production for perhaps 10 years.
--Colin Campbell


This is just what we've been living through. Oil rose quickly and has quadrupled since 2000.

And I can just as easily use a real measure of crude price from 1979 to now to show how prices haven't changed much. Cherry picking time frames is never worthy of even minor topics, let alone reasonable ones, like resource depletion.

And if I recall correctly, didn't Campbell recant recently, and decide that peak demand was more important?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/ ... 9420100406

"Peak oil drives prices up in the first place. It has its own mechanism. We're sort of at peak demand right now," Campbell told Reuters from his home in the village of Ballydehob, West Cork. "I think presently the price limit is about $100."

Maybe he was right!! That $100 sure might sound scary to someone driving a monster truck I suppose....I don't really know any more because I try my best to not use the stuff.

If Campbell is right, we'll start seeing the beginning of the global drop in production in the next few years, with even more negative consequences for the global economy.

Thats what he was saying in 1989 as well. So THIS time he means it? Which this time? The one you used? Or the one he claimed in 2010 where $100 oil is IT?